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<blockquote data-quote="Austin7" data-source="post: 6516411" data-attributes="member: 42100"><p>Please forgive my "bullpoo and total arrogance" I may have missed the part of the Governments Leaflet which said "voting to leave meant leaving the CU/SM etc." I attach the document perhaps you could point out to me where it is. Project fear dated June 2016 was a pussy cat as compared with the August 2019 version, The fact that the problems were so downplayed in 2016 led too many to vote leave without fully considering the risks. See Today's Sunday Times Government leak and I copy here the first page of Sean Rickard's Report. Those that have known Sean as long as I have know he is no unthinking Europhile and certainly not always right but in this case facts are facts (B**** it is raining again)</p><p></p><p> </p><p><em><strong>No Deal: the Door to the Decimation of UK Farming</strong></em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><em>By Dr Sean Rickard</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><em>Introduction</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><em>The campaign to leave the EU was based on the idea that the UK would quickly secure a comprehensive new trading relationship with Europe and that leaving would have only positive impacts on UK farming. But today the reality looks very different. Boris Johnson has made it very clear that his over-riding priority as Prime Minister is to take the UK out of the EU by 31st October, if necessary with No Deal, no matter what the cost to the country’s economy and security. The government’s own forecasts and all credible independent forecasters have warned that the economic costs of No Deal will be high and long lasting.</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><em>Many industries will suffer but the industry that would suffer the most serious economic shock will be agriculture. Indeed, the Vote Leave campaign’s co-convenor, Michael Gove, warned in January as Secretary of State for the Environment that “the turbulence which would be generated by our departure without a deal would be considerable” and acknowledged it would hit smaller farm and food businesses hard.1 To understand the consequences of No Deal for agriculture and all those who earn their living in farming and the food industries that depend on its output, we need to separate the economic effects into two stages:</em></p><p><em> </em></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em>The first stage would be the immediate aftermath – in fact it could last several years – where trade in agricultural and food products would be subject to WTO Most Favoured Nations tariff and non-tariff barriers. </em></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em>The second stage would begin after an agreement with the EU on a future trading regime came into operation, the effect of which would be to place the UK’s agricultural and food industries in a weaker trading position than as members of the EU. </em></li> </ul><p><em> </em></p><p><em>Boris Johnson has said that farmers “will have the support they need” in the event of No Deal.2 But he has failed to provide detail about what this would mean in practice. In any case, the problems facing the farming industry in such circumstances would go far beyond the loss of EU subsidies, as this paper explains.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>It is impossible to project the exact number of farmers who will go out of business. What we do know is that over 40% of them will have no net income if the basic payment is removed.3 If at the same time the Government removes all tariffs and so depresses prices, these two factors combined will render over 50% of farms in this country unviable. The possibility of any compensation from the government going anywhere near offsetting this is remote because so many promises have been made to so many other sectors and not all can be fulfilled. </em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><em> [ATTACH=full]828230[/ATTACH] </em></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Austin7, post: 6516411, member: 42100"] Please forgive my "bullpoo and total arrogance" I may have missed the part of the Governments Leaflet which said "voting to leave meant leaving the CU/SM etc." I attach the document perhaps you could point out to me where it is. Project fear dated June 2016 was a pussy cat as compared with the August 2019 version, The fact that the problems were so downplayed in 2016 led too many to vote leave without fully considering the risks. See Today's Sunday Times Government leak and I copy here the first page of Sean Rickard's Report. Those that have known Sean as long as I have know he is no unthinking Europhile and certainly not always right but in this case facts are facts (B**** it is raining again) [I][B]No Deal: the Door to the Decimation of UK Farming[/B] By Dr Sean Rickard Introduction The campaign to leave the EU was based on the idea that the UK would quickly secure a comprehensive new trading relationship with Europe and that leaving would have only positive impacts on UK farming. But today the reality looks very different. Boris Johnson has made it very clear that his over-riding priority as Prime Minister is to take the UK out of the EU by 31st October, if necessary with No Deal, no matter what the cost to the country’s economy and security. The government’s own forecasts and all credible independent forecasters have warned that the economic costs of No Deal will be high and long lasting. Many industries will suffer but the industry that would suffer the most serious economic shock will be agriculture. Indeed, the Vote Leave campaign’s co-convenor, Michael Gove, warned in January as Secretary of State for the Environment that “the turbulence which would be generated by our departure without a deal would be considerable” and acknowledged it would hit smaller farm and food businesses hard.1 To understand the consequences of No Deal for agriculture and all those who earn their living in farming and the food industries that depend on its output, we need to separate the economic effects into two stages: [/I] [LIST] [*][I]The first stage would be the immediate aftermath – in fact it could last several years – where trade in agricultural and food products would be subject to WTO Most Favoured Nations tariff and non-tariff barriers. [/I] [*][I]The second stage would begin after an agreement with the EU on a future trading regime came into operation, the effect of which would be to place the UK’s agricultural and food industries in a weaker trading position than as members of the EU. [/I] [/LIST] [I] Boris Johnson has said that farmers “will have the support they need” in the event of No Deal.2 But he has failed to provide detail about what this would mean in practice. In any case, the problems facing the farming industry in such circumstances would go far beyond the loss of EU subsidies, as this paper explains. It is impossible to project the exact number of farmers who will go out of business. What we do know is that over 40% of them will have no net income if the basic payment is removed.3 If at the same time the Government removes all tariffs and so depresses prices, these two factors combined will render over 50% of farms in this country unviable. The possibility of any compensation from the government going anywhere near offsetting this is remote because so many promises have been made to so many other sectors and not all can be fulfilled. [ATTACH type="full" alt="828230"]828230[/ATTACH] [/I] [/QUOTE]
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