Farmer Roy's Random Thoughts - I never said it was easy.

Farmer Roy · Oct 2, 2019

yes, traditionally "droughts" have presented great opportunities to many
and yes, it is "typical" & normal

short term - prices are stagnant because nothing is selling
the general feeling is that "if" seasons return to normal, there will be a flood of properties on the market

my longer term concern is if this is the new "normal", then property values will totally collapse

the decision to sell is made harder if there are no buyers in the market . . .

a friend of mine who was farming down on the Lachlan in the 90's / early 2000's was really hammered during the "millennium" drought. When he finally made the decision to sell, it took him another 2 years to actually sell the place. 6000 acres with about 1500 irrigation. He got out with nothing. Moved to Brisbane & got a franchise with a lawn care company ( he was an agronomist by training ). Was renting in Brissy for 10 yrs or more - finally was able to buy himself a house this year . . .

Farmer Roy · Oct 2, 2019

Kiwi Pete said:
I assume value is added by microclimate, not soil classification, same as here?

oh yeah

this deep heavy alluvial floodplain soil type covers a vast area of north western NSW & southern Qld.
Very similar soil all the way ( same geological history ), but yes microclimate can vary a lot & is reflected in land values. ie - same soil, 200km north & 200km west of here has lower value because of lower rainfall & higher summer temps

unfortunately, OUR microclimate has moved 200km north & 200km west - or further . . .

that is the future im contemplating as a best case scenario - I fear it could be much more extreme

Kiwi Pete · Oct 2, 2019

Funny how the comments of "oh, but you have cheap land and massive scale" have finally stopped....

only took 'em a couple of years to cotton on

Farmer Roy · Oct 2, 2019

unfair advantages

just like the Kiwis & Canadians - all so many unfair advantages

Kiwi Pete · Oct 2, 2019

I have hail unfairly advantaging me right now.... moving the cattle at midnight

they might find it nicer being unfairly advantaged under some trees.

Farmer Roy · Oct 2, 2019

Kiwi Pete said:
Funny how the comments of "oh, but you have cheap land and massive scale" have finally stopped.... only took 'em a couple of years to cotton on

I wonder what happened to the "Boss" ?

Kiwi Pete · Oct 2, 2019

Still about, last time I saw him he was wondering what else to feed his big cattle other than grass and clover.

It's a funny old where we expect to make money from buying expensive crap to churn out cheap commodities.
At 450kg the only thing they need is another month at grass and a ride on a truck....

Kiwi Pete · Oct 2, 2019

Getting the outfield ready for cricket, Bruce has got his sheep off it and my sister (and niece) are doing a grand job with the ballast roller. Shame about the snow on the hills.

TelesnaAg · Oct 2, 2019

CornishTone said:
Ummm... I think he was referring to the state of the land as a result of no rain rather than making any sort of political statement.

Nope its connected, economy is dying, a sad ag sector reaches far and wide....

Ant..

TelesnaAg · Oct 2, 2019

Well the canary isn't hanging around Portland thats for sure, same ol same ol here, this year a touch drier but made no difference to feed and years not done yet, last few years been wet.

When i first dame here alot said i was mad, especially trying cropping, but once you get the dirt right and method it can be done.

Ant...

TelesnaAg · Oct 2, 2019

I follow alot of mining projects, and theres alot of talk about green energy and EV vehicles, but the minerals projects aren't going with it and in some metals demand is poor, so it doesn't match the publicity.

Getting money to start these projects is almost impossible as you need a billion to start a cobalt nickel operation, to get it to stage it will pass environmental requirements. Some copper gold ops a bit less but cost is high.

The logisitics of the acids and tailings dams really making life tough, and its making Africa look more attractive and Argentina. Some sth America countries will win with easy enviro law and more corruption.

Australia has some top notch resources for EV and rare earths, but no govt backing, and rio and bhp and the like aren't really snapping up reserves for the future either, but these 2 have made monumental fuccck ups in last 20 years and i think they will caught napping, along with oz government.

Ant...

Pond digger · Oct 2, 2019

Kiwi Pete said:
Funny about the "canary in the coalmine" statement, that statement lead me to signing up to TFF in the first place.
Dad always said that the UK would be 30-40 years ahead of NZ in terms of regulation, and I could learn a lot about our future from observing UK Ag, give me time to prepare and position and "futureproof yourself".

As it turns out, that's exactly what we've done: learn about farming water from the Aussies and learn about farming rules from the Brits.

Are things really 30-40yrs in front here? I would have guessed no more than half that.

Kiwi Pete · Oct 2, 2019

Pond digger said:
Are things really 30-40yrs in front here? I would have guessed no more than half that.

Last 10 years, NZ probably caught up 30 TBH.
That same crippling, bloated bureaucratic bullsheet that basically means: nothing of any value happens, at great expense to anyone daft enough to be caught doing something

(You'll probably know more about NZ than I do, if you read the news! )

I tend to shut it all out and do my own thing, happiness isn't optional with me anymore.
I gave up giving a sh!t a long time ago, helped immensely with the happiness

Steel · Oct 2, 2019

Farmer Roy said:
oh yeah

this deep heavy alluvial floodplain soil type covers a vast area of north western NSW & southern Qld.
Very similar soil all the way ( same geological history ), but yes microclimate can vary a lot & is reflected in land values. ie - same soil, 200km north & 200km west of here has lower value because of lower rainfall & higher summer temps

unfortunately, OUR microclimate has moved 200km north & 200km west - or further . . .

that is the future im contemplating as a best case scenario - I fear it could be much more extreme

A few people make a lot of money buying during droughts and selling when things are good. I used to go hunting on a 44,000 acre place out west. A local farmer bought the place in the middle of the 2000’s drought for $14/acre. A couple of years ago when things were looking good he sold for $60/acre, and it has not rained on the place since.

Kiwi Pete · Oct 2, 2019

Being a good farmer just pales to insignificance compared to being a good investor.

Henarar · Oct 2, 2019

Kiwi Pete said:
at great expense to anyone daft enough to be caught doing something

that made me laugh, about right though

Henarar · Oct 2, 2019

Kiwi Pete said:
Being a good farmer just pales to insignificance compared to being a good investor.

Only as far as money is concerned

Kiwi Pete · Oct 2, 2019

Henarar said:
that made me laugh, about right though

If I couldn't laugh, I wouldn't know what to do.
The world is fecked, we seem to have this crazy idea that "we must preserve life at all costs" and really the bit that matters is "at all costs" - literally killing the show to live

Henarar said:
Only as far as money is concerned

And that's the punchline. The filthy lucre.

What does money cost?

CornishTone · Oct 2, 2019

TelesnaAg said:
Nope its connected, economy is dying, a sad ag sector reaches far and wide....

Ant..

No, he was commenting on the land he sees traveling around in the course of his work. No rain. Dry. Dead. His use of the word “country” was a reference to the countryside. His use of the word “fûcked” was a reference to that land being unproductive due to drought.

I’m not sure even your towering intellect is able to interpret a conversation you were not privy to.

Kiwi Pete · Oct 2, 2019

Farmer Roy's Random Thoughts - I never said it was easy.

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