Are you ready for Brexit

czechmate · Nov 10, 2019

I assume after Brexit there will be no more rain events @Forage Trader ?

In the uk, that is.

Hilly · Nov 10, 2019

Cowabunga said:
On WTO terms that will be the tariff. So you think we can compete with NZ into China?

We have been competing with no fir decades , our lamb is currently cheapest in the world , Scotland lowest subbed country in the Eu with the worst weather . And we compete already.

Hilly · Nov 10, 2019

ford4000 said:
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/lo...th it and get brexit done........ :banghead:

http://The value of hill farms is m...scare mongering / worst case / won’t happen .

Hilly · Nov 10, 2019

neilo said:
And why wouldn’t they? I thought it was a master stroke, folks seem to get taken in by any old shite if you write it on a big red bus. Enough people might even believe it as fact that they’ll ‘win’ the election.?

It wasn’t so much a lie as a massive underestimate, the true figure is estimated at three times but I doubt we will ever find out the truth.

Cowabunga · Nov 10, 2019

Forage Trader said:
We cant send lamb to China they wont except our lamb atm . To get the best deal on a product you have to have market options , Remember what you did to Boris . Castrated him with the surrender act . Same thing

tepapa said:
I'm sure you will have written somewhere that it takes the EU years/decades to do trade deals. So why would the EU want to do a trade deal to send lamb to China knowing it will reduce its own supply. And then will the deal get passed by the 27 ? Because in fact it will only really benefit the UK farmers So I would doubt there would be much incentive for the EU to push a deal through. So a potential market for lamb is lost but that's ok because we supply cheap lamb to the EU.

Forage Trader said:
But the EU would never put self interest first would they . Of course they would rob their other 27 countries of cheap lamb so the uk could benefit ,

Best of luck with all that when all the trade negotiators and experts are telling you that the trade will be devastated and sheep farmers will be virtually wiped out. Which is presumably why so many sheep farmers in Ceredigion are putting dairy units up. They must know something you don't, except for the steep learning curve that they are set on.

Henarar · Nov 10, 2019

well that's good news for sheep farmers

Hilly · Nov 10, 2019

Cowabunga said:
Best of luck with all that when all the trade negotiators and experts are telling you that the trade will be devastated and sheep farmers will be virtually wiped out. Which is presumably why so many sheep farmers in Ceredigion are putting dairy units up. They must know something you don't, except for the steep learning curve that they are set on.

They are putting dairy units up because the sheep job after how many years in the Eu is fooked any way and more money in dairy.

Cowabunga · Nov 10, 2019

Hilly said:
They are putting dairy units up because the sheep job after how many years in the Eu is fooked any way and more money in dairy.

Some of them are in for a nasty shock, I've no doubt. Many are from hill farming families that have bought lowland from their massive and various hill subsidies. They have made a living in the lowland in the same way up until now when they see the subsidy dwindling to little more than a pittance per acre.
No more fox hunting all winter for these guys after going into dairy!

bobk · Nov 10, 2019

Cowabunga said:
Some of them are in for a nasty shock, I've no doubt. Many are from hill farming families that have bought lowland from their massive and various hill subsidies. They have made a living in the lowland in the same way up until now when they see the subsidy dwindling to little more than a pittance per acre.
No more fox hunting all winter for these guys after going into dairy!

My cousin has just bought 2 dairy units in your area , takes it to 8 now .

neilo · Nov 10, 2019

Forage Trader said:
But the EU would never put self interest first would they . Of course they would rob their other 27 countries of cheap lamb so the uk could benefit ,

The French and German sheep farmers, with their smaller scale (small farms having been supported in those EU countries

) and high costs, would dearly love us to sell our lamb elsewhere, enabling them to sell their own lamb competitively.

Derrick Hughes · Nov 10, 2019

neilo said:
The French and German sheep farmers, with their smaller scale (small farms having been supported in those EU countries ) and high costs, would dearly love us to sell our lamb elsewhere, enabling them to sell their own lamb competitively.

Well be nice too have two buyers in the ring isted of one

farmerm · Nov 10, 2019

Forage Trader said:
We cant send lamb to China they wont except our lamb atm . To get the best deal on a product you have to have market options , Remember what you did to Boris . Castrated him with the surrender act . Same thing

In all seriousness, if this is a fact, what is the reasoning for China not accepting our lamb at the moment? If the UK ends up operating on full WTO rules after Brexit there wont be much to stop UK buyers for purchasing any crap from anywhere, the only limitations will be can they get it at an acceptable spec at the right price.

tepapa said:
I'm sure you will have written somewhere that it takes the EU years/decades to do trade deals. So why would the EU want to do a trade deal to send lamb to China knowing it will reduce its own supply. And then will the deal get passed by the 27 ? Because in fact it will only really benefit the UK farmers So I would doubt there would be much incentive for the EU to push a deal through. So a potential market for lamb is lost but that's ok because we supply cheap lamb to the EU.

I doubt lamb is anything more than an afterthought in any comprehensive trade deal negotiations....

That said it does appear the UK has been in long standing negotiations with China, specifically to open doors for red meat. I see after 5 years of talks a wonderful new trade arrangement on UK beef to China was announced only 2 weeks ago...

https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Headlines/Industry-Markets/Britain-China-beef-trade-deal-finalised

Now, I haven't been tracking beef price closely, has there been a sudden leap in the value of cattle on the back of this massive new market opening up?

I am not sure how being in the EU has impeded this process to date, the agreement has come from negotiations whilst the UK was still inside the EU and as it comes despite there still being not absolute certainty that we will ever leave. China's recent softening possible has something to do with its need to replace its decimated supply of pork, at least in the short term.... When the barriers to trade are none tariff ones as seems to be the case for red meat supplies to China, being inside or outside of the EU is pretty irrelevant, nations do have the ability to make rewarding trade arrangements.

Tarw Coch · Nov 10, 2019

Cowabunga said:
Best of luck with all that when all the trade negotiators and experts are telling you that the trade will be devastated and sheep farmers will be virtually wiped out. Which is presumably why so many sheep farmers in Ceredigion are putting dairy units up. They must know something you don't, except for the steep learning curve that they are set on.

They must know something I don’t....................or maybe I know something they don’t, with recent news of Muller giving notice to 14 producers on Scotland, Meadow giving notice to 50 producers and prior to that, Muller giving notice to 25 In the East Midlands there is allready talk of the market being over supplied , do these farmers planning on getting into milk have a market for it? Is it wanted? I have long thought that if many think the solution to their problems is going into milk that it will bring the milk market down, it might not be the bed of roses they think and could no doubt make life rather unpleasant for many others.

Derrick Hughes · Nov 10, 2019

Given that we have a 20 billion trade deficit with China , can anyone who understands the job better than me explain why we are not selling them Lamb ?

neilo · Nov 10, 2019

Forage Trader said:
Given that we have a 20 billion trade deficit with China , can anyone who understands the job better than me explain why we are not selling them Lamb ?

I think BSE closed a lot of red meat export destinations overnight. Japan has recently accepted us again, such is the length of time it takes to sort trade deals, all to often.
China is only now looking to import lots of meat/protein because of the mass slaughter of their pig herd through ASF, and the trade war with the US (that's the Effect of punitive tariffs). They have history of building great trading relationships, then dropping them overnight, so hardly a long term basket to have all your eggs in.

Derrick Hughes · Nov 10, 2019

neilo said:
I think BSE closed a lot of red meat export destinations overnight. Japan has recently accepted us again, such is the length of time it takes to sort trade deals, all to often.
China is only now looking to import lots of meat/protein because of the mass slaughter of their pig herd through ASF, and the trade war with the US (that's the Effect of punitive tariffs). They have history of building great trading relationships, then dropping them overnight, so hardly a long term basket to have all your eggs in.

New Zealand dont think so . They aint sending much to the EU now

neilo · Nov 10, 2019

Forage Trader said:
New Zealand dont think so . They aint sending much to the EU now

You’re right. The Chinese companies that have bought up half of NZ are indeed selling lots back into China.?

Hilly · Nov 11, 2019

Bse did is doing some damage to uk agriculture, worst thing to ever happen in my time brexit will be walk in the park in comparison .

Courier · Nov 11, 2019

Hilly said:
Bse did is doing some damage to uk agriculture, worst thing to ever happen in my time brexit will be walk in the park in comparison .

UK Ag didn't vote to have BSE but it did finish a lot of farmers and farms..

Henarar · Nov 11, 2019

Courier said:
UK Ag didn't vote to have BSE but it did finish a lot of farmers and farms..

did in a way, how many farmers vote torry ?

Are you ready for Brexit

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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