When will everything stop going up ?.

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
It's going to get messy I think. In preparation we've fixed two largish loans back in March before rates rose so sitting pretty now at under 4% total rate. We put off a cottage renovation for 18 months but just starting it now as materials have come back a bit and we now have tradesmen looking for work back at realistic rates. We ordered a kitchen and has now dropped by 30% in price since a year ago and instead of being an 8 month wait is now only 6 weeks. We've plumbed the houses on the farm into a straw boiler so have stopped buying kerosene and just using straw out the fields. Got a house rented in a local town that has gone up by £100k in 6 years so probably going to sell it over the next few weeks as my gut feeling is house prices are going to collapse by Q1 in 2023. Talking to our bank last week and they won't now lend a business money to buy domestic property to rent out. Happy to give a personal montage though. Got land lined up to rent out for potatoes and possibly carrots as well as some maize for AD. Ws going to change the loader and buy anther used tractor but we've shelved both those ideas as well. Talking to a local dealer about both those items they said things had cooled off a bit. Lead times on new stuff is still mad but they have noticed a drop in interest of both new and used equipment over the last few weeks. Interestingly they mentioned a very large outfit who I know farm about 6000 ac as well as run a big contracting outfit specialising in AD work and they normally are replacing stuff regularly but have decided to run stuff out of warranty and take the risk instead of changing and staying on the never ending finance treadmill. I just feel things are going to take a turn for the worst unless we get a new government which may just stall it a bit. I hate to say this but I think if we had an election I would be voting labour as I think they at the moment would do a better job than the current bunch who quite frankly are a disaster under Boris. Even if Boris went I don't think they can turn it around.
l don't think any party can easily sort this recession out, they are all a bunch of muppets. Its a case of deciding who is the least useless.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
The whole system was going to collapse one day, it is unsustainable, in its present form, the conservatives were unlucky, that it happened in their term, just as lucky for labour, it wasn't in theirs.
There's no easy way out either, despite the political promises from all politicians, it has to work through its course, history tells us that. The bigger worry, is what we emerge to, rather thing the tiger economies, of the east, may well have overtaken us, in the west, their labour pool, has very different expectations of life, to them, our living standards are something, they can only dream of, and work like maniacs, to try and improve their lifestyle. We on the other hand, expect it, realism is going to be a nasty shock to a lot of people here.
 

milkloss

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
There is a very real potential for energy costs, including fuel and electricity and maybe fertiliser, to triple its current cost by early Winter 2022 unless OPEC start pumping a lot more oil. I mean a lot more. Like 20 to 30% more if Russia turns off the taps completely. OPEC are not thus inclined so far and I’m doubtful whether they could if they were so inclined. Not even counting Iran being unsanctioned and back in the market.
The amount of oil isn’t the problem…… refinery capacity is. I was reading something the other day that in the states the refinery are running at 97 odd % capacity which isn’t good as something is going to give. No one has invested in new capacity greater then 100k barrels a day since 1977!! And they’re not likely to either with a president like Joe who has sworn he will shut down big oil in the US
 

toquark

Member
The amount of oil isn’t the problem…… refinery capacity is. I was reading something the other day that in the states the refinery are running at 97 odd % capacity which isn’t good as something is going to give. No one has invested in new capacity greater then 100k barrels a day since 1977!! And they’re not likely to either with a president like Joe who has sworn he will shut down big oil in the US
The disinvestment from the oil and gas sector in Western economies is a major problem. It takes a long time to get these facilities up and running and even if there was a complete sea change in policy, it would be years before we see any meaningful difference.

The world's awash with oil and gas but while we've spent the last 30 years trying to work out how not to use it, the Russians and Chinese have been doing the exact opposite.
 

Tubbylew

Member
Location
Herefordshire
I’m curious do you expect to get it debt free? Why should your parents clear all debt? With inflation quite possible that debt is insignificant in terms of the value of the property. If you do find yourself burdened with a 50 yr mortgage half or more paid off I’d say there would be plenty of takers to help you out of it!
Servicing debt is all very well if your fit and healthy, who would want debt linked to the roof over your head when your in your eighties or nineties and the care home is looming?
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
Exactly 90 % were far poorer than the rich the poor didnt own their house, they didnt go on holiday or 9wn a car, standards of living are far far higher if you tax more you tax far more people and even Gordon Brown admitted the 50 % tax rate reduced tax taken in. The way to increase tax intake is to tax voluntary spending more, ie booze, fags, holidays, certain types of cars, TVs etc people can then choose to be taxed or not
After ww1 it was property they taxed, not the poor who buy fags and booze and have to drive to work
Property taxes cant be avoided if they are applied correctly.
 

robs1

Member
After ww1 it was property they taxed, not the poor who buy fags and booze and have to drive to work
Property taxes cant be avoided if they are applied correctly.
Yes but the difference is after ww1 very few people owned property even farmers were more likely to be tenants as my grandparents were, thesedays far more people would be impacted, iht is already higher due to the freeze on iht threshold and if ag or property relief was abolished it would destroy the tories.
 

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
I see that local beef is now ‘too expensive’ for school meals, and that caterers are switching to ‘cheaper imported meats’….
Well, I do hope it’s all Red Tractor assured; I believe I read that it’s ‘what the customer wants’..
After paying the cook and other overheads the remaining budget of 87p/child to provide a dinner and a pudding makes even road kill badger too expensive! And to be clear I didn't make up the 87p, that really is the budget at the local primary!
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
Yes but the difference is after ww1 very few people owned property even farmers were more likely to be tenants as my grandparents were, thesedays far more people would be impacted, iht is already higher due to the freeze on iht threshold and if ag or property relief was abolished it would destroy the tories.
After Ww1, the only people with money who could be taxed were landlords, today exactly 100 yrs since the first labour govt
(Thats why 1922 commitee was formed)
The situation is the same.
 

Lowland1

Member
Mixed Farmer
A government minister did say people could save money by putting a pullover on instead of the heating, the press tore him to shreds,


As I’ve said before politicians aren’t working for the public good just their own personal gain. So if telling the truth isn’t going to get you re-elected no one is going to speak the truth. The prime example being a certain B.Johnson esquire of Westminster. It’s a bit like the fuel protests blocking the motorways surely the best way to make your disquiet known is to use less fuel. That hits the fuel companies harder than filling your car up and taking to the motorways.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
politicians are a slimy lot of people, niether good, or bad, just somewhere in between
one has to admire there complete failure, to answer direct questions, if it doesn't suit them, or giving long speeches, which contain nothing of substance.
there again, perhaps we don't want them to be, to honest, the world of politics, sits in its own little dirty world, full of back stabbing, little deals on the side, cosy arrangements etc. And if they were dealing with politicians, from another country, with the same attributes, wouldn't we prefer ours, be more devious than there's ? There's nothing nice about politics, its a dirty old trade, but the money, and expenses are quite good.
We have friends, whose son is about to enter the political scene, you have to create the right image. even adapt your name, to suit, its taken several years of 'training' to project himself, and he is destined for the higher ranks of politicians. Funny thing, l have no idea which party he affiliates himself with, even asked, and had a long non-political answer.
And as for scandals, not sure any party can gain the moral stand, each party, seems to have a fair dose of bad'uns.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
As I’ve said before politicians aren’t working for the public good just their own personal gain. So if telling the truth isn’t going to get you re-elected no one is going to speak the truth. The prime example being a certain B.Johnson esquire of Westminster. It’s a bit like the fuel protests blocking the motorways surely the best way to make your disquiet known is to use less fuel. That hits the fuel companies harder than filling your car up and taking to the motorways.
So we should not buy deisel and leave our crops to rot in the fields ?
 

Lowland1

Member
Mixed Farmer
So we should not buy deisel and leave our crops to rot in the fields ?
I don’t know how you came across that as what I meant ? I said use less fuel. Everyone wants to live as they have before farmers included. The truth of it is you can’t. So what’s the plan? Run your central heating a 80F until you run out of money or turn it down to 60 and make your money last longer. Likewise if you can’t pay your bills by working a 35 hour week you’ll need to do some overtime or look for a second job that’s the truth of it as a farmer you’ll know that’s how life works every day we get setbacks but we work round them. That’s what the general public need to know.
 
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robs1

Member
After Ww1, the only people with money who could be taxed were landlords, today exactly 100 yrs since the first labour govt
(Thats why 1922 commitee was formed)
The situation is the same.
That simply isnt true,100 years ago people paid rent then bought food and fuel plus a bit of beer and cheap furniture. Today people spend far less on food and far more on discretionary spending all of which have VAT on which could be increased without affecting the ability to buy good and heat
 

robs1

Member
I don’t know how you came across that as what I meant ? I said use less fuel. Everyone wants to live as they have before farmers included. The truth of it is you can’t. So what’s the plan? Run your central heating a 80F until you run out of money or turn it down to 60 and make your money last longer. Likewise if you can’t pay your bills by working a 35 hour week you’ll need to do some overtime or look for a second job that’s the truth of it as a farmer you’ll know that’s how life works every day we get setbacks but we work round them. That’s what the general public need to know.
As long as you have the MSM and whichever parties that are in opposition blaming whichever party that is in power the truth will never be told. How do we change that I have no idea
 
I've had three joiners visit about fitting new windows, none have got back to me. Another half dozen didn't come because they are "too busy". Maybe I'll leave them until there's a recession.

I can assure you over this way [Grimsby NE lincs] my joinery work has dried up massively .

Gone from worked booked 6 weeks plus in front and multiple calls /quotes a day to less than 3 call a week over last couple of months I have a great customer feedback do a good solid job [ no bodging]

The jobs I do quote not getting apart from odd little sub £100 jobs mainly age UK jobs [age uk trusted trader]. No one has got spare cash or not willing to spend it. Had customers trying to haggle on quotes all the time lately rather than the odd one been doing this over 20 years last time it was this bad was 2009 but this feels worse



All the best ghost rider
 

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