Egg market - Where is the truth?

Location
Scotland
The BBC has reported the imminent collapse of the UK egg market.
Large numbers of farms are apparently not restocking.
8 million fewer hens are on order over this time a year ago.
AI - Yes, but let's not let the retaillers use that as an excuse.

The squeeze/collapse that many in the industry have been warning about for a year may finally be here.

And yet:
The on farm egg price is not increasing as it should if packers were desperate to lock up any available supply.
BFREPA claim there are offers of £1.40 /doz out there.
I would say in response - where?

Is it the case that supermarkets have fixed length / price deals with the packers and so don't need to pay more yet?
Their business model allows them to pay more so long as their competition is also paying more.
So they will just wait until the last minute and only then pay what they need.

The packers meanwhile are stuck with contracts to supply certain amounts of volume with a diminishing supply off the farms.
Will they face penalties if they don't meet their required volumes?

Or is it the case that, against a recent history of oversupply, despite the shouting, there isn't enough of a shortage to produce a significant change in the power dynamic and price?
Or, to be more blunt, there are still too many farms prepare to supply.
 

Pan mixer

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Near Colchester
The BBC has reported the imminent collapse of the UK egg market.
Large numbers of farms are apparently not restocking.
8 million fewer hens are on order over this time a year ago.
AI - Yes, but let's not let the retaillers use that as an excuse.

The squeeze/collapse that many in the industry have been warning about for a year may finally be here.

And yet:
The on farm egg price is not increasing as it should if packers were desperate to lock up any available supply.
BFREPA claim there are offers of £1.40 /doz out there.
I would say in response - where?

Is it the case that supermarkets have fixed length / price deals with the packers and so don't need to pay more yet?
Their business model allows them to pay more so long as their competition is also paying more.
So they will just wait until the last minute and only then pay what they need.

The packers meanwhile are stuck with contracts to supply certain amounts of volume with a diminishing supply off the farms.
Will they face penalties if they don't meet their required volumes?

Or is it the case that, against a recent history of oversupply, despite the shouting, there isn't enough of a shortage to produce a significant change in the power dynamic and price?
Or, to be more blunt, there are still too many farms prepare to supply.
If it is like the pig job, the packers (processors) will just import the difference, cut it here and call it British.
 

Wolds Beef

Member
There is a Lady supplies point of Lay Near Alford(Lincolnshire), wether she can at the moment I am not sure!! Somone told me they are already bringing eggs in from abroad.
I have 7 hens, have just adjusted there timer for light, they are laying well maybe I should put security on!!
WB
 

Jerry

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Devon
My buggers are inside and have decided to stop laying….slackers!!

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Location
Scotland
Our first crop is clearing on the 16th of January and the packer wants us back in on the 2nd of February, can't get enough eggs apparently.
My advice would be to have a long turn around. Squeeze the supply a little, do a really good clean job, and not kill yourself doing it.
Plus we don't know what the AI situation will be then. Don't want to be risking placing birds in the middle of a local outbreak.
 
Location
Scotland
Didn't the recent government report on food say that supplies would be resilient due to the wonderful procurement strategies of our supermarkets?
I would suggest that the government "report" was set up to say that nothing needs to change. With everything going on, no govt is going to kick the hornets nest of reforming the food market. That is IF they understood the truly precarious state of affairs.
The egg market at the moment is the perfect example of how the supermarkets are the problem, not the solution.
Correct if we all accept the status quo.
However, if the farmers were to use this situation to change the dynamics of the industry, that could be different. Probably the only opportunity for a generation.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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