Fertiliser Price Tracker

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
I believe it is more serious and will take much longer.
Nobody in authority seems to understand the knife edge that UK ag is sat on.
Unless something changes, it is looking like the cost of producing grain in 2023 could be more than its market value. Bearing in mind there will be calls for price capping if there is a profit to be made [by farmers].

Livestock farming is being really hammered [except dairy] and fertiliser for grass is very unlikely to pay.
Kill numbers for cattle and sheep are slowly declining but that hides the major issue which is that a lot of breeding stock are being killed. It will take years to increase meat production and demand for feeding cereals.

I would also imagine there is a lot less fertiliser in the UK today compared to a year ago and there will be a lot less to add to that in the next year compared to usual.

This is all without the major crisis that would result from loss of critical mass.
i think its more widely spread, than just the UK, look at the protests all over the EU.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
Is this what putin wants. Anarchy across Europe. Like someone mentioned if gas is short it won’t go to making fertiliser.
well, he's a clever bugger, and desperate to sort his 'miscalculation' out. Surprising Europe has held together, for so long, one could have thought that some countries, would have weakened on their determination, to oppose putrid, by now. With winter coming ........... I am sure there is 'discussions' going on, behind closed doors.

At the same time, one could believe 'discussions', are going on, behind putrids back. He must be desperate to find a way out, without looking like he's a loser, he would be soon gone.
So anything to promote discord, within his neighbours, especially as they are arming Ukraine, would be of great assistance to him.

The longer the war goes on, the more dangerous it gets, the Russians have taken a hammering, UK defence sources estimate 75,000 casualties, and billions of dollars worth of equipment, airplanes and ships. If he is forced to withdraw, he's finished, and therefore, he is desperate, and desperate men do desperate things, like nuclear. So if he can break Europes united front, he will do all he can possibly do, to achieve it.

One assumes the politicians we elect, have at least some intelligence, but they appear to be sleep walking into a major disaster. They seem incapable of joining the facts together, less fert, means less food, and they still want to continue their green agenda. You can rightly guess, the extension of nuclear power stations, and keeping coal powered ones, open, will have met with fierce criticism, howls of protest, possibly encouraged by Moscow, what do those idiots think will happen ? Probably answered my own question, they don't think.
 

Barleymow

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Ipswich
What they really don’t realise is the length of time it could take to ramp food production back up if it dwindles too low, could easily be in excess of 12 months, for example, say the penny finally drops end of May next year, too late for sowing then so crops going into the ground for harvest July/August the following year.

Similar if the crops are in the ground but haven’t received any/a full dose of fertiser , end of May would be too late to get a response on most crops even if at the drop of a hat the government could do something to suddenly increase the use of fertiliser on crops
Pork will be in short supply with the number of sows being slaughtered here and in eu
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
Exactly, no demand for what we already produce. Apart from milk.
that is the missing part of policy.
where is the replacement food coming from ?
guv assumes it can be imported cheaper than home produced, but can it ?
fert price is a global problem, and will push prices up, fuel is also a global price, which pushes transport costs up.
Those cheaper imports, now face competition from buyers in other countries, that are finding the same problems as us.
Global food production is very close to demand, and could easily dip under, if problems, such as drought or war occur.
Whatever happens, people have to eat, and they have to pay for it. We could well be seeing the end of the cheap food era. About time to, guv policies have had cheap food as a major part of policy, for 50 yrs.
And l doubt politicians even have a clue where their 'green' policies' are going to take them. Certainly not food shortages/expensive.
but as someone posted earlier, it will take a long time to ramp production back up. Guvs have sown the seeds, and we just might reap the rewards.
 

B'o'B

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Rutland
that is the missing part of policy.
where is the replacement food coming from ?
guv assumes it can be imported cheaper than home produced, but can it ?
fert price is a global problem, and will push prices up, fuel is also a global price, which pushes transport costs up.
Those cheaper imports, now face competition from buyers in other countries, that are finding the same problems as us.
Global food production is very close to demand, and could easily dip under, if problems, such as drought or war occur.
Whatever happens, people have to eat, and they have to pay for it. We could well be seeing the end of the cheap food era. About time to, guv policies have had cheap food as a major part of policy, for 50 yrs.
And l doubt politicians even have a clue where their 'green' policies' are going to take them. Certainly not food shortages/expensive.
but as someone posted earlier, it will take a long time to ramp production back up. Guvs have sown the seeds, and we just might reap the rewards.
3.9m tonnes of wheat, 4.1m tonnes of maize, 12.1m tonnes of sugar beet, 0.4m tonnes of barley and 0.4m tonnes of rye goes into bio-ethanol in Europe alone. On to of that 15.3m tonnes of rape and 3.5m tonnes of soya into bio-diesel. Those appear to be 2012 figures and they will have only gone up since then. It seems there is quite a bit of food going to fuel to act as a buffer if really needed.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
3.9m tonnes of wheat, 4.1m tonnes of maize, 12.1m tonnes of sugar beet, 0.4m tonnes of barley and 0.4m tonnes of rye goes into bio-ethanol in Europe alone. On to of that 15.3m tonnes of rape and 3.5m tonnes of soya into bio-diesel. Those appear to be 2012 figures and they will have only gone up since then. It seems there is quite a bit of food going to fuel to act as a buffer if really needed.
will the green zealots allow that to change, without causing a massive protest ?
Yes it is stupid to process food into fuel, when its in short supply.
But that would take a reversal of promises, made by many countries, to reduce the use of fossil fuels. More importantly, what would it take, to convince politicians they were wrong to go down that path ? That is assuming they understand the reason for reversal, which is doubtful.
Even then, there would be years of debates, as to the reasons to change, even then, the greens wouldn't want to change it anyway.
Unfortuantly, it will take a massive disaster to even start the discussion, and then, years to get it sorted out, or production ramped up.
But its not only bio-ethanol that is the problem, masses of food is wasted, and ends up in landfill. There is a requirement, for a sensible discussion, on the whole subject, very unachievable at the moment.
 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
will the green zealots allow that to change, without causing a massive protest ?
Yes it is stupid to process food into fuel, when its in short supply.
But that would take a reversal of promises, made by many countries, to reduce the use of fossil fuels. More importantly, what would it take, to convince politicians they were wrong to go down that path ? That is assuming they understand the reason for reversal, which is doubtful.
Even then, there would be years of debates, as to the reasons to change, even then, the greens wouldn't want to change it anyway.
Unfortuantly, it will take a massive disaster to even start the discussion, and then, years to get it sorted out, or production ramped up.
But its not only bio-ethanol that is the problem, masses of food is wasted, and ends up in landfill. There is a requirement, for a sensible discussion, on the whole subject, very unachievable at the moment.
I think it's not a matter of if than when. Dilemma being where that lost energy would come from? Especially with the gas issues which were the catalyst to all of this in the first place.
 

Northern territory

Member
Livestock Farmer
will the green zealots allow that to change, without causing a massive protest ?
Yes it is stupid to process food into fuel, when its in short supply.
But that would take a reversal of promises, made by many countries, to reduce the use of fossil fuels. More importantly, what would it take, to convince politicians they were wrong to go down that path ? That is assuming they understand the reason for reversal, which is doubtful.
Even then, there would be years of debates, as to the reasons to change, even then, the greens wouldn't want to change it anyway.
Unfortuantly, it will take a massive disaster to even start the discussion, and then, years to get it sorted out, or production ramped up.
But its not only bio-ethanol that is the problem, masses of food is wasted, and ends up in landfill. There is a requirement, for a sensible discussion, on the whole subject, very unachievable at the moment.
I thought about this last night. The only real cure for food waste is for it to be more expensive so it becomes more prized rather than a throw away commodity.
 

An Gof

Member
Location
Cornwall
3.9m tonnes of wheat, 4.1m tonnes of maize, 12.1m tonnes of sugar beet, 0.4m tonnes of barley and 0.4m tonnes of rye goes into bio-ethanol in Europe alone. On to of that 15.3m tonnes of rape and 3.5m tonnes of soya into bio-diesel. Those appear to be 2012 figures and they will have only gone up since then. It seems there is quite a bit of food going to fuel to act as a buffer if really needed.

But remember all the Co product that goes to feed livestock. It isn’t as simple as saying that it is all lost food. Farmers should know better; it’s the sort of cheap shot you see on the news and
In the press. 😡
 

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