Is British farming facing an existential crisis?

unlacedgecko · May 10, 2023

DrWazzock said:
I expect this job here will see me out but for the next generation I hope they do something better. Not sure I’d wish it on them. And if they are handy and willing they will always find something useful to do that’s for sure.
Meantimes we will crack on and have a laugh where we can.

You could keep 1,000 ewes on a ring fenced 200 ac with sheds. Wean 1.75 and sell 1.5.

1500 sale lambs sold at weaning for average £70 is £105,000.

Inputs would be fencing, dog (and associated costs), labour, vet med, dead stock disposal. Maybe a quad, or a buggy if you're feeling posh.

Treg · May 10, 2023

Henarar said:
Is it that bad ?
beef price is good, lamb not to bad.
fert coming down in price is a worry though.

Well 25 years ago 1 cow would buy a acre of land , now 15 cows would buy a acre here if your lucky, same with machinery.

The value of food has dropped in the last 25 years, whereas the value of everything else has gone up, people complain about the price of food but really their spending their cash on things they didn't have 25 years ago.

jendan · May 10, 2023

unlacedgecko said:
You could keep 1,000 ewes on a ring fenced 200 ac with sheds. Wean 1.75 and sell 1.5.

1500 sale lambs sold at weaning for average £70 is £105,000.

Inputs would be fencing, dog (and associated costs), labour, vet med, dead stock disposal. Maybe a quad, or a buggy if you're feeling posh.

Whats your feed costs,either bought in or home grown ? And what type of land ? It would have to be good or very good. And the sheds,there would have to be a fair few. My brother ran 450 on 200 acres with sheds for a good few years before he retired and made a good job of it. Nearly all lambs went in the fat,but at some times of the year,the pastures looked more sheep dottles than grass,and that was just 450 ewes plus their lambs. Running them tight means you cant afford any slip ups,and you would have to vaccinate for everything.

FonterraFarmer · May 10, 2023

Clive said:
^^^ this

too many (nfu) brainwashed farmers (see twitter) convinced their duty to feed people offers demigod status and immortality

Do what ever makes YOU money to feed YOUR family - growing trees / park keeping etc is probably a lot easier, less risky and stressful as well !

let them eat cake !

Nothing will change until the unproductive go hungry especially those in governments, many over here would quite honestly like to see this current government starve especially our previous PM considering the damage her and her cronies have done over the last 5 years.
Its a sign of a weak and incompetent politician to bail out and walk away when the going gets tough.

FonterraFarmer · May 10, 2023

Treg said:
Well 25 years ago 1 cow would buy a acre of land , now 15 cows would buy a acre here if your lucky, same with machinery.

The value of food has dropped in the last 25 years, whereas the value of everything else has gone up, people complain about the price of food but really their spending their cash on things they didn't have 25 years ago.

s**t cars , mobile phones , poncy alcoholics drinks and coke!!!

Jimdog1 · May 10, 2023

unlacedgecko said:
You could keep 1,000 ewes on a ring fenced 200 ac with sheds. Wean 1.75 and sell 1.5.

1500 sale lambs sold at weaning for average £70 is £105,000.

Inputs would be fencing, dog (and associated costs), labour, vet med, dead stock disposal. Maybe a quad, or a buggy if you're feeling posh.

For 1 year maybe.....

som farmer · May 10, 2023

Clive said:
i think we will eventually see max production incentivised on the best land but environment / natural capital incentivised on anything less than best

i’m not al all convinced that much of the land we farm today will grow food in the future BUT i do think we will continue to derive income from it …….. maybe more so than from food production even ?

we have a relation 'advising' ministers, intensive farming, in the UK, is seen as better than intensive farming with no control.
the past year has been a waste of time, all effort from politicians has been focused on the next election.

Humble Village Farmer · May 10, 2023

neilo said:
I left the family partnership and started farming in my own right in 2012.
I joined the NFU and continue to be a member.
I also support the lobbying activities of the NSA and the TFA, oh and a tenner to the newest talking shop.

None of that is particularly relevant to the decline in agriculture we have seen over the last three decades though.

Ok well I can't argue with that.

Humble Village Farmer · May 10, 2023

unlacedgecko said:
You could keep 1,000 ewes on a ring fenced 200 ac with sheds. Wean 1.75 and sell 1.5.

1500 sale lambs sold at weaning for average £70 is £105,000.

Inputs would be fencing, dog (and associated costs), labour, vet med, dead stock disposal. Maybe a quad, or a buggy if you're feeling posh.

There must be 1000s of landowners considering this as an option. How much if any rent would the grazier be able to pay, bearing in mind that fencing is grantable?

DrWazzock · May 10, 2023

Whether its food, cars, steel, concrete, energy, clothing or any other goods it’s a fact that if you want them produced in an environmentally friendly way then at least in the short term you are going to have to pay a lot more for them.
To ask us to produce to a high standard then buy cheap imports produced to lesser standards is what bugs me.
Anyway, I’ll get on. Lovely morning. Busy welding up my roller. Very satisfying. As I say there’s more to life than producing high quality food that’s then shunned on price.
Let them eat woodchip.

Humble Village Farmer · May 10, 2023

DrWazzock said:
Whether its food, cars, steel, concrete, energy, clothing or any other goods it’s a fact that if you want them produced in an environmentally friendly way then at least in the short term you are going to have to pay a lot more for them.
To ask us to produce to a high standard then buy cheap imports produced to lesser standards is what bugs me.
Anyway, I’ll get on. Lovely morning. Busy welding up my roller. Very satisfying. As I say there’s more to life than producing high quality food that’s then shunned on price.
Let them eat woodchip.

What the market is really telling us is that food isn't wanted. So if you want to do it for a hobby fine, but not as a business, just at the moment.

Radnor Lad · May 10, 2023

Are things that bad. I’ve cut my feed costs by starting to plant young leys on rented ground, ground gets a rest all winter and is ewes are having no extra feed on it. I’ve altered my fat lamb sales system by creeping everything and hope to sell by end July and hope to pick some of the good early trade. I utilise all my muck and ensure ph levels are good. Making finer details to refine what I produce.
I’ve had the chance to diversify and took it up. Yes I have major debt but I’m servicing it. I think farming will be fine, yes the bps will end but that will sort the wheat from the chaff and hopefully have more efficient farms not reliant on it to survive. If your unhappy with farming as it is let someone else have a go at it, there will always be plenty of takers

Steevo · May 10, 2023

Clive said:
exactly - UK farmers are playing in a casino where the deck is openly stacked against them

...and with a government that seems more than happy to take farmers to court as in the case of @ajcc

Based on that and that alone, I would never consider entering into any agreement with the government for their eco-agenda.

som farmer · May 10, 2023

DrWazzock said:
Whether its food, cars, steel, concrete, energy, clothing or any other goods it’s a fact that if you want them produced in an environmentally friendly way then at least in the short term you are going to have to pay a lot more for them.
To ask us to produce to a high standard then buy cheap imports produced to lesser standards is what bugs me.
Anyway, I’ll get on. Lovely morning. Busy welding up my roller. Very satisfying. As I say there’s more to life than producing high quality food that’s then shunned on price.
Let them eat woodchip.

its like a house of cards, it will fall down, buts its only wobbling at the moment.

as in all other times of food supply shortages, we will be heroes, for a while, a short while.

the cards will collapse, but only when they do, will things change. All political parties, bar the greens, rely on a cheap food policy, that will not/cannot change. How they get around it, will be interesting to say the least, there's only 1 recognised action, its called subsidies. And the dickheads have removed all subs, that are actually tied to food production.

unlacedgecko · May 10, 2023

jendan said:
Whats your feed costs,either bought in or home grown ? And what type of land ? It would have to be good or very good. And the sheds,there would have to be a fair few. My brother ran 450 on 200 acres with sheds for a good few years before he retired and made a good job of it. Nearly all lambs went in the fat,but at some times of the year,the pastures looked more sheep dottles than grass,and that was just 450 ewes plus their lambs. Running them tight means you cant afford any slip ups,and you would have to vaccinate for everything.

450 ewes on 200 ac? What on earth?

unlacedgecko · May 10, 2023

jendan said:
Whats your feed costs,either bought in or home grown ? And what type of land ? It would have to be good or very good. And the sheds,there would have to be a fair few. My brother ran 450 on 200 acres with sheds for a good few years before he retired and made a good job of it. Nearly all lambs went in the fat,but at some times of the year,the pastures looked more sheep dottles than grass,and that was just 450 ewes plus their lambs. Running them tight means you cant afford any slip ups,and you would have to vaccinate for everything.

Tack the out for 20weeks of winter. £1/hd per week, that's £20k. Spend the winter working off farm. Or just relax.

Wouldn't need the sheds at all then.

DrWazzock · May 10, 2023

5 ewes to the acre is the stuff of DEFRA handbooks and consultants IMO.
This year we are blessed with plenty of grass due to spring rain. Sometimes it’s been like a parched bowling green. 3 ewes to the acre is more like it here.
Remind me of the cost of establishing grass ley.
How much to buy 1000 ewes?
Wouldn’t see a profit till year 3 I reckon.
My brother has achieved a good 2 lambs per ewe this spring. Lots of triplets. They are busy sucking up milk powder as we speak. Dagging next and whiff of fly spray. Never a dull moment.

Andy Nash · May 10, 2023

neilo said:
Wow. 16 posts before the NFU was mentioned, and 24 before RT came into it. You guys are slipping.

It’s ok Neil, I’m on the case now.

neilo said:
The decline of UK Ag is a systemic, government derived problem going back decades. Unfortunately, I don’t see it changing without a major shock to the system (as WW2 was), and will likely get worse while government, and those that vote it in, believe that everything should be led by the market.

Agreed, I would say it goes back at least 3 centuries, certainly since the Industrial Revolution when industrial output was far more important than agricultural output and continuing today when food comes from supermarkets.
It has never worked long term and as you say, it will take a shock to the system to change that policy.

Until it does happen, I would like to keep our green fields and hills with stock grazing, rather than Sitka plantations and thorny scrub.
I would like to be a member of a farming union that values these things and is prepared to fight to try to keep things going until this plant based craze burns itself out.

som farmer · May 10, 2023

Radnor Lad said:
Are things that bad. I’ve cut my feed costs by starting to plant young leys on rented ground, ground gets a rest all winter and is ewes are having no extra feed on it. I’ve altered my fat lamb sales system by creeping everything and hope to sell by end July and hope to pick some of the good early trade. I utilise all my muck and ensure ph levels are good. Making finer details to refine what I produce.
I’ve had the chance to diversify and took it up. Yes I have major debt but I’m servicing it. I think farming will be fine, yes the bps will end but that will sort the wheat from the chaff and hopefully have more efficient farms not reliant on it to survive. If your unhappy with farming as it is let someone else have a go at it, there will always be plenty of takers

we need to get out of the idea that we have to produce more and more food, that we are important by doing so, we are not, - yet.

the price of food will, by whatever means, will be kept down, guvs cannot afford it to rise.

so to maintain/increase profit, has to come from us, it can only come by cutting our COP. Easier said than done.

the consultants/guvs advice is basically spread the costs, by producing more, a load of ballocks, exactly the opposite will produce a better price.

the guv keeps on about efficiency, as with most of their advice, it is absolutely correct, for the wrong reasons. We need to look hard at how we do things, and why. And how similar systems work elsewhere. As @Radnor Lad points out, small changes can mean big savings. So many things we do, are because that is how we have always done them, time for a change ?

with any breeding herd/flock, the bottom 10% probably cost money to keep, remove them, profit will rise. They are an input, not an output..

we are in changing times, we have to change with them, or get out.

toquark · May 10, 2023

The bottom line is this: if it doesn’t pay, I won’t do it. I have the land to sit on if necessary, or rent it out, or plant it with trees, or rewild it, or do nothing and let the fences and dykes collapse, or park caravans on it and annoy the villagers. Whatever. I certainly won’t be putting anything into it for the benefit of the retailers. It will be for mine and my families benefit only.

I see the farm as a capital asset which has the ability to to self finance its improvement. It helps that I enjoy it, but I’m under no obligation to keep producing food from it and neither are any of you. Unless you’re a tenant, then your options are quite limited tbf.

Is British farming facing an existential crisis?

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Up to 25%

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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