The war in Ukraine...

B

BrianV

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Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
"Prepare for all out war with Russia" NATO head says, really is he serious as that's probably not going to end well for all involved, seems WW3 is something they are now happy to consider, what is wrong with these people.

NATO Admiral Rob Bauer: Russia-Ukraine war will shape the fate of the world​

Admiral Bauer stated, “This war is being fought because President Putin fears something much more powerful than any physical weapon on Earth – democracy.”

23/03/2024

nato-admiral-rob-bauer-russia-ukraine-war-will-shape-the-fate-of-the-world
 
F

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
flinty123 said:
No one is helping the poor Ukrainians, everyone makes the right noises but follows it up with nothing. It's a desperately sorry state of affairs.
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I don’t think that’s entirely fair. Ukraine have had a lot of material lots and lots, not all publicly acknowledged, but the scale of Putins war, it’s another level, it demands so much more. 🫤
 
F

flinty123

Member
Mixed Farmer
farmerm said:
I don’t think that’s entirely fair. Ukraine have had a lot of material lots and lots, not all publicly acknowledged, but the scale of Putins war, it’s another level, it demands so much more. 🫤
Click to expand...
Putins war will end in the meeting room with Biden or Trump, not on the front line.
 
Danllan

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
BrianV said:
"Ukrainan Storm Shadow" or British ones manned by British SF, not a good time to be advertising the UK involvement as it gives Putin all the excuses he needs to up the anti.
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You keep writing this: artillery, atws, tanks, missiles, AEW int' etc. etc. you've said it every time - echoing Putin's 'dire warnings' every time, and absolutely SFA happens. Just like the warnings of terrible things if Sweden and Finland dared to join NATO... nothing.

Putin knows he is impotent, that's why he does nothing and keeps with the hot air, it's about time others realised it too, or just admit they already have.
 
B

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
Danllan said:
You keep writing this: artillery, atws, tanks, missiles, AEW int' etc. etc. you've said it every time - echoing Putin's 'dire warnings' every time, and absolutely SFA happens. Just like the warnings of terrible things if Sweden and Finland dared to join NATO... nothing.

Putin knows he is impotent, that's why he does nothing and keeps with the hot air, it's about time others realised it too, or just admit they already have.
Click to expand...
I've always said Putin will escalate to the next stage if it looks like he is in danger losing & in fear of being driven out of the parts of Ukraine he now occupies or else the bridge to Crimea is completely destroyed, I assume the Ukrainians are aware of this as they seem to have the means to bomb well into Russia but not target the bridge seriously.
Don't kid yourself that the Russians are't capable of further terrible destruction.
 
will l

will l

Member
Arable Farmer
BrianV said:
"Ukrainan Storm Shadow" or British ones manned by British SF, not a good time to be advertising the UK involvement as it gives Putin all the excuses he needs to up the anti.
Click to expand...
SCALP "Système de Croisière Autonome à Longue Portée"
 
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F

flinty123

Member
Mixed Farmer
essex man said:
Where do you think the front line would be now without western support?
You would agree that it has had some effect?
Click to expand...

All Western military support has done is created a larger war, with the loss of more innocent Ukrainian lives. When Mr Trump wins or Mr Biden retires, the Russian front line will expand towards Ukraine.

True Western support would have been placing troops on the ground, implementing no fly zones and real economic sanctions. The reality is Russia is bombing at will with their trading at record levels. America and Europe still trade with Russia!

Anyone who states the reality on this thread, is ambushed by the lefty Rambos using articles written by pro Ukrainian deaths journalists.They take no notice of what the media report and what the facts are. Putin is showing just how selfish foreign politicians are, they are allowing the death of Ukrainians to further their personal careers.

My stance is the politicians do their job and find a diplomatic soultion. More innocent Ukrainians shouldn't die, only for Mr Trump to pull out next year, the Ukrainians will be treated no differently to the Afgans, they are being used to weaken Russian before being dumped.
 
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Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
Analysis in the Sunday Times

MARK GALEOTTI | ANALYSIS

Why would Isis attack Moscow? What concert shooting means for Putin​

The Kremlin dismissed warnings earlier this month about the terror group. Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian security affairs, examines the fallout

Mark Galeotti
Saturday March 23 2024, 6.00pm, The Sunday Times
Global politics
Russia
Terrorism
Vladimir Putin
Ukraine

The attack by Isis-K on the Russian music venue killed more than 130 people
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The shocking terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall music venue outside Moscow, which has already claimed more than 130 lives, looks like the Kremlin’s worst nightmare: a jihadist attack originating from central Asia at the very time that it is focused on Ukraine.
With Vladimir Putin having staked his legitimacy on his role as the tough defender of the Motherland, he needs to respond, but there are no easy options for him.


What happened in Moscow?​

As almost 7,000 people gathered on Friday night at Crocus City Hall, a massive venue in Krasnogorsk, a commuter-belt town northwest of Moscow, for a concert by the rock band Picnic, a group of men in camouflage burst into the foyer, indiscriminately firing with assault rifles.
They fanned out across the hall, shooting at fleeing civilians, before using explosives or flammable materials to set the building on fire and escaping into a waiting car. Within 20 minutes they had fled, as security forces and emergency services rushed to the scene.

The music venue was destroyed by fire after the gunmen attacked the crowd
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF EMERGENCIES/GETTY
At least 133 people have died and many of the wounded remain in critical condition. The attack seems to have been carefully planned, with guns and explosives secretly hidden within the venue so that the killers could pass through the metal detectors at the entrances.

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Eleven people have been arrested so far: four alleged gunmen and seven others believed to be their associates. The four people arrested are reportedly not Russian citizens. Some of the eleven, if not all, are Tajiks. The accomplices may have worked in cleaning or maintenance at Crocus City, allowing them to stash the weapons in advance.


Who are Isis-K and why would they attack Russia?​

The Russian security forces appear to be accepting the claim of responsibility from Islamic State Khorasan (Isis-K), a regional affiliate of the Islamic State (Isis) wider movement. Jihadist terrorist movements have long posed a serious threat to Russia, and Isis-K has taken over from Chechen rebels as the perpetrators of the most serious attacks there, including the bombing of the St Petersburg metro in 2017, which left 15 dead.
Largely based in Afghanistan and central Asia, Isis-K has become increasingly focused on Russia, which it sees as equivalent to the US in its “hatred” for Islam. It cites Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria in support of the Assad regime against, among others, Isis fighters, as well as its support for central Asian governments opposed to Isis.
Although these incidents rarely get much coverage in the West, Isis-K has been behind a series of smaller-scale plots, including an attempt earlier this month to attack a synagogue in the Kaluga region southwest of Moscow. This was foiled by the Federal Security Service (FSB).


Why is central Asia a problem?​

More than 10 per cent of the Russian population is Muslim, and jihadist movements have come to dominate local insurgencies, especially in the North Caucasus, where unstable republics including Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan are squeezed between the Azov and Caspian seas.

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Al-Qaeda was first to assert its presence, followed by Islamic State. However, the Russians have considerable experience in dealing with the threat from the North Caucasus, from networks of local informants to seasoned analysts. They have much less capacity for addressing threats from central Asia.
Millions work in Russia as permanent residents or temporary labour and while most shun extremism, some have been radicalised, for example the ethnic Uzbek born in Kyrgyzstan who carried out the 2017 St Petersburg bombing.
Many live in closed camps and communities where most people may come from the same village or neighbourhood back home, making it hard for the FSB to place or recruit informants. As a result, the Russians have often had to rely on intelligence from their central Asian counterparts, which is frequently inaccurate or politicised.
A former FSB officer once told me that some dossiers supplied by the MXX, Uzbekistan’s security police, were so garbled that a 53-year-old visiting university professor was nearly arrested in the belief that he was a 20-year-old Isis militant returning from fighting in Afghanistan.

Crocus City Hall on fire after the attack on the music venue on Friday night
SERGEI VEDYASHKIN/MOSCOW NEWS AGENCY/AP


What does the Moscow terror attack mean for Putin?​

This is bad news for Putin. Russia is no stranger to terrorism, which has claimed more than 1,300 victims in Putin’s 24 years in power.

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The president has sought to legitimise himself in the past by offering Russians an improving standard of living in return for political quiescence and by demonstrating that he was their tough defender.
With the country sliding into stagnation under the pressure of its bloody war in Ukraine, he has had to stake everything on the latter.
Yet while Ukrainian drones now strike at Russian oil refineries, he is also having to deal with the country’s worst terrorist attack in years.
He is likely to feel an impulse to make a dramatic gesture in response — but against whom? There were early comments from some Moscow sources hinting at a direct Ukrainian connection.
Dmitry Medvedev, a former president who has become one of the most toxic and outspoken of Russian commentators, warned that “if it is established that these are terrorists affiliated with the Kyiv regime” then they must be “ruthlessly exterminated”. Conversely, a spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence called the attack a “deliberate provocation by Putin’s special services”.

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Even though the FSB is claiming that terrorists were planning to try to flee the country over the Ukrainian border, the current emphasis in official Russian accounts is very much on the Isis-K dimension.

What could Putin do next?​

The likely first response will be a crackdown on suspected central Asian militants and their sympathisers. If past experience is anything to go by, this will be heavy-handed and indiscriminate.
However, this option is fraught with peril. Russia is facing a labour crisis because of the needs of the war economy. Unemployment is at a record low and wages are being forced up by competition for workers. The country needs those central Asians who do many of the jobs Russians do not want for salaries Russians will not accept, and thuggish repression might well persuade many to leave.
It may also anger central Asian governments that are feeling less intimidated by Moscow these days, and whose tolerance is vital for the sanctions-busting “grey market” import of vital goods, from spare parts to microchips.

Putin had been irritated by previous warnings of an attack from the US
MIKHAIL METZEL, SPUTNIK/AP
The attack also forces Putin to take a hard look at his security forces. Time and again, they have failed him and the Russian people, yet Putin has been unwilling to hold them to account. They are crucial for his power base, and figures such as Alexander Bortnikov, the ailing and ageing director of the FSB, are loyal to him in a way their successors may not be.

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No security apparatus can prevent all terrorism, but the FSB and other security agencies have undoubtedly been distracted by their focus on Ukraine and may have failed to take full advantage of actionable intelligence.

Did the US warn of a terror attack?​

There is much confusion and speculation about quite what the US knew and told the Kremlin.
Much has been made on both sides of a terrorism warning issued to US citizens by their embassy in Moscow, but this happened on March 7 — the day when the Kaluga attack was prevented — and only told people to avoid large gatherings for the next 48 hours. At the time, an obviously irritated Putin called this a “provocation”, meant “to intimidate and destabilise our society” on the eve of the elections.
However, American sources have claimed that “since November there has been ‘fairly specific’ intelligence that Isis-K wanted to carry out attacks in Russia”, which had been passed on to Moscow.
The Kremlin has said that the warnings were quite generic, but there is a defensive note to some of the FSB statements that may suggest an internal inquest is already under way.

Flowers and candles have been left next to the venue, in memory of the victims of the attack
MAXIM SHIPENKOV/EPA


The ultimate threat​

The threat from the North Caucasus remains at a simmering level, with periodic insurgent attacks.
Back in 2022, a Russian security official admitted there was a credible fear that Isis-K may start to work with the remnants of the Isis affiliate there. With 97 per cent of Russia’s operational ground troops committed to the Ukraine war, what happens if it erupts into open rebellion again? Putin may face the tough decision of scaling back his invasion or risk losing the North Caucasus.
As usual when faced with especially intractable dilemmas, Putin at first dropped from view.
Russian TV channels were reportedly told three times to prepare for him to address the nation, only for him to change his mind until mid-afternoon when he finally made a brief appearance.
He again raised the unsubstantiated claim that the terrorists planned to escape the country through the Ukraine border, but there was none of the macho bluster and gangster language of past addresses. Instead, as one Russian watching lamented on social media, “we just got an old man who didn’t know what to say”.
Professor Mark Galeotti is the author of more than 20 books on Russia, most recently Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine, published by Bloomsbury
Listen live to Times Radio for the latest updates


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Global politics
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Ukraine
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essex man

essex man

Member
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flinty123 said:
All Western military support has done is created a larger war, with the loss of more innocent Ukrainian lives. When Mr Trump wins or Mr Biden retires, the Russian front line will expand towards Ukraine.

True Western support would have been placing troops on the ground, implementing no fly zones and real economic sanctions. The reality is Russia is bombing at will with their trading at record levels. America and Europe still trade with Russia!

Anyone who states the reality on this thread, is ambushed by the lefty Rambos using articles written by pro Ukrainian deaths journalists.They take no notice of what the media report and what the facts are. Putin is showing just how selfish foreign politicians are, they are allowing the death of Ukrainians to further their personal careers.

My stance is the politicians do their job and find a diplomatic soultion. More innocent Ukrainians shouldn't die, only for Mr Trump to pull out next year, the Ukrainians will be treated no differently to the Afgans, they are being used to weaken Russian before being dumped.
Click to expand...
So , it didn't help at all to push the russians back, they did that all by themselves?
I agree re proper help, i just don't think that all western help has been harmful.
It got ukraine into a much better position to negotiate from after 12 months, "our" giving up on them has squandered that position.
The high point of ukraine territory regained has passed and will stay in the past if western nations continue to wind down support.
 
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Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
Washington is a Hot Mess, the Crocus attack shows more about how Russia controls certain US voices

͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏   ͏  

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Ukraine-Russia War Talk: New Episode
​

Weekend Update #73: Strategic Airpower Becomes the Focus of the War​

Washington is a Hot Mess, the Crocus attack shows more about how Russia controls certain US voices​

Phillips P. OBrien
Mar 24

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​
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Hello everyone,
With another very large Russian missile/UAV attack last night (the fourth consecutive night) its clear that we are in the midst of the biggest Russian strategic air campaign for the whole winter of 2023-2024. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, are continuing with their own campaign against Russian refineries and Crimea. Away from the main combatants, Washington continues to be a hot mess on the war, in true bipartisan spirit. Finally, the attack two night ago against Russian concertgoers in Moscow reveals just how certain Americans have become fully enmeshed in spreading Russian propaganda.
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The Ukrainian Dnipro Dam Power Plant after a Russian attack.
Strategic Airpower Becomes the Focus of the War
With the battlefield still basically changing places in the smallest ways—with incremental, infantry-led changes here and there, the real focus of the week was the longer-range air attacks by both sides. Strategic Airpower is well and truly back in this war—and arguably it is a form of strategic airpower that will determine much of how the war develops from now on.
Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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Here are what the Ukrainians are saying have been fired over Ukraine during three of the last 4 nights
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All in all, the Russians might have fired a months worth of missile production in 4 nights.
This is arguably the largest and possibly the most effectively planned Russian strategic air operation of the war (we cant say how effectively it was yet in achieving its goals). The first attack (on 21 March) involved 29 cruise missiles, one Kinzhal and one ballistic missile—all fired at Kyiv. The Ukrainians claimed to have shot down all—but actually it seems that at least part of this operation to try and draw as much Ukrainian anti-air forces to Kyiv. With many important people from around the world in town (the Kyiv Security Forum was ongoing, and there were other international visitors paying high diplomatic visits), the attack seems designed to make the Ukrainians concentrate on the capital.
The next three nights, including the massively heavy attack on 22 March and the very heavy one last night—with a large mix of missiles and UAVs, were aimed away from Kyiv—with at least part of the idea being to hit Ukrainian power generation. The Russians hit the large Dnipro dam hydroelectic facility on Thursday night—which helps power the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power facility.
​
Ukrainian electricity plant in Kharkiv oblast after a Russian attack earlier this week
Other power generation facilities attack were those in Kharkiv (see picture above) and last night in western Ukraine (Lviv). So having attacked Kyiv to draw Ukrainian anti-air to the capital, or at least pinned is there, the Russians have thrown large air stocks into hitting Ukrainian power generation everywhere else in the country (which is not protected as well as Kyiv).
As an operation, as I said before, it seems far better planned and executed that earlier Russian strategic air operations. These (the earlier) suffered from major flaws in lack of force, predictability, and lack of focus. The campaign against Ukrainian military production this winter seemed particularly spotty—with effort for a night or two, and then quiet.
These operations of the last few nights do seem better planned. The question for the Russians now, is can they keep the power out—particularly in places like Kharkiv. If they can continue heavy attacks in the coming week (and not have to take a large pause now) that will be a sign that this really is the largest strategic air operation of the war for the Russians.
The Ukrainians, meanwhile keep pushing on with their own strategic air campaign, which has two elements behind it. Last night there was another one of the regular Ukrainian attacks to try and isolate Crimea, with powerful explosions being recorded in Sevastopol. These seem to have been Ukrainian missiles (probably storm shadows/scalps) fired at a large communications facility. The explosion certainly gives the indication that something was hit.
The night before, there was also another Ukrainian attack on a Russian oil refinery, this time in Kuybyshev, around 600kms from the Ukrainian border.
​
The Kuybyshev Refinery burning after a Ukrainian attack.
This is an important sign for two reasons. First, this is potentially one of the most important campaigns Ukraine can fight, as Ive pointed out in other pieces. If you can damage oil production, you hit Russia with a triple whammy (less currency, less domestic fuel (which is used in countless productive and personal ways) and less fuel for the military. It was attacks on German fuel that really damaged the German economy in World War II.
The question is not whether its a good target—its whether the Ukrainians have the material to keep it up. So far they do—and that is heartening for their war effort.
So—continue watching this space. Both sides are turning more and more towards strategic airpower with the battlelines very hard to shift. If one side can gain a clear advantage in this area, it could make a big difference in the course of the war.
Washington is a Hot Mess
Its hard not to watch the shenanigans in Washington DC these days (from both parties) and not be terminally embarrassed. One of the reasons that the Ukrainian attack on the Kuybyshev oil refinery was important, was because it came after a US request that Ukraine not make such attacks. Supposedly the US request was made out of direct political fear. The Administration seemed to think that these attacks could be too successful and result in higher global fuel prices—which is the last thing they want in this election year.
As some support for the idea that this story was true, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan showed up in Kyiv this week to speak to the Ukrainian government. He made some pretty clear statements that aid to Ukraine would pass—saying he was “confident” that the bill would get through in the House in the end. At the same time, he reportedly passed on the Ukrainians the American request that the refinery attacks would stop. The Ukrainians, from what Im told, politely but firmly brushed him off. The attack the next day made that clear.
And to be honest, the US not providing aid to Ukraine while asking the Ukrainians to limit their war fighting to suit US domestic interests is about as cringe-worthy a position that the US can take (almost). Its demeaning, strategically nonsensible, and shows a total lack of understanding of war. Only a country that really has no security concerns could have made it.
It was good the Ukrainians have reacted as they have.
Of course anytime the Biden administration shows it weakness in policy towards Ukraine, the MAGA Republicans trump them byrevealing once again that their dream is to see Ukraine defeated. I will write a longer piece on this later—but in the choice between weak and evil, is is imperative that weak win.
MAGA outdid itself this week. Trump, in one of his speeches a week ago openly claimed that Ukraine might not survive the war—which seems part of a concerted effort to make sure the House does not approve aid. This week, when the Freedom Caucus (think MAGA storm troopers) thought that Speaker Johnson was working too closely with the Democrats, they retaliated. One of their members, Marjorie Taylor Greene, even started a motion to remove Johnson from the speakership. Greene has arguably been the most outspoken member of Congress against aid to Ukraine.
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Greene announcing her intention to file a motion to oust Johnson from the speakership
Johnson, as always, seems stuck. Earlier in the week there were signs that he was going to put off any Ukraine aid vote for at least another 3 weeks (which is getting closer and closer to just killing it off). However, the anger of Greene and others, the statement of Sullivan, etc, give some hope that a deal might be cut.
The extraordinary thing is that this fight is even happening. A clear majority of the House wants to approve aid to Ukraine, its just that Trump is dead set against it, and because of it, we dont know if the will of the majority will be respected.
Remember: evil is worse than weak.
The Crocus Attack and the US servants of Putin
I have nothing to say about the attack on the Russian concert in Moscow on Friday night. I have no real idea who did it—and neither do you. ISIS has already released a video claiming the operation, but of course these things can take time to understand. Putin, who clearly wants to say Ukraine did it, couldnt even fully make that claim in his public address yesterday. Instead, he tried to establish a connection to Ukraine, by saying that the gunmen were all fleeing in the direction of Ukraine when they were caught.
Ukraine has fired back saying that the Ukrainians have had nothing to do with the attack and it was more likely a Putin-inspired false-flag event.
I dont know the truth and you dont know the truth. However, you know who doesnt need the truth to start spreading the Putin narrative more than even the Russian dictator—his US acolytes. Its amazing that people such as David Sachs and Douglas MacGregor—immediately jumped further and louder to describe the attacks from the Putin-position. Take a look.
Sacks just basically it was Ukraine and the US should abandon the Ukrainians (no evidence for the former—and the latter has been his long-time goal)
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Macgregor buys completely the attackers were heading to Ukraine, and then says of course it was a CIA/MI6 operation (no evidence of that at all).
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In our post-truth world, its perhaps not surprising to see people, including formerly high ranking US military officers, serving Putin’s dictatorship so energetically. It shows, of course, why Ukraine must win. The opposite result will be the victory of lies.
Stay well everyone.
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