budgeting for next years average milk price.

[sidjon]

I guess I must be in the minority but for investments I look at the bank statement to see if I can afford it.

Guess that depends on what your investing in? New tractor would be purchased from cash, an other farm umm don't seem to have that sort of money just sitting around, it's all down to risk, I don't want anyone bailing me out if I have made a sh!t choice, but probably won't be in the position I am In now if I hadn't taken a lot of risk at times.

 

[Courier]

MOPFF doesn't allow for any return on capital employed or actually extracting the milk form the cow or rent or ...or..or...

If people are really considering MOPFF to be a benchmark for creating a profitable business then no wonder the industry is in serious trouble..

 

[snowhite]

I think you will see a big swing up. we are on the fourth cycle of peaks and troughs and they appear to be getting bigger swings. Once cows get killed they take a long time to relplace.

the strange thing is the yanks kill off cows like they are flys and jump back in very fast how ever they build up cow numbers so fast

 

[jimmer]

the devil is in the description
the P in MOPFF stands for purchased ,
i know a few people who purchase nearly all their feed , be it forage ,or concentrate , making your own forage isnt always cheaper

 

[buffalo_soldier]

MOPFF doesn't allow for any return on capital employed or actually extracting the milk form the cow or rent or ...or..or...

If people are really considering MOPFF to be a benchmark for creating a profitable business then no wonder the industry is in serious trouble..

Its a starting point, the rest of the costs are more predictable/linear.
Milk price, feeds and fert vary more and as I am unable to see into the future I prefer to use an average of the relationship between the 3. Otherwise I would be plucking a figure out of the air.

 

[early riser]

Are Kite Consulting still saying it will be 28p by Christmas, hope they mean this Christmas

The same people who said we should have a target of at least £3k debt per cow in order to be running a successful business

Yes we all need to borrow money to drive our businesses forward, but there is a lot of people who listened to this garbage and have over-leveraged big style and cannot afford to get off the treadmill

 

[jerseycowsman]

I have no idea what the price will be next year but it cant really fall much further as processors know that if it does there will be no dairy farmers left. I cant see it rising much in a hurry though unless some serious culling starts.

Dairy culls up 50% in July '15 compared to July '14 according to dairyco

 

[Tarw Coch]

The same people who said we should have a target of at least £3k debt per cow in order to be running a successful business

Yes we all need to borrow money to drive our businesses forward, but there is a lot of people who listened to this garbage and have over-leveraged big style and cannot afford to get off the treadmill

IIRC there was an article in the farming press saying the most progressive farms were running at 5 to 7k of debt per cow with some at 9k.
I could understand it if it were to buy an asset like land but if this level of debt was just driving expansion ie cows, buildings and machinery it's asking for trouble.

 

[Sid]

Dairy culls up 50% in July '15 compared to July '14 according to dairyco

Means nothing if the number of replacements is up 75%. Seems to be a huge influx of cheap replacements from the euro zone. We hear the moans from the industry about cheap milk imports but nothing about cheap replacements!

 

[cornishfarmer]

Means nothing if the number of replacements is up 75%. Seems to be a huge influx of cheap replacements from the euro zone. We hear the moans from the industry about cheap milk imports but nothing about cheap replacements!

Anyone that's buying these know how they are going it get rid of them the other end? It's harder and harder to get anyone take them, or is that a problem to think about in 3/4 years!!!

 

[Sid]

Anyone that's buying these know how they are going it get rid of them the other end? It's harder and harder to get anyone take them, or is that a problem to think about in 3/4 years!!!

perhaps they're hoping the exchange will have gone the other way and they can export them back again as live beef??

 

[Sid]

According to Andersons their "friesian farm" is going to average 27.2. Thats a good 5ppl above the biggest choice on the poll so far!

Friesian farm? Shouldn't that be holstein manor....of all problems ?

 

[DaveGrohl]

There's some seriously delusional thinking going on at the moment with regard to milk prices going forward. I have yet to see a single factor materialising that will indicate that we're at the bottom worldwide, never mind the six month timelag that we have in this country. Far too many people clinging on to the belief that a bit of light culling in the UK is suddenly going to rocket prices back up to 30+.

Also some of the guff coming out from the NFU re the talks with govt/supermarkets is really starting to irritate. Longer term contracts? How the Hell is that going to improve milk prices? How many milk buyers can get rid of producers within 12 months now? And this talk of there being no dairy farmers left is just daft. Of course there will be dairy farmers left, just fewer of them producing the same amount of milk.