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Livestock
Livestock & Forage
ebv debate
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<blockquote data-quote="neilo" data-source="post: 1871542" data-attributes="member: 348"><p>The ram you cite, would not have an accuracy of anything like 90% until there was more data on him than just sire & dam. He would start off at the midpoint between the two, if no performance data of his own was recorded, and then move towards his own performance as more data (& accuracy) was added. Similarly an unrecorded ram with no back pedigree recorded/input would start off with the average ebvs for his breed and the year of his birth (with very low accuracy) then move towards a more accurate estimate as data is added to the analysis.</p><p></p><p>When an animal gets closer to your 90% example, there would be a fair few related animals' performance linked into his analysis, each one making the estimate more likely to be accurate. Looking at our own breed's Stock Sire list, there are several rams that have 90% accuracy on their main ebvs, which have around 50 progeny recorded. There are shearling animals with 7 progeny recorded that are at 76% accuracy. For reference related lambs in well recorded flocks are generally in the low 70's until they get progeny recorded.</p><p></p><p>The ebvs provide an estimate of likely performance, which gets more accurate as more information is available, but it is still an estimate (the clues in the name). It is a valuable additional selection tool, to use alongside those of a stockman. I have never, and will never, advocate selecting an animal on paper estimates alone. That would be as daft as paying through the nose purely because someone said a lamb was by a ram that was worth 122,000 gns or whatever.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="neilo, post: 1871542, member: 348"] The ram you cite, would not have an accuracy of anything like 90% until there was more data on him than just sire & dam. He would start off at the midpoint between the two, if no performance data of his own was recorded, and then move towards his own performance as more data (& accuracy) was added. Similarly an unrecorded ram with no back pedigree recorded/input would start off with the average ebvs for his breed and the year of his birth (with very low accuracy) then move towards a more accurate estimate as data is added to the analysis. When an animal gets closer to your 90% example, there would be a fair few related animals' performance linked into his analysis, each one making the estimate more likely to be accurate. Looking at our own breed's Stock Sire list, there are several rams that have 90% accuracy on their main ebvs, which have around 50 progeny recorded. There are shearling animals with 7 progeny recorded that are at 76% accuracy. For reference related lambs in well recorded flocks are generally in the low 70's until they get progeny recorded. The ebvs provide an estimate of likely performance, which gets more accurate as more information is available, but it is still an estimate (the clues in the name). It is a valuable additional selection tool, to use alongside those of a stockman. I have never, and will never, advocate selecting an animal on paper estimates alone. That would be as daft as paying through the nose purely because someone said a lamb was by a ram that was worth 122,000 gns or whatever. [/QUOTE]
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