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Arable Farming
Arable Market Commentary
Gleadell Daily Grain Comment 02/05/17
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<blockquote data-quote="ADM Agriculture" data-source="post: 3775208" data-attributes="member: 6746"><p> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">US markets – all markets higher on reports of weather storms hitting US mid-west (Colorado / West Kansas) – also heavy rains increases flooding in parts of the corn belt.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">NASS reports US winter crop ratings unchanged on the week, still seen as 54% good/excellent (61% last year). Winter wheat 42% headed vs 40% last year. Spring wheat 31% planted vs 52% last year and 46% as 5-yr average.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">NASS reports US corn plantings 34% complete a/o 30th Apr, up 17 percentage points on the week, lower than the 43% planted at the same time last year, but in line with the 5yr average.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">CFTC reports showed a/o 25th April managed funds increased their short Chicago wheat position by another 20201 contracts – now seen 162327 short (22.1mln t) – also extending short in Kansas (hard winter wheat) but trimmed exposure in Minneapolis (spring wheat).</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">US Kansas wheat tour starts this week – talk that recent storms and severe weather may have damaged a third of the state’s wheat crop (state’s 2017 projected acreage is 23% of the total US winter wheat planted area).</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports farmers have sown 3.8mln t ha with spring grains so far, or about 52% of the expected planted area of 7.2mln ha, including 164000ha wheat (92% of planned area) 1.5mlmn ha maize (33% of planned area) and 2.3mln ha of sunflower.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Russian Ag Ministry reports government will start buying grain in August from the domestic market for state reserves.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">BAGE reports stronger-than-expected yields across Argentina on Soybeans could more than offset for the 1mln ha lost to flooding and drought – harvest has advanced to 32% of the planned area completed.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Egyptian government has procured 237,000t of wheat from local farmers so far from the local harvest, expects to purchase about 3.8mln t during the harvest that runs through to July.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Algeria purchases around 250,000t durum wheat – optional origin but likely to be sourced from Canada – shipment first and second half June.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Morocco has raised its soft wheat import custom tax to 135% from 30% until Dec 30th – government cites strong harvest and low international prices.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">AgriMer reported another sharp drop in the condition of the French soft wheat crop – estimates 78% in good/excellent condition a/o Apr 24th , down from 85% last week – Corn plantings put at 76% of the expected area completed, against just 24% last year.</li> </ul><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Last Trade Settle – please note we have now stated reporting the 2017 crop year – also US movement covered 2 days (as markets were open yesterday)</strong></p><p>London Nov ’17 Settle £138.25/t – up £0.65/t from previous close </p><p>Paris Dec ’17 Settle €172.75 – up €1.25/t from previous close</p><p>CBOT Nov ’17 Corn Settle $39450/bushel – up 7.75 cents/bushel from previous close</p><p>CBOT Nov ’17 Wheat Settle $4.9000/bushel – up 22.50 cents/bushel from previous close</p><p></p><p><strong>Currency Today:</strong></p><p>GBP EUR 1.1800</p><p>GBP USD 1.2885</p><p>EUR GBP 0.8470</p><p>EUR USD 1.0915</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ADM Agriculture, post: 3775208, member: 6746"] [LIST][*]US markets – all markets higher on reports of weather storms hitting US mid-west (Colorado / West Kansas) – also heavy rains increases flooding in parts of the corn belt.[/LIST] [LIST][*]NASS reports US winter crop ratings unchanged on the week, still seen as 54% good/excellent (61% last year). Winter wheat 42% headed vs 40% last year. Spring wheat 31% planted vs 52% last year and 46% as 5-yr average.[/LIST] [LIST][*]NASS reports US corn plantings 34% complete a/o 30th Apr, up 17 percentage points on the week, lower than the 43% planted at the same time last year, but in line with the 5yr average.[/LIST] [LIST][*]CFTC reports showed a/o 25th April managed funds increased their short Chicago wheat position by another 20201 contracts – now seen 162327 short (22.1mln t) – also extending short in Kansas (hard winter wheat) but trimmed exposure in Minneapolis (spring wheat).[/LIST] [LIST][*]US Kansas wheat tour starts this week – talk that recent storms and severe weather may have damaged a third of the state’s wheat crop (state’s 2017 projected acreage is 23% of the total US winter wheat planted area).[/LIST] [LIST][*]Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports farmers have sown 3.8mln t ha with spring grains so far, or about 52% of the expected planted area of 7.2mln ha, including 164000ha wheat (92% of planned area) 1.5mlmn ha maize (33% of planned area) and 2.3mln ha of sunflower.[/LIST] [LIST][*]Russian Ag Ministry reports government will start buying grain in August from the domestic market for state reserves.[/LIST] [LIST][*]BAGE reports stronger-than-expected yields across Argentina on Soybeans could more than offset for the 1mln ha lost to flooding and drought – harvest has advanced to 32% of the planned area completed.[/LIST] [LIST][*]Egyptian government has procured 237,000t of wheat from local farmers so far from the local harvest, expects to purchase about 3.8mln t during the harvest that runs through to July.[/LIST] [LIST][*]Algeria purchases around 250,000t durum wheat – optional origin but likely to be sourced from Canada – shipment first and second half June.[/LIST] [LIST][*]Morocco has raised its soft wheat import custom tax to 135% from 30% until Dec 30th – government cites strong harvest and low international prices.[/LIST] [LIST][*]AgriMer reported another sharp drop in the condition of the French soft wheat crop – estimates 78% in good/excellent condition a/o Apr 24th , down from 85% last week – Corn plantings put at 76% of the expected area completed, against just 24% last year.[/LIST] [B] Last Trade Settle – please note we have now stated reporting the 2017 crop year – also US movement covered 2 days (as markets were open yesterday)[/B] London Nov ’17 Settle £138.25/t – up £0.65/t from previous close Paris Dec ’17 Settle €172.75 – up €1.25/t from previous close CBOT Nov ’17 Corn Settle $39450/bushel – up 7.75 cents/bushel from previous close CBOT Nov ’17 Wheat Settle $4.9000/bushel – up 22.50 cents/bushel from previous close [B]Currency Today:[/B] GBP EUR 1.1800 GBP USD 1.2885 EUR GBP 0.8470 EUR USD 1.0915 [/QUOTE]
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Gleadell Daily Grain Comment 02/05/17
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