Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 11 October 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower, although market underpinned by Brazilian weather concerns. Corn virtually unchanged. Wheat marginally lower on no global weather concerns – all market very quiet/ dull ahead of tomorrow’s USDA reports.
• NASS reported US maize crop condition at 65% good/excellent, up 1 percentage point on the week (73% last year), with 82% of the crop mature vs 92% last year and 87% as 5-yr average, while 22% of the crop is harvested vs 33% last year and 37% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US soy crop conditions at 61% good/excellent, up 1 percentage point on the week (74% last year), with 89% of the crop dropping leaves vs 90% last year and 87% as 5-yr average, while 36% of the crop harvested vs 47% last year and 43% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US winter wheat crop was 48% planted vs 57% last year and 58% as 5-yr average, with 25% of the crop emerged vs 32% last year and 30% as 5-yr average.
• US Midwest weather has 1-2 inch rains moving across Iowa into Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Area dry rest of the week before another system moves in over the weekend with ½-2 inch totals for the Midwest.
• US 11-16 day forecast has much above normal temperatures for the Midwest, Southeast and East Coast areas, with below average in Northwest. Above normal precipitation is seen in the upper Midwest and Northwest regions with normal in the Southeast.
• Brazil’s CONAB estimated the 2017-18 Brazilian soy crop at 107.1mln t, down from last year’s 114.0mln t, while Corn seen at 92.9mln t, down from last year’s 97.8mln t.
• Egypt’s GASC purchased 170,000t of wheat, with all three cargoes coming from Russia, at prices which were similar to the previous tender (at around $214.00).
• China will issue import quotas for wheat, corn, rice and cotton today, with total volumes unchanged from 2017 (wheat 9.636mln t, corn 7.2mln t, rice 5.32mln t and cotton 894,000t).
• France 2017 revised production estimates – soft wheat @ 37.9mln t vs 37.8mln t last month and up 37.7% y/y, with maize @ 13mln t vs 12.75mln t last month and up 11.4% y/y.
• EU reduces tariffs for maize, sorghum and rye imports effective from yesterday. The EU had reintroduced the tariffs in August ending a near three-year period of duty free imports for the cereals.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £141.80/t – down £1.20/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €163.00 – down €1.00/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4925/bushel – down 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.3525/bushel – down 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1150
GBP USD 1.3185
EUR GBP 0.8960
EUR USD 1.1815