Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 13 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher in talk of new Chinese trade. Corn higher on talk that increase in open interest may have triggered some new buying. Wheat higher, after a lack of fresh news following USDA reports may have triggered some short-covering. All with little carry through to this morning.
• US Midwest weather has turned colder, although this will be short-lived with temperatures back to near normal by the middle of this week. US Northern Plains weather will also see much below normal temperatures for the start of the week, with below normal precipitation.
• US 11-16 day forecast has near normal temperatures and precipitation in the northeast and eastern Midwest. Western half of the US could see warmer than normal conditions with below normal precipitation. Northwest region will see above normal precipitation.
• CONAB reports Brazilian soy crop falling on lower yields for the coming crop, although crop area is projected at a record level. They also see the wheat crop hitting a 5-year low of 4.6mln t, as yields fall 25% y/y due to adverse weather hurting crops.
• Brazil postpones its wheat tariff import exception to 2018. Government to resume its discussions next year on granting tax exemptions for 750,000t from any supplier, despite an apparent agreement with Argentina not to create a tax-exempt quota for non-Mercosur imports.
• A major Chinese crusher has suspended operations at two plants due to delays in soybean imports, amid growing concerns about tightening supplies due to safety checks at the country’s ports.
• French framers have almost finished harvesting this year’s maize crop, reported at 97% a/o Nov 6th compared with 89% the week prior and 88% last year. Soft wheat sowings were 90% complete, compared with 79% the week prior and 88% a year ago.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £138.95/t – down £0.60/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €160.50 – up €0.50/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4350/bushel – up 2.00 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.3150/bushel – up 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1230
GBP USD 1.3080
EUR GBP 0.8895
EUR USD 1.1640