Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 18 October 2017

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets – soy lower on improving South American weather outlook. Corn lower as NAFTA talks seen providing negative overtones to the market. Wheat lower as a lack of bullish fundamentals allows the market to continue to drift.
  • NASS harvest data showed that this season’s corn and soy harvests are the fourth slowest since 2000 and could leave the unharvested crop vulnerable to any early frosts if they occur.
  • US Midwest weather will be dry until rains move into the west over the weekend, drier weather returns for most of next week. Temperatures will be well above average for the rest of the week, then cool to average to below for next week.
  • South American weather has light to moderate rains falling across northern Argentina to the end of the week with dry weather for next week. Moderate rains seen for southern Brazil this week/weekend, with northern Brazil mostly dry.
  • Kazakhstan has completed grain harvesting with a crop of 21.7mln t, up from 21.5mln y last year.
  • IKAR raised their Russian wheat production estimate to 83.2-83.7mln t, up from 82.5-83.5mln t last month.
  • Russian shipping costs continue to escalate as the record breaking harvest is starting to strain the country’s shipping infrastructure, as high winds have lowered water levels in Russia’s shallow ports, leading to shipping delays.
Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £139.45/t – down £0.25/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €162.50 – up €0.25/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.5025/bushel – down 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.3475/bushel – down 1.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1215
GBP USD 1.180
EUR GBP 0.810
EUR USD 1.1745
 

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