Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 22 January 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher as meal continues to firm. Hit-or-miss Argentine rains also supports. Corn higher on signs of short covering amidst Argentine dryness concerns. Wheat lower on lower than expected US sales.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 16th January managed funds extended their Chicago wheat short by 13949 contracts (now seen 142939 contracts short), trimmed their short KCBT wheat position by 5214 contracts, but extended their long Minneapolis position by 484 contracts.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 16th January managed funds extended their Chicago corn short by 4360 contracts (now seen 226876 contracts short), and extended their short Chicago soybean position by 10562 contracts (now seen 103397 contracts short).
• US ethanol exports to Brazil reportedly will spike during the coming months as high gasoline prices and low ethanol supplies drive up demand in the SAm country, which comes as a setback to country’s efforts to curb foreign shipments after implimenting a 20% tariff on US imports above a set quota.
• South American weather forecast has no major changes. Limited rainfall in Argentina for next 6-10 days, close to average rains seen for most of Brazil over next 7-10 days, with some above average rain in the south this week.
• BAGE estimated the Argentine soybean planting progress at 96.7% v s 94.3% last week and 99.1% last year. They report 590,000 ha in the northern province still needs to be planted with just a few days of the planting window remaining.
• BAGE estimated the Argentine corn planting progress at 91.3% vs 85.8% last week and 95.3% last year. The corn planting area was left unchanged at 5.4mln ha, although 450,000ha remains unplanted in the northern provinces.
• BAGE may again reduce its 2017-18 soy planting area estimate, due to sowing delays caused by dry weather in the NW part of Argentina. Last week the exchange trimmed its estimate to 18mln acres.
• EU soft wheat exports in the 2017-18 marketing season reached 11.3mln t a/o Jan 16th , down 19% y/y official data showed . All wheat exports were reported at 12.4mln t, also down 19% y/y, whilst all-wheat imports were reported at 2.7mln t, down 3% y/y.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £140.70/t – down £0.70/tonne from previous close
Paris May ’18 Settle €158.25 – down €0.50/t from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.5250/bushel – up 1.00 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.2275/bushel – down 3.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1345
GBP USD 1.3900
EUR GBP 0.8810
EUR USD 1.2250