Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 28 September 2017

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets – soy higher on Chinese sales and lower 2017-18 Argentine production. Corn higher on short covering ahead of stock report tomorrow. Wheat higher on short covering ahead of stock report tomorrow, talk of some analysts estimating Australian wheat production closer to 20mln t.
  • US$ touched a one-month high against most currencies yesterday, and interest rate sensitive two year US Treasury yields hit their highest since 2008, after Fed Chair Yellen said it would be ‘imprudent’ to keep rates on hold until US inflation hit 2%.
  • US EPA said it was seeking comments on a proposal to reduce 2018 biodiesel blending requirements into the domestic fuel supply, raising concerns of a fall in demand for US soy-oil.
  • BAGE is estimating the Argentine 2017-18 soybean production at 54mln t, compared with 57.5mln t this year, citing growers are expanding wheat and corn areas at the expense of soybeans.
  • Major Black Sea grain producers Russia and Ukraine are likely to keep their winter grain sowing area stable this autumn, paving the way for another large grain crop in 2018 – plantings in both countries running ahead y/y.
  • Ukraine’s grain exports have totalled 10mln t so far this season, the Ag Ministry reports, including 5.6mln t of wheat and around 1.2mln t of maize. Ag Ministry has said grain exports could reach 44-45mln t, exceeding the previous season’s record of 43.9mln t.
  • South Africa’s record 2017 maize harvest is expected to more than double last year’s, the Government’s CEC reported, and will provide its final production estimate for the 2017 crop today (expectations are for around 16.5mln t).
Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £141.45/t – up £0.45/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €167.00 – up €0.50/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.5400/bushel – up 1.75 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.6150/bushel – up 7.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1361
GBP USD 1.3366
EUR GBP 0.8895
EUR USD 1.1765
 

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