Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 2nd November 2015

[ADM Agriculture]

Daily Grain Comment

Monday 2nd November 2015

• CBOT wheat led US grains higher on Friday citing Australian rains and Thursdays export sales data on top of short covering as reasons for Chicago’s largest weekly gain in 4 months.
• US wheat managed to digest Thursdays positive export sales data pushing the December contract up a further 7 cents.
• European markets have failed to translate the recent rally in Chicago as London wheat was up £1.45 on the week against CBOT gains of £7.50 in sterling terms.
• EU export licences for soft wheat continue to disappoint at just 371kt last week, outside of the recent GASC purchases, recent weakness in the EUR has not spurred export demand.
• Negative manufacturing data out of China this morning shows that factory output fell for an eighth straight month, surprising many commentators.
• This is on top of weaker US consumer spending data released last Friday.
• GBP strength continues this morning after UK manufacturing data was released 4 points ahead of expectations.
• A drier US outlook is forecast for the start of the week before rains enter the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains from Wednesday onwards.
• Australia will see a moisture divide with rains focused in the east for the first half of the week and the west in the second.
• Warmer and drier conditions look set to prevail across Russia and Ukraine over the next 5-7 days.

Last Trade Settle:

London Nov ’15 Settle £114.95/mt – unchanged from previous close

London May ’16 Settle £122.55/mt – down £0.50 from previous close



Paris Dec ’15 Settle €180.75/mt – unchanged from previous close

Paris May ’16 Settle €189.25/mt – down €0.25 from previous close

Currency this morning:

GBP EUR 1.4063

EUR GBP 0.7107

EUR USD 1.1007

GBP USD 1.5482