Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 6 March 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher after rebounding from early losses – corn higher as biofuel debate continues to support prices – wheat higher with concerns over dryness in US plains/forecast supporting.
• CFTC reports shows a/o 28th Feb managed money funds extended their short Chicago wheat position by 28081 contracts. Now seen 55466 contract short (7.55mln t).
• Informa Economics raises its estimate for the 2016-17 Brazilian crop to 108mln t, from 106.5mln t previously. Also raises Brazilian all-corn estimate to 91mln t, from 89mln t last month.
• Trade ministry reports Brazil exported 3.51mln t soybeans in February vs 2.04mln t last year. Corn exports reported at 487,000t vs 5.37mln t last year.
• BAGE says recent rains helping soybean growing conditions holds estimates for soy and corn unchanged at 54.8mln t and 37mln t respectively.
• Russia’s Ag Ministry asking Government for permission to export 500,000t of grain from its 4mln t stockpile to make room for new harvest. SovEcon says regulations do not allow exports of Government reserves.
• South African corn (white) prices are down almost 20% on the week, as the country crop estimate committee (CEC) forecasts at 13.92mln t crop, up 78% from last season drought-stricken crop.
• In an initial outlook for 2017-18, the EU Commission forecast soft wheat production for the EU-28 to reach 143mln t, up from 134.3mln t this season.
• AgriMer holds French soft wheat crop ratings unchanged at 93% good/excellent, winter barley unchanged at 90%, durum down 3 points at 82%.
• French MATIF slightly weaker although ‘hugging’ 7-month highs. Rebound in euro and talk of Russian grain stock exports weighs.

Last Trade Settle:
London May ’17 Settle £148.05/t – down £0.20/t from previous close
Paris May ’17 Settle €176.25 – down €1.00/t from previous close
CBOT May ’17 Corn Settle $3.8075/bushel – up 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT May ’17 Wheat Settle $4.535/bushel – up 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1565
GBP USD 1.2265
EUR GBP 0.8645
EUR USD 1.0600