Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 8 May 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower on shipping delays after force majeure clause was declared. Corn higher despite news that China sold 2.1mln t from state reserves. Wheat higher as Canadian all-wheat stocks, although higher year on year (y/y), were lower than expected.
• CFTC report showed a/o 2nd May managed funds trimmed the Chicago wheat short by 37689 contract. Still seen 124638 contract short (17mln t). Squared out Kansas City short and maintained position in Minneapolis.
• CBOT is declaring a condition of force majeure owing to load-out impossibility (high water levels/flooding) at a majority of regular shipping stations on the Illinois river. CME says the force majeure is effective immediately and until further notice.
• US Agribusiness ADM said last week it would expand overall in Europe this year, even as the company restructures its global trading operation. Worsening market conditions continue to make it difficult to turn a profit internationally.
• Stats Canada reported Canadian all-wheat stocks a/o 31st Mar at 16.6mln t, up 15.5% y/y, due to higher stock levels being held on farms, up 17.5% to 12.2mln t, and a 10.2% rise in commercial stocks to 4.4mln t.
• Canadian farmers are slowly making their way into the fields after frequent snowfall and heavy rains have delayed spring field work. Warm, dry weather will be needed in coming weeks before seeding can get fully under way.
• BAGE reports good weather has allowed Argentine farmers to harvest 55% of this season’s soy crop, up from 38% last week. Kept harvest estimate unchanged at 56.5mln t.
• BAGE reports corn yields so far this season are at 8.85t/ha with 29% of the planted area harvested. Expects 2016-17 corn output of 37mln t.
• IKAR trims its export estimates for Russian 2016-17 total grain exports from 36.6mln t to 36mln t. Wheat lowered from 27.5mln t to 27.1mln t mainly due to recent Turkish issues.
• Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports framers have planted 5.5mln ha with spring grains for the 2017 harvest so far, or about 76% of the planned area of 7.2mln ha.
• France’s AgriMer reported a further decline in the condition of the French soft wheat crop, suggesting a lack of rain was still affecting crops. The crop is estimated at 74% good/excellent condition, down from 78% a week earlier.

Last Trade Settlement
London Nov ’17 Settle £140.50/t – up £1.00/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €173.00 – up €0.50/t from previous close
CBOT Nov ’17 Corn Settle $3.8850/bushel – up 4.00 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Nov ’17 Wheat Settle $4.7625/bushel – up 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1840
GBP USD 1.2970
EUR GBP 0.8445
EUR USD 1.0955