La Nina

[Heathland]

I've been try to find out about the effects of this weather anomaly,and just wonder if the weather gurus would like to pass comment.
I'm always looking for the up side to these events http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eather-forecaster-warning-of-possible-la-nina

 

[Goweresque]

On the basis the article says the last La Nina started in 2010 and ran until 2012 I'd say that means an increased likelihood of cold winters in the UK, as that period coincided with one of the coldest in recent memory, the 2010/11 winter.

 

[Pilatus]

I've been try to find out about the effects of this weather anomaly,and just wonder if are weather gurus would like to pass comment.
I'm always looking for the up side to these events http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eather-forecaster-warning-of-possible-la-nina

It will be interesting to see Simons comments on the above article.

 

[Paul_Procter]

La Nina will have very little effect on weather patterns in the UK. It may however effect the areas highlighted in the report . If that has a negative effect on world agricultural commodities is the question that is important for Uk farmers

 

[Heathland]

La Nina will have very little effect on weather patterns in the UK. It may however effect the areas highlighted in the report . If that has a negative effect on world agricultural commodities is the question that is important for Uk farmers

The weather I know here has very little affect on world commodity prices,it's the large producer's in North America/Latin America/Australia /Asia that affect me with there weather patterns.
We all hope there's a up lift in markets but that will only happen at someone's misfortune in the weather lottery.

 

[Honest john]

On the basis the article says the last La Nina started in 2010 and ran until 2012 I'd say that means an increased likelihood of cold winters in the UK, as that period coincided with one of the coldest in recent memory, the 2010/11 winter.

Well we made money in 10/12 period at the cost to others.

Look at the forward weather for Scotland this next week, -6 low to +20 high Glaslow.
It's been wild of late for sure.

 

[plasticfreddie]

On the basis the article says the last La Nina started in 2010 and ran until 2012 I'd say that means an increased likelihood of cold winters in the UK, as that period coincided with one of the coldest in recent memory, the 2010/11 winter.

I would disagree that 2010/11 was one of the coldest in living memory. December 2010 was certainly cold (mean temperatures for the month were 5 degrees below normal over most of the UK) and IIRC it was the coldest December for 100 years (see http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/dec2010). However, December is only one of the winter months, and the other winter months of January (slightly above average) and February (mild) ensured that the overall mean temperature for the winter was around average. From memory, the winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10 were colder than winter 2010/11.

The teleconnections with La Nina are very weak in the UK, and no firm conclusions can be drawn regarding effects on the weather. Sun spot activity was very low during 2008-2011, so that may have had some bearing on the weather, although this is difficult to quantify too. The most likely phenomena to influence the weather in the UK is the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern across the north Atlantic.

 

[Simon Keeling]

Hi guys,

There's actually very little direct correlation between ENSO weather and the weather in the UK (ENSO is the collective term used for the El Nino/La Nina cycles).

Having said that, it is a rather broad statement. By it's very nature, sea temperatures have an effect on the weather in all regions of the Earth and so one must not dismiss such things completely.

What tends to happen in the UK is that the ENSO becomes part of other sea surface temperature cycles. Of most interest to us is the temperature of the Atlantic. For example cool water west of the UK and warmer than average water in the mid and southern Atlantic have probably contributed 50% to the wet and windy winter we have seen thus far. Of the rest probably 20% is from El Nino, 15% from the Indian Ocean being warm and the other 15% made up of other 'phenomena' within the atmosphere.

I can't prove these figures, but in my experience they're probably about correct.

A switch to La Nina (which is perfectly normal) may again be offset by the cooler/warmer north/mid-south Atlantic and the warm Indian Ocean.

The map below shows the global impacts of an 'average' La Nina, that's without taking the other factors, as discussed above, into account.

I've taken this as a very weak signal in our forecasts which have gone out to clients for spring and summer.

Of course, I may be way off the mark, but you have to go with something!

Hope this helps?
Simon

 

[MrNoo]

Think your map is wrong Simon, it always pisses with rain over the uk in June-August!!!

 

[Simon Keeling]

sorry, best get back to the research

 

[Pilatus]

Forgetting the U.K ,does the ENSO effect ,actually "SERIOUSLY" effect the weather in certain areas of the world , which in turn will effect crop yields in those areas , which will in turn create lower or higher commodity prices worldwide, fact or fiction or pure coincidence. Know doubt commodity brokers are perhaps one step ahead of farmers on the afore mentioned .

 

[MrNoo]

I think Aus is normally dry and maybe also the old ussr too, so yes, £250/t by the end of the year ;-)