What should the replacement for SFI look like?

[DrWazzock]

I’ve said all I can. I’ll give it a rest. They’ll never listen.

 

[Hindsight]

The irony is that in a year like this when possibly every grain could be needed across Europe due to
a) atrocious weather and
b) war in Europe,

production is simply not being supported.
Those of us who are persevering with crop production against all the odds created by the weather and present low prices are made to look like fools from an immediate commercial perspective as DEFRA has made any option other than cropping so much more attractive from a profitability and risk persiective. Oilseeds and beans are a commercial non starter, cereals dubious. We as producers are left with high stakes gambling on a price recovery that might occur due to supply shortages after harvest and if those shortages don’t occur we will lose our shirts big time possibly running out of working capital to sow next years harvest, exacerbating the production downward spiral.
Simply reducing area of non crop public goods does nothing to change the present poor returns and high risk associated with cropping.
I can hardly believe that the government has removed the incentive to produce, at a time when the risks to security of supply have never been so high in my lifetime.
SFI is a seriously stupid policy as it lacks any direct encouragement to produce nor provides any buffering of producers from economic and climate shocks at a time when that production could be needed most. Sorry to sound alarmist but put simply, tre way the weather looks out of my window this morning, as it has looked for 8 months, this government is sleepwalking to a food supply disaster.

Hi DrW. There won’t be a food supply disaster in 2024 but at an individual farm business level a very difficult financ year unless commodity prices increase. Why do I say that. Well grass will grow regardless thus ruminant livestock supply will function not lacking forage and current prices will encourage ongoing production. Cereals may well be reduced to a 10 million tonne wheat crop which is insufficient for domestic needs but end users will if not already soon will cover with forward import purchases of Wheat and Maize. Barley in contrast is likely to be over supplied leading to exportable surplus. Moving to other crops, so potatoes, vegetable roots, vegetable brassicas, salad, onions. These are generally grown by specialist farm businesses. Mainly established in Spring, so plenty time yet and these businesses will press on with production. SFI is unlikely to have much impact other than a bit of land going. Resevoirs and groundwater is fully recharge, thus these food crops often grown on lighter soils should not suffer drought unlike 2018, for example. Welcome your comments on that projection?

 

[delilah]

Giving money to the PP farmer, under the guise of saving the planet, stimulates production by the arable farmer.
It's a win win.
What support measure for the arable farmer supports the PP farmer ?

 

[Huno]

I’ve said all I can. I’ll give it a rest. They’ll never listen.

I was locked in the cooler for months for having the same view as you... they will not listen correct Dr W

 

[Huno]

Giving money to the PP farmer, under the guise of saving the planet, stimulates production by the arable farmer.
It's a win win.
What support measure for the arable farmer supports the PP farmer ?

Straw and feed grains for concentrate?

 

[Huno]

I wouldnt want my livestock outdoors in this weather and the arable farmers gives me bedding and food to keep my moo's happy

 

[Huno]

Hi DrW. There won’t be a food supply disaster in 2024 but at an individual farm business level a very difficult financ year unless commodity prices increase. Why do I say that. Well grass will grow regardless thus ruminant livestock supply will function not lacking forage and current prices will encourage ongoing production. Cereals may well be reduced to a 10 million tonne wheat crop which is insufficient for domestic needs but end users will if not already soon will cover with forward import purchases of Wheat and Maize. Barley in contrast is likely to be over supplied leading to exportable surplus. Moving to other crops, so potatoes, vegetable roots, vegetable brassicas, salad, onions. These are generally grown by specialist farm businesses. Mainly established in Spring, so plenty time yet and these businesses will press on with production. SFI is unlikely to have much impact other than a bit of land going. Resevoirs and groundwater is fully recharge, thus these food crops often grown on lighter soils should not suffer drought unlike 2018, for example. Welcome your comments on that projection?

Spring barley hasnt even been planted on light ground yet and yields last year were poor so where are the massive barley exports coming from??

 

[delilah]

I wouldnt want my livestock outdoors in this weather and the arable farmers gives me bedding and food to keep my moo's happy

The one who gives it, got a phone number ?

 

[BrianV]

As I've said from the very beginning there should have been a basic payment for the first 100 hectares then SFI payments above that restricted to a £100,000 cap on any farm business, that way every type of farm would get the help they need to compete with countries not going down this stupid route & would enable those with spare land able to help wildlife.
As for the NFU they are a complete waste of time in the pockets of large estates & businesses outside of farming!

 

[Hindsight]

Spring barley hasnt even been planted on light ground yet and yields last year were poor so where are the massive barley exports coming from??

I didn’t say ‘massive’ exports. And if none to export then that will support price. My comment was, in my view, the impending starvation of the UK (my melodrama) forecast by DrW is unlikely to happen. Time will tell and you can come back to me in the Autumn to correct my view Huno. Cheers

 

[Just because]

Fu¢k it all off and just get true values for what we produce

 

[Huno]

I didn’t say ‘massive’ exports. And if none to export then that will support price. My comment was, in my view, the impending starvation of the UK (my melodrama) forecast by DrW is unlikely to happen. Time will tell and you can come back to me in the Autumn to correct my view Huno. Cheers

I think your view will be correct in the main... catchup again in the Autumn!

 

[Hindsight]

I think your view will be correct in the main... catchup again in the Autumn!

Hi, yes. I have a humble pie ready in the freezer to bake! Won’t be the first time I have had to eat one!! Cheers. Good to see you back.

 

[Huno]

Hi DrW. There won’t be a food supply disaster in 2024 but at an individual farm business level a very difficult financ year unless commodity prices increase. Why do I say that. Well grass will grow regardless thus ruminant livestock supply will function not lacking forage and current prices will encourage ongoing production. Cereals may well be reduced to a 10 million tonne wheat crop which is insufficient for domestic needs but end users will if not already soon will cover with forward import purchases of Wheat and Maize. Barley in contrast is likely to be over supplied leading to exportable surplus. Moving to other crops, so potatoes, vegetable roots, vegetable brassicas, salad, onions. These are generally grown by specialist farm businesses. Mainly established in Spring, so plenty time yet and these businesses will press on with production. SFI is unlikely to have much impact other than a bit of land going. Resevoirs and groundwater is fully recharge, thus these food crops often grown on lighter soils should not suffer drought unlike 2018, for example. Welcome your comments on that projection?

With 3% margins i would only plant high risk veg salad and root crops this spring if contracted to a buyer.. growing them on spec would be a massive gamble but lets spin that wheel again!

 

[Huno]

With 3% margins i would only plant high risk veg salad and root crops this spring if contracted to a buyer.. growing them on spec would be a massive gamble but lets spin that wheel again!

As SFI has shown "fortune favours the brave" and growing food in the UK is like throwing black or red on the roulette wheel in spring 2024

 

[Huno]

As SFI has shown "fortune favours the brave" and growing food in the UK is like throwing black or red on the roulette wheel in spring 2024

After the announcements this week a lot of farmers will be struggling to see a way out of this mess...

 

[Hindsight]

With 3% margins i would only plant high risk veg salad and root crops this spring if contracted to a buyer.. growing them on spec would be a massive gamble but lets spin that wheel again!

Most are contracted.