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Arable Farming
Cropping
who s bullish or whos bearish
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<blockquote data-quote="Brisel" data-source="post: 4678172" data-attributes="member: 166"><p>Global stocks are massive, so no major price upsets unless currency shifts in a big way IMHO.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]620378[/ATTACH]</p><p>Source: <a href="http://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-sd.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-sd.aspx</a></p><p></p><p>Ok, so the stocks-to-use ratio is 23.5% which isn't excessive but you won't see much price volatility until it dips well below 20%. Within the total grains stats you've got different levels for wheat vs maize, oilseeds etc. The story for wheat is worse - 33.5% stocks-to-use with little voltility until you drop to 20%. Stocks of wheat are still building, it's only maize that is coming down a bit.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]620380[/ATTACH]</p><p>Conclusion? Sideways market for the time being. Sell into rallies as the £ will fluctuate with economic & Brexit news. IMO there might be a bit of upside in milling wheat & malting barley as 2017 harvest quality wasn't great in the South. Lots of quality grain heading for the feed bins around here.</p><p></p><p>Disclaimer - I know feck all about grain markets. My rolling average of sales (85% of old crop priced) are a few quid under the current spot market which is hardly at its peak anyway. I'm typing this in a farm office in Dorset, not a beach on Necker Island so my advice is what you've paid for it i.e. diddly squat! <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite8" alt=":D" title="Big Grin :D" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":D" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brisel, post: 4678172, member: 166"] Global stocks are massive, so no major price upsets unless currency shifts in a big way IMHO. [ATTACH=full]620378[/ATTACH] Source: [URL]http://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-sd.aspx[/URL] Ok, so the stocks-to-use ratio is 23.5% which isn't excessive but you won't see much price volatility until it dips well below 20%. Within the total grains stats you've got different levels for wheat vs maize, oilseeds etc. The story for wheat is worse - 33.5% stocks-to-use with little voltility until you drop to 20%. Stocks of wheat are still building, it's only maize that is coming down a bit. [ATTACH=full]620380[/ATTACH] Conclusion? Sideways market for the time being. Sell into rallies as the £ will fluctuate with economic & Brexit news. IMO there might be a bit of upside in milling wheat & malting barley as 2017 harvest quality wasn't great in the South. Lots of quality grain heading for the feed bins around here. Disclaimer - I know feck all about grain markets. My rolling average of sales (85% of old crop priced) are a few quid under the current spot market which is hardly at its peak anyway. I'm typing this in a farm office in Dorset, not a beach on Necker Island so my advice is what you've paid for it i.e. diddly squat! :D [/QUOTE]
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who s bullish or whos bearish
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