Combinables Price Tracker

limestone brash · Oct 17, 2016

I'm always amazed at the number of people on here selling next years harvest -why so hasty?
I haven't sold all of last years yet never mind this harvest just gone.

CRM AgriCommodities · Oct 17, 2016

Grain Buyer said:
if your were a farmer selling OSR, what info, other then "price is rising" does this graph tell you?

Not sure if thats a question for us or for the farmers on the forum, nevertheless, I will say what information a chart like this could give anyone, other than 'the price is rising' (N.B. candlestick charts are far more useful and provide more information)

1. The price is rising and continues to rise without losing momentum, a seller might benefit from waiting to see if this momentum could be sustained before trading.
2. Being in GBP, this chart allows a seller to view the ex-farm price offered by a buyer relative to the futures and therefore establish his/ her 'basis'. Useful if records are kept over a period of time.
3. The chart gives a good indication of current prices relative to historical values and shows how a strong 'technical'/ psychological resistance level is present at £350/T. a break above this level could indicate further moves higher, particularly if that resistance becomes a market support. The same resistance levels are present on the € chart €387/93/T Nov-16. We used the same principle in August when deciding how significant £300 resistance was, a break higher was what led us to not sell OSR and still be exposed to current, higher prices.
4. prices are now at the highest level since harvest 2013 (could help a farmer justify a sale, or not?) or £105/T higher than the bottom.
5. The market has risen 15% since harvest (fairly useless fact but interesting all the same, especially if looking to justify an option strategy).
6. This chart could also be viewed alongside volume, momentum, and many other indicators for those who took more of a technical interest in markets.

Charts provide very useful information, especially if you subscribe to the school of thought, 'fundamental information is already included in the price'.

franklin · Oct 17, 2016

The trend is your friend.

Baling Hay · Oct 17, 2016

CRM AgriCommodities said:
Not sure if thats a question for us or for the farmers on the forum, nevertheless, I will say what information a chart like this could give anyone, other than 'the price is rising' (N.B. candlestick charts are far more useful and provide more information)

1. The price is rising and continues to rise without losing momentum, a seller might benefit from waiting to see if this momentum could be sustained before trading.
2. Being in GBP, this chart allows a seller to view the ex-farm price offered by a buyer relative to the futures and therefore establish his/ her 'basis'. Useful if records are kept over a period of time.
3. The chart gives a good indication of current prices relative to historical values and shows how a strong 'technical'/ psychological resistance level is present at £350/T. a break above this level could indicate further moves higher, particularly if that resistance becomes a market support. The same resistance levels are present on the € chart €387/93/T Nov-16. We used the same principle in August when deciding how significant £300 resistance was, a break higher was what led us to not sell OSR and still be exposed to current, higher prices.
4. prices are now at the highest level since harvest 2013 (could help a farmer justify a sale, or not?) or £105/T higher than the bottom.
5. The market has risen 15% since harvest (fairly useless fact but interesting all the same, especially if looking to justify an option strategy).
6. This chart could also be viewed alongside volume, momentum, and many other indicators for those who took more of a technical interest in markets.

Charts provide very useful information, especially if you subscribe to the school of thought, 'fundamental information is already included in the price'.

Bullcorn, UK OSR price charts are useless as 50% is driven by currency, the other half is Matif. Two decisions are independent so UK prices are merely a by product of the two

Neddy flanders · Oct 17, 2016

£350 OSR

static said:
The trend is your friend.

til the bend at the end...

CRM AgriCommodities · Oct 17, 2016

Steakeater said:
Bullcorn, UK OSR price charts are useless as 50% is driven by currency, the other half is Matif. Two decisions are independent so UK prices are merely a by product of the two

This chart is by no means useless, nor perfect as it is using a €uro denominated contract priced in sterling which is why you would look at both charts. The very fact that this chart is made up of both currency and fundamentals of the Euronext market would give it more value to a UK farmer selling in sterling, as you say, its 'a by-product of the two'. Unfortunately, at present there is not a rapeseed futures contract denominated in sterling. Maybe an opportunity for a bank to create such a contract as a swap to allow farmers to manage risk, such as those offered to Australian famers on CME, as the also have limited options:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/australian-dollar-wheat-swaps.pdf

CRM AgriCommodities · Oct 17, 2016

Evening Market Report:
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Cereals

In thin trading volumes, front month UK wheat futures prices traded at their highest level since Dec-2014 on strong demand, short covering and further Sterling weakness. Nov-17 LIFFE Feed wheat traded at a new contract high of £140/T.
According to Safras & Mercado, Brazilian corn plantings are 50.8% complete vs 48% LY. The total country's summer corn area is seen 6% up on LY to 4.15Mln ha.
Saudi Arabia purchased 610kT of hard wheat from Germany, Poland and Latvia.
The CFTC reported on Friday that speculators cut their record ~165K lots CBOT Wheat short positions by more than 18.9K contracts last week.

Oilseeds

From the open, Nov-16 Euronext OSR prices jumped higher and hit a new contract high of nearly £355 and €392.50 on the back of soaring palm oil prices & Canadian canola harvest delays.
Despite Malaysian palm oil exports for Oct 1-15 falling 5.2% m-o-m [Source: SGS], palm oil futures prices soared more than 5% over the last two sessions, reaching their highest level since early Apr-16, on expectations of lower-than-expected Oct production output and ongoing ringgit weakness.
NOPA members crushed 129.405Mln bu of US Soybean in September (+2.1% mom) - the highest Sep figure since 2007 - & 1.3% higher than expected by the trade [See chart of the Day].
According to Safras & Mercado, the Brazilian soybean plantings are 17.3% complete vs 11.2% LY. The total country's planted area is pegged at 33.54Mln ha vs 33.18LY whilst production could jump by 6.5% yoy to a record 103.5MlnT.

Macros

The Sterling started the week on a negative note versus a basket of currencies after a sell off in the British gov bond market was observed today.
Technical selling & bearish Iranian comments were the main catalysts behind the fall in oil prices today with WTI dropping below the psychological $50/bbl mark.

Baling Hay · Oct 18, 2016

CRM AgriCommodities said:
This chart is by no means useless, nor perfect as it is using a €uro denominated contract priced in sterling which is why you would look at both charts. The very fact that this chart is made up of both currency and fundamentals of the Euronext market would give it more value to a UK farmer selling in sterling, as you say, its 'a by-product of the two'. Unfortunately, at present there is not a rapeseed futures contract denominated in sterling. Maybe an opportunity for a bank to create such a contract as a swap to allow farmers to manage risk, such as those offered to Australian famers on CME, as the also have limited options:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/australian-dollar-wheat-swaps.pdf

No bank would ever be interested for the small volumes used and if they were the margin would be massive to the point that the farmer couldn't afford the tool due to the low volumes.

Oh, the GBP rapeseed chart is useless as it is the GBP devaluation that has driven the majority of that price rise until the past week. Might as well trade currency.

gone · Oct 18, 2016

Grain Buyer said:
if your were a farmer selling OSR, what info, other then "price is rising" does this graph tell you?

GBP is dropping

gone · Oct 18, 2016

Anyone looking for $ contracts yet?

Grain Buyer · Oct 18, 2016

it's just plotting a few prices over time. Doesn't tell you anything other than OSR was cheaper a few months ago and now the price has gone up. That's it, in a nut shell. No future telling or anomaly, just month and price. The only thing you can take from that graph is that prices go up and down......that'll be £2000 please.

Grains Guru · Oct 18, 2016

Nice work if you can get it lol

Hampton · Oct 19, 2016

Grain Buyer said:
it's just plotting a few prices over time. Doesn't tell you anything other than OSR was cheaper a few months ago and now the price has gone up. That's it, in a nut shell. No future telling or anomaly, just month and price. The only thing you can take from that graph is that prices go up and down......that'll be £2000 please.

Future telling? Please, if your going to accuse someone else of talking horlicks, don't try and justify it by doing exactly that yourself!

Grain Buyer · Oct 19, 2016

Hampton.....think you've missed the point, or at least explain what you are on about.

Hampton · Oct 19, 2016

Grain Buyer said:
Hampton.....think you've missed the point, or at least explain what you are on about.

You have said there is no future telling in his graph. Future telling doesn't exist. Future speculating on the other hand does.
I think it's very disingenuous of a grain trader to hammer someone's service (not that I subscribe or deal with them) when your whole job involves educated guessing!

Baling Hay · Oct 19, 2016

Hampton said:
You have said there is no future telling in his graph. Future telling doesn't exist. Future speculating on the other hand does.
I think it's very disingenuous of a grain trader to hammer someone's service (not that I subscribe or deal with them) when your whole job involves educated guessing!

I don't think he does any speculating as a "Grain Buyer". Maybe I am wrong though?

Grain Buyer · Oct 19, 2016

Hampton said:
You have said there is no future telling in his graph. Future telling doesn't exist. Future speculating on the other hand does.
I think it's very disingenuous of a grain trader to hammer someone's service (not that I subscribe or deal with them) when your whole job involves educated guessing!

thought so......you have missed the point, whilst at the same time agreeing with me. First of all, stop assuming you know what I do, secondly that graph is simply time against price, it only tells you the "known". I'm not for a second suggesting there is some mystical graph that does tell you the future......they don't exist. Hence my comment, it's worthless as anything other than a pretty picture that shows us what has happened in the past.

Daniel · Oct 19, 2016

Back to prices, £146/7 Nov/Dec 14% Crusoe.

franklin · Oct 19, 2016

Daniel said:
Back to prices, £146/7 Nov/Dec 14% Crusoe.

Ex farm or delivered?

Daniel · Oct 19, 2016

Assume ex-farm, Dad did it yesterday.

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