Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker

jendan · Feb 15, 2017

Henarar said:
And there was me thinking you were a good stockman
you wouldn't sell them all forward just like most corn boys don't sell all their corn forward,
as for getting them in spec that would be up to you as a good farmer and it would be up to the buyer to come up with a price for them, if they want these in spec lambs they can put their money where their mouth is

In the real world it does not work out like this.They will offer you a bog standard price for the "in spec" ones,and much less for what they consider to be out of spec at the time.

aangus · Feb 15, 2017

I would think they will be going to kill, then the little ones to run on and spoil the spring lamb trade come May early June

Henarar · Feb 15, 2017

jendan said:
In the real world it does not work out like this.They will offer you a bog standard price for the "in spec" ones,and much less for what they consider to be out of spec at the time.

It would be up to you what you did with the ones that you did not forward sell
that aside the question still stands what price would you want to forward sell in spec lambs this time next year

gone up the hill · Feb 15, 2017

Henarar said:
And there was me thinking you were a good stockman
you wouldn't sell them all forward just like most corn boys don't sell all their corn forward,
as for getting them in spec that would be up to you as a good farmer and it would be up to the buyer to come up with a price for them, if they want these in spec lambs they can put their money where their mouth is

Being a good farmer has nothing to do with it, you could send a load of lambs this week and a load next week, all the same type of lambs/ fat cover and one week they will be fine and the next week they will be too fat or vice versa.

So many variables to what lambs are worth in 12 months time exchange rate/ amount of lambs about/ sales in the shops etc etc, no way a buyer can forward buy lambs unless they offer a low price in the first place to cover themselves.

Also you would get hammered on any out of spec lambs and when fhinshing animals its the average price that matters!

Totally different to grain where you know the spec of it before you sell it.

I never thought that you would be a supporter of something that would totally undermine livestock markets because what you are suggesting would do just that!

gone up the hill · Feb 15, 2017

Henarar said:
It would be up to you what you did with the ones that you did not forward sell
that aside the question still stands what price would you want to forward sell in spec lambs this time next year

Tell me what price store lambs will be in 12 months time/ how much grass/ fodder crops are about/ what the exchange rate is/ what sales are like both at home and abroad etc etc then we can give you a price.

Reality is no one knows what any of the above will be in 12 months time.

Henarar · Feb 15, 2017

gone up the hill said:
I never thought that you would be a supporter of something that would totally undermine livestock markets because what you are suggesting would do just that!

I didn't say I supported it I asked a question

gone up the hill said:
Tell me what price store lambs will be in 12 months time/ how much grass/ fodder crops are about/ what the exchange rate is/ what sales are like both at home and abroad etc etc then we can give you a price.

Reality is no one knows what any of the above will be in 12 months time.

it don't matter what the market price is in 12 months time a lamb could be worth 50 quid it could be worth 150 its how much you would take for them sold forward

Six Dogs · Feb 15, 2017

Ok tin hat on,if a farmer knows the cost of production in his business including a payment for unpaid family labour,then it would be reasonable to sell forward.
Yes grass growth,root crop variations will differ however there is a reluctance to acknowledge what the cop is

Six Dogs · Feb 15, 2017

Sorry should also put that cop is exactly that,does not include profit so that would need to be added before any forward selling took place

Henarar · Feb 15, 2017

Six Dogs said:
Ok tin hat on,if a farmer knows the cost of production in his business including a payment for unpaid family labour,then it would be reasonable to sell forward.
Yes grass growth,root crop variations will differ however there is a reluctance to acknowledge what the cop is

it would be a dam sight more reasonable to sell forward for a price that you had a fair idea you could make a profit at than to produce them anyway and hope, which is what happens now

Henarar · Feb 15, 2017

Six Dogs said:
Sorry should also put that cop is exactly that,does not include profit so that would need to be added before any forward selling took place

yes you would have to look at cop but I am not suggesting it should be linked

cowboysupper · Feb 15, 2017

Large producer near us sells forward on a quarterly basis. He knows exactly what his price is for that period. Sometimes it's above the market price and sometimes it's below. He's happy though. He knows what his COP is and is satisfied with the margin he will make. He says this gives him more time to focus on ensuring all his lambs leave the farm in spec at the least cost rather than worrying about the market jumping up and down.

Payment structures like that won't suit everyone but I don't see what the problem if some producers feel this is the right way for them to conduct their business. Surely it's all about ensuring farmers have options?

whitefox · Feb 15, 2017

DB67 said:
It's a marketing thing, but there is certainly more beef from the actual beef herd as opposed to Dairy herd.

You also have the idea of outwintered Angus cattle etc slowly matured on heathery hills!

sell the sizzle not the sausage

gone up the hill · Feb 15, 2017

Henarar said:
it would be a dam sight more reasonable to sell forward for a price that you had a fair idea you could make a profit at than to produce them anyway and hope, which is what happens now

How the hell can a store lamb fhinsher forward sell unless he/ she knows the cost of their main ingredient aka the store lamb at the time when they forward sell their fat lambs??

If you would forward sell me 200 store lambs in Sept that are 35/38 kilos liveweight, R grade or better and will set the price at £50 head then I could forward sell them as fat lambs now! but you wouldn't as these lambs might be worth £60 come sept and that is the problem!

Trouble is you wouldn't as a store producer do that so there is no way in hell I can forward sell my lambs because I could set the price of the fat lambs at £70 head but to fulfil these sales I would have to pay £65 a lamb..

( and this is what happened to arable farmers in 2012 who forward sold their wheat etc at say £110t only to harvest 1/3rd of their 5 year average and then had to buy in spec wheat at £160t to cover what they had forward sold at a great loss )

Henarar · Feb 15, 2017

gone up the hill said:
How the hell can a store lamb fhinsher forward sell unless he/ she knows the cost of their main ingredient aka the store lamb at the time when they forward sell their fat lambs??

If you would forward sell me 200 store lambs in Sept that are 35/38 kilos liveweight, R grade or better and will set the price at £50 head then I could forward sell them as fat lambs now! but you wouldn't as these lambs might be worth £60 come sept and that is the problem!

Trouble is you wouldn't as a store producer do that so there is no way in hell I can forward sell my lambs because I could set the price of the fat lambs at £70 head but to fulfil these sales I would have to pay £65 a lamb..

( and this is what happened to arable farmers in 2012 who forward sold their wheat etc at say £110t only to harvest 1/3rd of their 5 year average and then had to buy in spec wheat at £160t to cover what they had forward sold at a great loss )

that would be the chance you take, so what would be the price ?

caveman · Feb 15, 2017

Nobody is going to sign up to forwad buy thousands of in spec lambs.
What would happen if twice the number they require hit spec on the same week.
Half of them will be over weight the next week or add to the next week's supply.
They will leave the problem of getting them right week to week with the farmer and let him take the loss of letting them getting too heavy.

Henarar · Feb 15, 2017

It was a simple enough question

onthehoof · Feb 16, 2017

gone up the hill said:
Complete waste of time as you could not forward sell all your lambs in case 1 : you didn't get as many as you hoped for and 2 not enough might be in spec.

The plain and simple reason the fhinshers that are holding 1000s of lambs that really should have been long gone is because they paid far too much for them as stores, utter madness to be paying £65 for a store lamb when if you sent the same lamb but fat the day you paid £65 the fat one would only come back at £70.

Store lambs have been £10/15 head too expensive all season!

Reality is the supermarkets have priced lamb in at what they are paying deadweight now, if it starts to go up they use imported meat to bring it down again.

You say that lambs have been £15 too dear but surely that's good for the man producing them he's hardly going to say no no that's too much have a bit back. The fact that someone paid too much for something that he thought would be a certain price in 6 months and now is not going to be, comes down to either greed or naivety. Hogs have been £100 the last 3 years at Easter so all these finishers expect it to be the same this year but you have to read the market, more lambs born last year so likely to be oversupply, always going to be winners and losers in this game but I never feel sorry for someone who paid too much for something out of choice.

mineshalffull · Feb 16, 2017

never the breeder and the feeder in the same year comes to mind

pine_guy · Feb 16, 2017

Went to a suckler cow dispersal bereavement sale today at Wigton. Mix of nice commercial cows were an unreal trade as many were well into their teens. Plenty of cows 13-15 year old with £500-700 calves at foot making £1600-1900!

Strangely I came home with an empty trailer.

yellowbelly · Feb 16, 2017

pine_guy said:
Went to a suckler cow dispersal bereavement sale today at Wigton. Mix of nice commercial cows were an unreal trade as many were well into their teens. Plenty of cows 13-15 year old with £500-700 calves at foot making £1600-1900!

Strangely I came home with an empty trailer.

Ah well, at least some poor bloke's life's work hadn't been in vain - at least his stock sold well after he'd gone.

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