- Location
- Easter ross
Don’t panic. Sitting on ours for now and shut the gate a month ago. They’re happily grazing sb stubbles at the minute ticking over and will get some silage when they clean it up then come inside when I think we’ll go for it.
Lambs and brexit
- Thread starter Dave6170
- Start date
- Location
- Leicestershire
It'll be fine 
. I'm holding more back than other years, probably one more draw next week then the rest will be on a store period for the spring.
Worked well last year
. I'm holding more back than other years, probably one more draw next week then the rest will be on a store period for the spring. Worked well last year
- Location
- South Wales UK
Get it done.
Out we go
- Location
- Devon
Didn't you fill up with stores as per advice?
- Location
- Romney Marsh
Life experiences.............. in the 70's we were all going to die through the cold war,
in the 80's we were all going to die through AIDS,
in the 90's through BSE
in 2000 through computers not recognising the new century.
Survived all that lot, so leaving Europe will be a breeze. Nothing ever turns out as bad as the pessimists predict !
- Location
- Montgomeryshire
No new markets are going to 'open up' overnight. Export certificates usually take years to negotiate. There may well be new markets there one day, but it certainly won't be in April 2019.
Assuming a deal of some sort is done, we will be in a transition period, where exports will carry on (tariff free) as before. If however we have a 'no deal' scenario, then our export markets could close their doors overnight, for several/many months until something is sorted out to allow trade to go ahead again. That is the sheep industry's biggest threat IMO, with 2001 prices all over again.
If May gets the current deal through, which is looking increasingly likely (thankfully) now the showboating appears to be dieing down, we will at least have a degree of certainty regarding trade during the 2 years of transition.
As to the OP, how big are your balls @Dave6170 ? Lambs will be short in the Spring, and plenty will push them out ahead of March due to the current uncertainty. If you're brave enough, you might make an absolute killing by holding them...…..or you might give them away for less than you could get for them as stores today.
gone up the hill
Member
- Location
- Devon
May will get her deal thru parliament so nothing will change in the short term.
Long term her deal is an utter disaster for the country, we will end up a vassel state of the EU and unable to leave due to the terms she has sold us out on, what will happen when this becomes clear 3/4 years down the road will be that the UK will end up ruined economical as we will have very hard trading terms with the EU and will be unable to sign any trade agreements elsewhere.
Utter madness for any country to sign such a one sided deal where you cannot leave unless the other party gives you permission to do so which is what her deal basically amounts to.
To put it into context, imagine if you had to get your neighbours permission to leave your house?? because that is what the UK's relship with the EU will actually be.
Big big trouble ahead if she gets this deal thru!
Long term her deal is an utter disaster for the country, we will end up a vassel state of the EU and unable to leave due to the terms she has sold us out on, what will happen when this becomes clear 3/4 years down the road will be that the UK will end up ruined economical as we will have very hard trading terms with the EU and will be unable to sign any trade agreements elsewhere.
Utter madness for any country to sign such a one sided deal where you cannot leave unless the other party gives you permission to do so which is what her deal basically amounts to.
To put it into context, imagine if you had to get your neighbours permission to leave your house?? because that is what the UK's relship with the EU will actually be.
Big big trouble ahead if she gets this deal thru!
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- Location
- West Wales
not quite sure about those comparisons,but.... Hiv/Aids has killed millions in Africa and continues to do so up to this day.
BSE cost some an absolute packet with ramifications of course to this day ....
hopefully brexit wont be as scary as the Cold War was...
...........but will be more like the y2k bug
betweenthelines
Member
- Location
- southwest
For what it's worth, here's my view:
We currently export x thousand tonnes of lamb/pork/beef/whatever to the rest of the EU. If this could be sourced from outside the EU at a better price, they wouldn't be buying from UK in the first place
After Brexit (hard, soft or no deal) the EU will still have the demand for the same amount of produce, which will have to be imported from outside the EU. So where will they get it from? My guess is they'll still buy from the UK due to the known quality and production standards as well as consumer demand for a known product.
This of course applies to everything the UK sells into EU, if we sell £100m worth of car parts (for example) to the EU, no one else has the "ready to go" capacity or tariff free access to replace that. Even if we have to pay tariffs we still have the already established supply chain and quality standards.
Don't panic Mr Mainwaring, nothing much will change
We currently export x thousand tonnes of lamb/pork/beef/whatever to the rest of the EU. If this could be sourced from outside the EU at a better price, they wouldn't be buying from UK in the first place
After Brexit (hard, soft or no deal) the EU will still have the demand for the same amount of produce, which will have to be imported from outside the EU. So where will they get it from? My guess is they'll still buy from the UK due to the known quality and production standards as well as consumer demand for a known product.
This of course applies to everything the UK sells into EU, if we sell £100m worth of car parts (for example) to the EU, no one else has the "ready to go" capacity or tariff free access to replace that. Even if we have to pay tariffs we still have the already established supply chain and quality standards.
Don't panic Mr Mainwaring, nothing much will change
- Location
- Easter ross
So so far we’ve got it’ll be alright jack, TM will get it through parliament and it will be a no deal
- Location
- Montgomeryshire
Of course they will still want our lamb, but they won’tbe Willing to pay the extra cost that a 70% WTO tarrif (in the event of ‘no deal’) will incur, so we would have to absorb all/some of that via a reduced farmgate price. Ouch!
Even that arrangement wouldn’t be in place by March though, so we could effectively have exports stopped, until such time that arrangements are made. Double ouch!!
If that scenario does unfold, beef (& most other commodity) prices will be protected by imports being stopped pending the same agreements. The sheep industry is most at risk, along with any other businesses that rely heavily on exports to the EU.
- Location
- Montgomeryshire
Again, these ‘new market opportunities’ won’t be organised overnight. Those markets will definitely not be available in April 2019, however much Farage’s disciples like to tell us.
- Location
- Montgomeryshire
Yes, that is what the showboating Brexiteer politicians have been saying. I read May’sdeal as being an agreement covering only the transition period (which has a definite finishing time), and an agreement of terms for a backstop if we still haven’t finalised trading terms at the end of that period. It will likely not even be relevant.
IF we do end up using that backstop agreement, then both the EU and the UK government have to agree to terminate that agreement. I would suggest that, if the EU ‘didn’t let us leave’ when there were not surmountable issues, as the potstirrers would have us believe, then we could still walk away with a ‘no deal’ scenario.
Talks on the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU haven’t even begun yet.
livestock 1
Member
Carry on as normal and ignore the B word rubbish.
Hoggs will be at least as dear as last year come the spring.
Could easily be a lump dearer
We are keeping a fair number for the spring and when I get shot of some store cattle I will be buying store lambs in the next few weeks
Hoggs will be at least as dear as last year come the spring.
Could easily be a lump dearer
We are keeping a fair number for the spring and when I get shot of some store cattle I will be buying store lambs in the next few weeks
Hilly
Member
- Location
- Scottish Borders.
I admire your confidence, i dont share it.
Dave6170
Member
- Location
- Watten, caithness
Attachments
Greythundercloudys
Member
Where are these new markets been all these years? And how are they going to magically appear on 1st of April?
livestock 1
Member
I quite like the gamble of it all.
I have never kept less than 600 for hoggs for the last 25 years
The most was 3000 I didn’t make a shilling that year