Italy's in shut down

livestock 1 · Mar 30, 2020

John Slejpner said:
I believe so yes.

Quantietive easing on a grand scale bigger than 2009 with no end in sight.
So what is the effects of such actions?
What % devaluation are we looking at?
I assume then high inflation?
Then subsequent interest rate rises to counteract this?

Princess Pooper · Mar 30, 2020

Mr Mackay said:
This is true . Our contractor who fences says hes still going ,but supplies of rails and stuff drying up ,with the odd place shut and the others waiting for deliveries they have no idea when will come !

Our local fencing suppliers open to trade customers, all accounts suspended, ie stock must be paid for when ordered. All orders to be phoned through first, no general public sales. Livestock farmers (or fencing contractors working for them) prioritised to help keep stock in!

james ds · Mar 30, 2020

gone up the hill said:
Save 20,000 from the virus

Or kill 200,000+ thousand from the economic effects of a prolonged lockdown for saving the 20,000 from the virus.

Let alone all the millions who will have no jobs/ food or housing from a prolonged lockdown.

Are you and your family ready to die because the way your talking you are prepared to die for the good of the country . Your advising the government to let more people die are you volunteering to be a victim . So the question I’m asking you is DO YOU WANT TO DIE..?

farmerm · Mar 30, 2020

livestock 1 said:
Quantietive easing on a grand scale bigger than 2009 with no end in sight.
So what is the effects of such actions?
What % devaluation are we looking at?
I assume then high inflation?
Then subsequent interest rate rises to counteract this?

Devaluation of the £ Good for British Farmers
High interest rate rises Good for British Farmers (or at least a significant portion who do not have borrowings)

Things are looking up

John Slejpner · Mar 30, 2020

livestock 1 said:
Quantietive easing on a grand scale bigger than 2009 with no end in sight.
So what is the effects of such actions?
What % devaluation are we looking at?
I assume then high inflation?
Then subsequent interest rate rises to counteract this?

Pretty much how i assume this plays out, yes.

But there will be huge effort and thought hopefully given to not following this route...but it is hard to see any other short-term workable solution.

A load of new money was created in 2008 - used to refinance banks - and did not cause inflation because at the same time as banks were recapitalised they were forced to adhere to new lending rules / keep more cash in reserve etc. The Basel requirements etc,
Combined with "Austerity" (which wasn't really but anyway) the velocity of money was slowed and inflation appeared to be reasonably controlled.

But interest rates were kept artificially low way too long, below the rate of inflation, and this causes all sorts of systemic problems...which are coming to a head now.

farmerm · Mar 30, 2020

gone up the hill said:
Just like the government advisors have done who bought about this lockdown.

First they said 500,000 would die, then it went back to 265,000 then 100,000 then 20,000 an now 6,000

They are making it up as they go along.

Hate to say it but the government are now governing by putting the fear of death into people for no good reason.

Italy and Spain are close to 1000 dead per day and still rising, 100,000 deaths in the UK is still well within the realms of possibility, so is 500,000.... we really don't know until we get proper testing to get an accurate picture of just how many (or how few) of the population have had the virus. Of course "they" are making it up as they go along based on the best information available.

Hindsight · Mar 30, 2020

Coronavirus: Hungary government gets sweeping powers

Critics accuse Prime Minister Viktor Orban of exploiting the coronavirus crisis to silence opposition.

www.bbc.co.uk

Very dangerous times. Hungary is in effect now a dictatorship. A European country, a member state of the European Union that is now no longer a functioning democracy. Victor Albahn did not need to go this far. Will we see further Eastern States go the same route. Are we seeing the end of the EU. And a return to totalitarianism in the Eastern States.

Very worrying times hidden away behind the threat of CV19.

John Slejpner · Mar 30, 2020

farmerm said:
Devaluation of the £ Good for British Farmers
High interest rate rises Good for British Farmers (or at least a significant portion who do not have borrowings)

Things are looking up

Any eejit can devalue a currency.
It is generally not considered a good idea to do so.

jendan · Mar 30, 2020

Hindsight said:
Coronavirus: Hungary government gets sweeping powers

Critics accuse Prime Minister Viktor Orban of exploiting the coronavirus crisis to silence opposition.

www.bbc.co.uk

Very dangerous times. Hungary is in effect now a dictatorship. A European country, a member state of the European Union that is now no longer a functioning democracy. Victor Albahn did not need to go this far. Will we see further Eastern States go the same route. Are we seeing the end of the EU. And a return to totalitarianism in the Eastern States.

Very worrying times hidden away behind the threat of CV19.

Will be interesting to see what happens in Belarus,and other countries that are not having any lockdown..........not yet anyway.

John Slejpner · Mar 30, 2020

Hindsight said:
Coronavirus: Hungary government gets sweeping powers

Critics accuse Prime Minister Viktor Orban of exploiting the coronavirus crisis to silence opposition.

www.bbc.co.uk

Very dangerous times. Hungary is in effect now a dictatorship. A European country, a member state of the European Union that is now no longer a functioning democracy. Victor Albahn did not need to go this far. Will we see further Eastern States go the same route. Are we seeing the end of the EU. And a return to totalitarianism in the Eastern States.

Very worrying times hidden away behind the threat of CV19.

See Ambrose Evans Pritchard in todays Telegraph.
EU is under serious existential threat if it cannot agree a way forward quickly - Spain Italy France want massive FED / UK type stimulus ....rest don't.

Hindsight · Mar 30, 2020

John Slejpner said:
See Ambrose Evans Pritchard in todays Telegraph.
EU is under serious existential threat if it cannot agree a way forward quickly - Spain Italy France want massive FED / UK type stimulus ....rest don't.

The Euro is about done for. I cannot see how he bundesbank can stand the requirements of Italy etc after this. We live in interesting times. I hope this does not cause widespread damage in Africa, otherwise half Africa will walk its way into Southern Europe.

John Slejpner · Mar 30, 2020

Hindsight said:
The Euro is about done for. I cannot see how he bundesbank can stand the requirements of Italy etc after this. We live in interesting times. I hope this does not cause widespread damage in Africa, otherwise half Africa will walk its way into Southern Europe.

No comment.

Poorbuthappy · Mar 30, 2020

John Slejpner said:
Any eejit can devalue a currency.
It is generally not considered a good idea to do so.

Would it matter if the whole world did it?!

onthehoof · Mar 30, 2020

livestock 1 said:
Quantietive easing on a grand scale bigger than 2009 with no end in sight.
So what is the effects of such actions?
What % devaluation are we looking at?
I assume then high inflation?
Then subsequent interest rate rises to counteract this?

But doesn’t currency devaluation work when it is just one country that’s having problems e.g. Argentina a few years back, its economy went into free fall mainly due to government policy which resulted in devaluation and hyper inflation its money was basically worthless when pitted against the US dollar, but in this situation (and also the 2008 crisis) its a worldwide problem with pretty much all economies in the same boat especially the US dollar so effectively they all devalue by roughly the same amount so cancel the effects out meaning very little inflation and no need to raise interest rates

stewart · Mar 31, 2020

Martin Holden said:
World oil price has crashed as demand has crashed. Just think what would happen if 30-40% cars and vans were electric??

We could use oil to power the generators.

Hindsight · Mar 31, 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business...23708t/oil&link_location=live-reporting-story

[/URL]

Forget electic in short term? Will Trump and USA do all in their power to support Shale oil and gas for national security reasons. In which case what about the world market being flooded with US maize, previously destined for ethanol.

If oil price remains low for long, Russia and Saudi reliant on petrodollars to support autocratic semi totalitarian societies will experience cashflow difficulties, as will large populous countries such as Nigeria. In all these cases how will the central government and the semi dictatorial leadership control the people.

Cowmangav · Mar 31, 2020

gone up the hill said:
Just like the government advisors have done who bought about this lockdown.

First they said 500,000 would die, then it went back to 265,000 then 100,000 then 20,000 an now 6,000

They are making it up as they go along.

Hate to say it but the government are now governing by putting the fear of death into people for no good reason.

Very insensitive of you to rabbit on about declining figures , when Wales had 14 deaths today - much its worst day ever.

USA on 565 deaths as I type , might not be the end total - and again its worst day of deaths ever. Total deaths now of the order of that of 9/11 .

Cowmangav · Mar 31, 2020

The deaths for 30th March will be over 3,700 and as such will be the tallest bar on the chart , when added later this am.

Shocking how small the bars representing deaths in China in February now look.

GeorgeK · Mar 31, 2020

abitdaft said:
If your neighbours beasts came down with a deadly new virus that had an initial death rate of doubling every 3 days what would you do with your cattle that shared a fence/march? If the answer to that question is isolating the older cows because the older cows were going to die of something else anyway and just let the younger beasts take their chances I would be amazed! This is a new virus and they can only go on what they know so far, I would far rather they overestimate this virus than under.

I would like to expand on the cattle analogy, I'm making no comparisons with a human situation, it's purely for debate.
let's say you have a herd of 100. The death rate without intervention is maybe 6% so you'd lose 6. 5 would be old or have another illness 1 would be young and healthy.
With intervention the death rate can be reduced to 1%, so you'd lose 1. However this comes at a price. The UK has borrowed 50% of its' GDP to combat the virus already and this will rise considerably, so imagine the cost of saving 5 cattle would be borrowing over 50% of turnover (you have no savings), and shutting the farm down for 6 months. This leads to massive interest payments and loss of earnings. The funds for vets and welfare will be much reduced as the debt is payed back, which will have a severe impact on the health of the herd for many years.
Still an easy choice? As I say, purely for debate we cannot of course equate human lives to cattle

livestock 1 · Mar 31, 2020

GeorgeK said:
I would like to expand on the cattle analogy, I'm making no comparisons with a human situation, it's purely for debate.
let's say you have a herd of 100. The death rate without intervention is maybe 6% so you'd lose 6. 5 would be old or have another illness 1 would be young and healthy.
With intervention the death rate can be reduced to 1%, so you'd lose 1. However this comes at a price. The UK has borrowed 50% of its' GDP to combat the virus already and this will rise considerably, so imagine the cost of saving 5 cattle would be borrowing over 50% of turnover (you have no savings), and shutting the farm down for 6 months. This leads to massive interest payments and loss of earnings. The funds for vets and welfare will be much reduced as the debt is payed back, which will have a severe impact on the health of the herd for many years.
Still an easy choice? As I say, purely for debate we cannot of course equate human lives to cattle

Totally agree.
However your farm has a money printing machine in a barn so you can print more every time you need some. You also can keep borrowing money which you never have to pay back. You will always get paid and the people you owe money too will have to endure more issues than yourself.

Italy's in shut down

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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