Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker

neilo · Sep 28, 2021

Shebb90 said:
It be interesting to see the facts for that and in terms of where killing numbers are,
My thinking is that trade has been good all the way though so people have kept killing...and in Theory that should make them short later, and maybe with store prices being so good people have push them out earlier but maybe I am wrong and try to convince my self at these store price are fine and nothing to worry bout

Increasing numbers of stores will be getting sold privately, especially those being put away quietly by the retailers, so I wouldn't use numbers at store sales as any particular gauge tbh.

As I posted above, HCC (the Welsh AHDB) are reporting killing numbers being down 10% currently. We all know census numbers for lambs on farm are usually nonsense, but kill numbers are pretty accurate, and no reason to think there was a particularly disastrous lambing nationally this year?

I can't remember the figures, but I don't think kill numbers through the summer have been much higher than normal, and a 10% drop at the time of the peak glut is pretty seismic.
Maybe more are being retained for breeding, rather than filling those mule breeder's pockets? That certainly won't account for 10% though.

I expect lamb price to stay OK, but without the massive uplift that we saw this Spring. If you can get £100+ for them now, without incurring a wintering cost, crack on imo.

Poorbuthappy · Sep 28, 2021

Just because said:
View attachment 988210

56-72 kg straight off the ewe at 5 months

Northeastfarmer · Sep 28, 2021

I will put my neck on the block and say Hoggs will be a decent trade next spring
£130-£140

Anymulewilldo · Sep 28, 2021

Poorbuthappy said:
56-72 kg straight off the ewe at 5 months

Proves there are bull

ers down there as well as over here…

Anymulewilldo · Sep 28, 2021

Northeastfarmer said:
I will put my neck on the block and say Hoggs will be a decent trade next spring
£130-£140

I’d agree with that. I can’t see them going vastly higher like this last spring. Be nice, but I can’t see it happening

livestock 1 · Sep 28, 2021

neilo said:
I don’t think they’ll be £80, but I don’t think they’ll be up to this Spring’s prices either.

The big retailers are all putting store lambs out with contracted finishers, so won’t be held to ransom again. They are reportedly struggling to buy stores cheap enough in any number though.
HCC are reporting kill numbers down 10% recently, when we normally see a glut. Those lambs will have to come out later, so they’re unlikely to be as short as this Spring.

Too many people expecting a repeat for it to happen?

I think it’s a difficult one to call and if I did it would only be a guess
Kill numbers could be wrong they have been before and at the moment the ‘crack’ im hearing is contradictory to the kill numbers being down
@neilo you must be in a difficult position where you predicted it wrongly last year when the job looked up and now you are looking into this year which as you say is possibly not expected to be quite as good! What the hell should you do?
I don’t know I did think although I intend to feed hoggs that this year would have a sting somewhere in the tail but I feel a bit more confident that it will likely be possible interruption now and again temporarily due to current issues rather than a general bad price
I’ve spoken to a few feeders and the general consensus of thought is stores are dear but looking back over the last fourteen months or so all stores have looked dear but not many have been bought too dear if you follow my drift
After saying that the belt usually comes off at some point
I don’t hear of any contract finishing up here it would be interesting what price you have been quoted if you don’t mind that is?
Would £5.40 be enough to get folks excited? Probably not it would need to be more but they wouldn’t offer £6 as they would rather take a chance? So it’s likely to be within that 60p range pretty boring compared to sitting wondering for a few months!!
I don’t know many or any finishers who would rather play safe to be honest I think they would rather take it on the chin now and again to hit the jackpot when it comes around
Store lambs have been a reasonable trade early on I think because some buyers were caught out last year with Brexit talk and I feel they have got in earlier this time which has altered the trade.
I think stores will get dearer up here although steadily from now on as roots and keep become available and southern men head north for sheep
After that who knows

neilo · Sep 28, 2021

livestock 1 said:
I think it’s a difficult one to call and if I did it would only be a guess
Kill numbers could be wrong they have been before and at the moment the ‘crack’ im hearing is contradictory to the kill numbers being down
@neilo you must be in a difficult position where you predicted it wrongly last year when the job looked up and now you are looking into this year which as you say is possibly not expected to be quite as good! What the hell should you do?
I don’t know I did think although I intend to feed hoggs that this year would have a sting somewhere in the tail but I feel a bit more confident that it will likely be possible interruption now and again temporarily due to current issues rather than a general bad price
I’ve spoken to a few feeders and the general consensus of thought is stores are dear but looking back over the last fourteen months or so all stores have looked dear but not many have been bought too dear if you follow my drift
After saying that the belt usually comes off at some point
I don’t hear of any contract finishing up here it would be interesting what price you have been quoted if you don’t mind that is?
Would £5.40 be enough to get folks excited? Probably not it would need to be more but they wouldn’t offer £6 as they would rather take a chance? So it’s likely to be within that 60p range pretty boring compared to sitting wondering for a few months!!
I don’t know many or any finishers who would rather play safe to be honest I think they would rather take it on the chin now and again to hit the jackpot when it comes around
Store lambs have been a reasonable trade early on I think because some buyers were caught out last year with Brexit talk and I feel they have got in earlier this time which has altered the trade.
I think stores will get dearer up here although steadily from now on as roots and keep become available and southern men head north for sheep
After that who knows

I don't think I made any wild predictions last year to get wrong. I remember posting that things could have gone t*ts up spectacularly IF we had a no-deal Brexit, which we avoided, thankfully. We certainly wouldn't have seen this April's prices with exports constrained, it sure as hell wasn't domestic trade driving it.

The contract finishing I was referring to is the retailers buying the store lambs themselves, then sending them to finishing farms for wintering. Much like B&B pigs, the finishers are paid so much/hd/week, with no risk of capital laid out. I don't know the rates offered, but I do know they are offering bonuses if you can hold them for later in the Spring. They don't intend being caught short again, and won't be in the market for volume come March/April/May.
I saw a farm in mid-Wales a few nights ago, who had loads of Waitrose store lambs on temporarily, before being shipped to cover crops in East Anglia for wintering. Whether they are normally lamb finishers over there, or the arable guys that are finding cover crops all the rage again?

Personally, I'm carrying on as normal. Everything finished before Christmas will be sold, all the smallies are on tight feed already, to hold cheaply until April. I'm willing to bet plenty will be keeping store lambs that don't normally though, expecting to see a repeat of last year. Do you ever see 2 'bonanza' years on the trot?

Anymulewilldo · Sep 28, 2021

neilo said:
I don't think I made any wild predictions last year to get wrong. I remember posting that things could have gone t*ts up spectacularly IF we had a no-deal Brexit, which we avoided, thankfully. We certainly wouldn't have seen this April's prices with exports constrained, it sure as hell wasn't domestic trade driving it.

The contract finishing I was referring to is the retailers buying the store lambs themselves, then sending them to finishing farms for wintering. Much like B&B pigs, the finishers are paid so much/hd/week, with no risk of capital laid out. I don't know the rates offered, but I do know they are offering bonuses if you can hold them for later in the Spring. They don't intend being caught short again, and won't be in the market for volume come March/April/May.
I saw a farm in mid-Wales a few nights ago, who had loads of Waitrose store lambs on temporarily, before being shipped to cover crops in East Anglia for wintering. Whether they are normally lamb finishers over there, or the arable guys that are finding cover crops all the rage again?

Personally, I'm carrying on as normal. Everything finished before Christmas will be sold, all the smallies are on tight feed already, to hold cheaply until April. I'm willing to bet plenty will be keeping store lambs that don't normally though, expecting to see a repeat of last year. Do you ever see 2 'bonanza' years on the trot?

I have heard from friends that the Tesco ABP contracts aren’t being signed quite so readily after last year… so maybe they are having too do the same to guarantee supply? Don’t know, but I’m finding it hilarious that those “holier than thou” sorts who scoffed at me for sticking with the open market and not signing up are reverting too my way (the old way) now!

Optimus · Sep 28, 2021

Anymulewilldo said:
Ahhh, now I haven’t seen the numbers for that yet. Numbers have certainly been well up at the Marts I use. wether that means there are more about or people are selling faster this year I don’t know. I was talking too a BIG livestock haulage man the other week and he was saying how many thousand more lambs than normal had come south of the border from Scotland for the time of year.

Could be folk selling stores instead of fat.was speaking to a lad whos been selling stores for the first time.

Anymulewilldo · Sep 28, 2021

Optimus said:
Could be folk selling stores instead of fat.was speaking to a lad whos been selling stores for the first time.

I know one of my mates has sold 2000 lambs as stores than he would normally finish himself. Still got 1800 left for spring but he said it seemed daft too refuse £80 odd straight off the ewe

neilo · Sep 28, 2021

Anymulewilldo said:
I have heard from friends that the Tesco ABP contracts aren’t being signed quite so readily after last year… so maybe they are having too do the same to guarantee supply? Don’t know, but I’m finding it hilarious that those “holier than thou” sorts who scoffed at me for sticking with the open market and not signing up are reverting too my way (the old way) now!

Lots of people weren't offered new Tesco contracts this Spring, after reneging on their (100%) supply commitments last year. Of those that were offered them, a small number chose not to sign them, even with the 100% commitment requirement removed. Where Tesco's supply might be currently, I wouldn't like to post on a public forum.

Most of those I know of that aren't sending them on that contract now, are still sending them dw though, rather than the 'old way'.

That's only one supermarket contract model of course, with only around 200 producers on it nationwide. Plenty on Waitrose contracts locally that seem happy enough, which I believe pays a premium over sqq.

lloyd · Sep 28, 2021

Good news Neilo ,Tesco shares have gone up 12% in
the last 6 months.

Perhaps those lamb contracts have done them well.

neilo · Sep 28, 2021

lloyd said:
Good news Neilo ,Tesco shares have gone up 12% in
the last 6 months.
Perhaps those lamb contracts have done them well.

I somehow doubt the number of lambs they are getting on contract are making much difference to their profits. They will be buying most of their supply outwith the producer group currently, so paying the current market price, like any other retailer.

I suspect the share price rise is down to @delilah investing heavily.

Mc115reed · Sep 28, 2021

lloyd said:
Good news Neilo ,Tesco shares have gone up 12% in
the last 6 months.
Perhaps those lamb contracts have done them well.

Probably due too them putting fuel prices up 10pence a litre and the latest influx of idiots

livestock 1 · Sep 28, 2021

neilo said:
I don't think I made any wild predictions last year to get wrong. I remember posting that things could have gone t*ts up spectacularly IF we had a no-deal Brexit, which we avoided, thankfully. We certainly wouldn't have seen this April's prices with exports constrained, it sure as hell wasn't domestic trade driving it.

The contract finishing I was referring to is the retailers buying the store lambs themselves, then sending them to finishing farms for wintering. Much like B&B pigs, the finishers are paid so much/hd/week, with no risk of capital laid out. I don't know the rates offered, but I do know they are offering bonuses if you can hold them for later in the Spring. They don't intend being caught short again, and won't be in the market for volume come March/April/May.
I saw a farm in mid-Wales a few nights ago, who had loads of Waitrose store lambs on temporarily, before being shipped to cover crops in East Anglia for wintering. Whether they are normally lamb finishers over there, or the arable guys that are finding cover crops all the rage again?

Personally, I'm carrying on as normal. Everything finished before Christmas will be sold, all the smallies are on tight feed already, to hold cheaply until April. I'm willing to bet plenty will be keeping store lambs that don't normally though, expecting to see a repeat of last year. Do you ever see 2 'bonanza' years on the trot?

Ha I was only being sarcastic! I’m sure if it had gone the other way you would have possibly reminded me by now.
I haven’t seen ‘bonanza’ prices consecutive years but were these prices actually bonanza or just maybe where they needed to be?
Store lambs were pretty dear later on and feed wasn’t cheap it was a bloody bad winter for us maybe we need prices somewhere near there unless we are going into feeding big four figure lots of sheep or more.
These retailers seem to be pretty keen to be taking on feeding sheep?
It would appear that they are taking supply seriously and it gives me a bit of confidence in the fact they are doing this.
I have been told that there’s dairy farmers going back into sheep this backend who have been in and out of it like a yo-yo over the years and as you say add the arable boys and a few extras it will be surprising what’s to come back through.
Definitely interesting times

Hfd Cattle · Sep 28, 2021

Hilly said:
Some places in Scotland have had drought and shifted lot of lambs early etc , I’m lead to believe not many store lambs about right down south either .

That's cos GUTH has bought them all cos he says they gonna be £130 next April . .....he's a good man standing by his predictions

Humble Village Farmer · Sep 28, 2021

livestock 1 said:
Ha I was only being sarcastic! I’m sure if it had gone the other way you would have possibly reminded me by now.
I haven’t seen ‘bonanza’ prices consecutive years but were these prices actually bonanza or just maybe where they needed to be?
Store lambs were pretty dear later on and feed wasn’t cheap it was a bloody bad winter for us maybe we need prices somewhere near there unless we are going into feeding big four figure lots of sheep or more.
These retailers seem to be pretty keen to be taking on feeding sheep?
It would appear that they are taking supply seriously and it gives me a bit of confidence in the fact they are doing this.
I have been told that there’s dairy farmers going back into sheep this backend who have been in and out of it like a yo-yo over the years and as you say add the arable boys and a few extras it will be surprising what’s to come back through.
Definitely interesting times

I don't like the idea of the supermarkets taking control of production. Look at the pig and poultry markets, there's no competition anywhere and oversupply to keep the price down.

I wouldn't be so averse to being paid an option at the market price without deductions. It's still supping with the devil though.

lloyd · Sep 28, 2021

Hfd Cattle said:
That's cos GUTH has bought them all cos he says they gonna be £130 next April . .....he's a good man standing by his predictions

Did he go up north and buy them out of Gisburn on your advice?

Anymulewilldo · Sep 28, 2021

lloyd said:
Did he go up north and buy them out of Gisburn on your advice?

Gisburn isnt “up north”…

it’s a very half hearted attempt if that’s as far as you get…

lloyd · Sep 28, 2021

Anymulewilldo said:
Gisburn isnt “up north”… it’s a very half hearted attempt if that’s as far as you get…

Its north for me.

2 miles south west of the North Yorkshire border.

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