Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker

[Hfd Cattle]

Did he go up north and buy them out of Gisburn on your advice?

GUTH doesn't seem to respond to my advice ......I can't think why

 

[Hfd Cattle]

Gisburn isnt “up north”… it’s a very half hearted attempt if that’s as far as you get…

It's the other side of Worcester that's a long way up north as far as I'm concerned

 

[Anymulewilldo]

It's the other side of Worcester that's a long way up north as far as I'm concerned

A few years ago I’d have agreed that Lancashire was the North. Nowadays I’m just getting comfortable in the car when I go through Lancashire!

 

[cattleman123]

Don’t worry! I’m doing the same! I’ve a lot more feeding sheep here than this time last year!

It never pans out as folk think....anything could happen

 

[gone up the hill]

That's cos GUTH has bought them all cos he says they gonna be £130 next April . .....he's a good man standing by his predictions

Sheep will be a very good trade next spring!

Old season lambs do not intrest me after the end of Dec, by then i have moved onto other things!

But if you have plenty of winter grass untill March/ April and ideally seeds grass then these small store lambs will grow into Money!

But hey why not carry on being a total bellend HFD cattle and try and score points against other TFF users like you love doing, very sad really.

 

[livestock 1]

Sheep will be a very good trade next spring!

Old season lambs do not intrest me after the end of Dec, by then i have moved onto other things!

But if you have plenty of winter grass untill March/ April and ideally seeds grass then these small store lambs will grow into Money!

But hey why not carry on being a total bellend HFD cattle and try and score points against other TFF users like you love doing, very sad really.

Wow friction and I never said a word

 

[gone up the hill]

Increasing numbers of stores will be getting sold privately, especially those being put away quietly by the retailers, so I wouldn't use numbers at store sales as any particular gauge tbh.

As I posted above, HCC (the Welsh AHDB) are reporting killing numbers being down 10% currently. We all know census numbers for lambs on farm are usually nonsense, but kill numbers are pretty accurate, and no reason to think there was a particularly disastrous lambing nationally this year?

I can't remember the figures, but I don't think kill numbers through the summer have been much higher than normal, and a 10% drop at the time of the peak glut is pretty seismic.
Maybe more are being retained for breeding, rather than filling those mule breeder's pockets? That certainly won't account for 10% though.

I expect lamb price to stay OK, but without the massive uplift that we saw this Spring. If you can get £100+ for them now, without incurring a wintering cost, crack on imo.

What was the lambing and survival rate this spring on hill farms compared to last year?

Surprising done here just how many very poor lambs are coming off Dartmoor this autumn when you would think with the summer grass growth we have had they would have done better than normal but seems not to be the case this year.

 

[z.man]

On the other hand they could be worth £80 next March. We can all have a cry together then.
It’s happened before! Just not involving quite this much money!!

You’ll still be ok at £80 next March

 

[JSmith]

I know, bit harsh GUTHRIE, especially as your always quick to jump on people, having a bad day? Want to talk about it!!

 

[Celt83]

But hey why not carry on being a total bellend HFD cattle and try and score points against other TFF users like you love doing, very sad really.

All this love, why don't you two just get a room!

 

[z.man]

Lambs a good bit sharper at Cally in Stirling today maybe £5-£8 up

 

[gone up the hill]

All this love, why don't you two just get a room!

I know, bit harsh GUTHRIE, especially as your always quick to jump on people, having a bad day? Want to talk about it!!

I have no time for trolls like HFD, all very well disagreeing with someone as that is what a forum is about but trolling like HFD does is very sad and pathetic and if HFD cannot understand that then its also very sad!

 

[Hfd Cattle]

All this love, why don't you two just get a room!

I don't think he would like my hairy chin

 

[LAMBCHOPS]

I don't think I made any wild predictions last year to get wrong. I remember posting that things could have gone t*ts up spectacularly IF we had a no-deal Brexit, which we avoided, thankfully. We certainly wouldn't have seen this April's prices with exports constrained, it sure as hell wasn't domestic trade driving it.

The contract finishing I was referring to is the retailers buying the store lambs themselves, then sending them to finishing farms for wintering. Much like B&B pigs, the finishers are paid so much/hd/week, with no risk of capital laid out. I don't know the rates offered, but I do know they are offering bonuses if you can hold them for later in the Spring. They don't intend being caught short again, and won't be in the market for volume come March/April/May.
I saw a farm in mid-Wales a few nights ago, who had loads of Waitrose store lambs on temporarily, before being shipped to cover crops in East Anglia for wintering. Whether they are normally lamb finishers over there, or the arable guys that are finding cover crops all the rage again?

Personally, I'm carrying on as normal. Everything finished before Christmas will be sold, all the smallies are on tight feed already, to hold cheaply until April. I'm willing to bet plenty will be keeping store lambs that don't normally though, expecting to see a repeat of last year. Do you ever see 2 'bonanza' years o

I think it’s a difficult one to call and if I did it would only be a guess
Kill numbers could be wrong they have been before and at the moment the ‘crack’ im hearing is contradictory to the kill numbers being down
@neilo you must be in a difficult position where you predicted it wrongly last year when the job looked up and now you are looking into this year which as you say is possibly not expected to be quite as good! What the hell should you do?
I don’t know I did think although I intend to feed hoggs that this year would have a sting somewhere in the tail but I feel a bit more confident that it will likely be possible interruption now and again temporarily due to current issues rather than a general bad price
I’ve spoken to a few feeders and the general consensus of thought is stores are dear but looking back over the last fourteen months or so all stores have looked dear but not many have been bought too dear if you follow my drift
After saying that the belt usually comes off at some point
I don’t hear of any contract finishing up here it would be interesting what price you have been quoted if you don’t mind that is?
Would £5.40 be enough to get folks excited? Probably not it would need to be more but they wouldn’t offer £6 as they would rather take a chance? So it’s likely to be within that 60p range pretty boring compared to sitting wondering for a few months!!
I don’t know many or any finishers who would rather play safe to be honest I think they would rather take it on the chin now and again to hit the jackpot when it comes around
Store lambs have been a reasonable trade early on I think because some buyers were caught out last year with Brexit talk and I feel they have got in earlier this time which has altered the trade.
I think stores will get dearer up here although steadily from now on as roots and keep become available and southern men head north for sheep
After that who knows

what % of the store la mb numbers are tied up with contracts ? .never heard of it around here. What would retailers know about buying sheep. Interested to know how all this could work?

 

[Anymulewilldo]

You’ll still be ok at £80 next March

Shhhhh!!!!! Big mouth!!

 

[z.man]

Shhhhh!!!!! Big mouth!!

Will keep not be for nowt soon “golden hoof “ effect v price of fert

 

[Anymulewilldo]

Will keep not be for nowt soon “golden hoof “ effect v price of fert

Thankfully I’ve only had one keep man double his rate. And he’s the one who tries it on every couple of years. What would have gone too him have already gone elsewhere. I’m enjoying the fact he thinks I can’t possibly manage without his wintering.

 

[neilo]

what % of the store la mb numbers are tied up with contracts ? .never heard of it around here. What would retailers know about buying sheep. Interested to know how all this could work?

I've no idea on the numbers, but they had agents buying store lambs locally on similar arrangements back in January. Plenty of livestock fieldsmen about working for the processors, who would be involved in the slaughter at the other end. I understand that they are just expanding those arrangements.

I guess we will find out next Spring, as to how successful they have been in moderating the price, but they were certainly effective at it when done by buying in lambs from NZ at opportune moments.

 

[neilo]

What was the lambing and survival rate this spring on hill farms compared to last year?

Surprising done here just how many very poor lambs are coming off Dartmoor this autumn when you would think with the summer grass growth we have had they would have done better than normal but seems not to be the case this year.

You do realise that lambs are produced outside the South West too?

I haven't heard any particular horror stories from lambing time, as usually do the rounds pretty quickly. I would venture most found lambing, and the preceding winter, not fantastic, but also not disastrous. Anyone hold a differing view?

I hear lots of stories from farmers round here about how the lambs have done better this summer, as they always do in a dry time, when grass is tighter/shorter. Those in the grim North haven't had such a dismal, wet time of it as usual either.

 

[jendan]

what % of the store la mb numbers are tied up with contracts ? .never heard of it around here. What would retailers know about buying sheep. Interested to know how all this could work?

Ive never heard of it either. They would probably be able to get agents to buy the lambs,and then get them hauled to feeding farms,but surely they would want x pence per head per week.Even if the buy in price is £70 now,they will be fair money by next April you would think.................Unless they can find idiots that will feed and shepherd them for next to nowt. No doubt some twerp will come on and say they have contracted to take 10,000 on,at a guaranteed £20/head uplift.................provided they hit the spec/you pay the haulage both ways/cover the losses, etc, etc. They will probably charge you the interest on £700,000 for 6 months as well.