Will Putin invade ?

Crofter64 · Mar 1, 2022

Crofter64 said:
When the Soviet Union collapsed Russia no longer wanted to foot the bill for the satelite countries as they had done for 70 years. They let them go. Ukraine was the only one with a caveat : give us back our nuclear weapons and remain unaligned (1994 Budapest agreement).

I think it is very much western interference which has given Ukraine false encouragement , knowing about but ignoring the terms of that agreement.There was no way on earth that Russia wouldn’t act on any move Westwards by Ukraine , and everyone always knew it, but went ahead anyway.
What does that tell us?

It tells me that they wanted this to happen.

( as an aside. At school some boys built a box with an alarm in it, with a button on the outside which said : do not push this button, and placed it on the master’s desk. Well he did push it and as there was no way to turn it off it was a lot of fun.
Ukraine had such a button on it, according to the Budapest agreement, and the West has pushed it.

Crofter64 · Mar 1, 2022

JohnGalway said:
I'm sure there's something in that bible book about not firing cruise missiles at your neighbours civilian areas on a pretense of absolute lies........ but I may be misquoting it slightly.

You are absolutely right.

Now what?

Countries begin in the hearts of its citizens and your heart is now filled with hate and rage. That ain’t gonna solve this problem ( or any other)

TheTallGuy · Mar 1, 2022

Crofter64 said:
When the Soviet Union collapsed Russia no longer wanted to foot the bill for the satelite countries as they had done for 70 years. They let them go. Ukraine was the only one with a caveat : give us back our nuclear weapons and remain unaligned (1994 Budapest agreement).

I think it is very much western interference which has given Ukraine false encouragement , knowing about but ignoring the terms of that agreement.There was no way on earth that Russia wouldn’t act on any move Westwards by Ukraine , and everyone always knew it, but went ahead anyway.
What does that tell us?

The 1994 agreement didn't require non-alignment

BrianV · Mar 1, 2022

dogandstick said:
We are where we are, so no use iffing and buting. The question is where do we go from here.

As far as I can see there is no where to go, NATO & more importantly the US have said under no circumstances will they intervene so they are effectively on their own!

JohnGalway · Mar 1, 2022

Crofter64 said:
You are absolutely right.

Now what?

Countries begin in the hearts of its citizens and your heart is now filled with hate and rage. That ain’t gonna solve this problem ( or any other)

Firstly ask me a question rather than assume and look silly. My heart is full of determination and sadness.

Secondly I have updated my view slightly since first posting on this subject.

The best Russian soldier in Ukraine is the one shooting at his comrades/sabotaging his vehicle/f**king off home/surrendering.

The second best Russian soldier in Ukraine is a dead one.

We get to a beginning of a resolution to this when either dictator vlads orc hordes are defeated, rebel against Putinism, or the dictator is removed from power.

He must and will fail in Ukraine, he's a malignant cancer on humanity.

will l · Mar 1, 2022

Danllan said:
As others have written, once you're off the roads it is pretty poor going in a lot of places there. I've no doubt this has been exasperated by Ukrainians redirecting water courses and, of course, they know every inch of the place.

Hopefully as others have said theyve led them down single track roads blown the bridge in front, and are now blowing the bridges behind, Home advantage

BrianV · Mar 1, 2022

matthew said:
“call his bluff ….. NATO moving forces to the West’s border with Ukraine”

Nato forces have been camped in eastern Poland for years. frequenting my daughter’s hotel and bar.

Just a thought: if Ukraine had surrendered on day 1 and Putin colonised the country, his avowed horror of having a NATO member on his border would be a reality, would it not? In fact he’d have quite a few members as neighbours.

True but as soon as NATO & the US said they would not intervene they gave him the green light to go, after marching his soldiers to the top of the hill he had to come back home with something whether agreement or country or else!

BrianV · Mar 1, 2022

Tubbylew said:
They are an independent sovereign nation, and have been since 1991. They are fighting to maintain that freedom from an agressor who belives that they should not have been granted their freedom in 1991. They are not members of NATO, so NATO cannot intervene, and NATO is an entirely defensive organisation and so will not intervene unless a member state is attacked directly. The only way for another country (who respects the rule of international law) to intervene with troops on the ground is for a vote to be passed at the UN security council, which (as a founding member) Russia would veto. The Ukrainians really don't have the option of not fighting, and we who have enjoyed freedoms (by default of where we live) have a duty to support them as best we can, and hope to god the Ukrainians win. Because if they don't then the fight will be coming to us. The west have become concieted and fatuous, forgetting that the freedom and democracy that is taken for granted, has been paid for by the blood of more than a few of our ancestors, in the recent past all the way back to the romans. Unless it is all just a conspiracy on the internet, in which case I'll shut up.

We are not talking about some tin pot army invading, Russia is totally ruthless & will stop at nothing to succeed, then what?
NATO had to make a choice to make & they blinked first, whether they intervened under the NATO banner or as a collection of concerned countries is immaterial the fact is they did nothing & Russia will emerge stronger for it.

Crofter64 · Mar 1, 2022

TheTallGuy said:
The 1994 agreement didn't require non-alignment

Russia understood this 1st and 3rd principle of the Memorandum to include foreign meddling ( alignment in their eyes) and tempting it to join them.
1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

Certainly Russia has now breached the second principle, but in their eyes( right or wrong) that is only as a result of their understanding that the US and Western Europe had already broken the first one:
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations

Kevtherev · Mar 1, 2022

Putin still has a gripe with Poland according to some sources and it’s to do with Poland’s claim that the former Soviet Union caused WW2 with its pact with Germany at that time in history.

beardface · Mar 1, 2022

BrianV said:
True but as soon as NATO & the US said they would not intervene they gave him the green light to go, after marching his soldiers to the top of the hill he had to come back home with something whether agreement or country or else!

Gave him more than a green light. We removed all western troops and emptied the embassies, right when he had Ukraine encircled. May aswell have rolled out the red carpet and cracked open the champagne for him. NATO leaders basically gave him the middle finger and had complete disregard for any of Russias security concerns. So much for diplomacy ey. I hope the western leaders are happy to have the blood of Ukranians all over their hands too. What a f**ked up world we live in when a country like America practically begged him to invade. And now we are where we are. People are dying and warmongers want to turn a war between 2 countries, that still has room for dialogue and diplomacy, into a war between multiple countries. As if covid hadn't caused enough grief.

The Seeker · Mar 1, 2022

looks like the 40 km of tanks are just waiting for the massive air strike before they drive into Kiev …

beardface · Mar 1, 2022

The Seeker said:
looks like the 40 km of tanks are just waiting for the massive air strike before they drive into Kiev …

Hopefully. Would make the potential talks tomorrow alot more productive.

Scots_Knight · Mar 1, 2022

BrianV said:
True but as soon as NATO & the US said they would not intervene they gave him the green light to go, after marching his soldiers to the top of the hill he had to come back home with something whether agreement or country or else!

But he and Russia definitely absolutely weren't going to invade, just war games you know, absolutely nothing to do with invasion.

That was just the West's and MSM nasty spin on their nice playing soldiers next door !!!

I'ts not as if there's massive convoys of tanks and artillery heading for Kyiv is there.......

Oh wait a minute, oh bugger

NATO is defensive and can't go into a non member also Russia would of had a field day saying how right they were and what danger it is !!!!

All just an excuse to expand, remake old Soviet Union, joining here or the WRI would have done just as well.

Bury the Trash · Mar 1, 2022

Crofter64 said:
You are absolutely right.

Now what?

Countries begin in the hearts of its citizens and your heart is now filled with hate and rage. That ain’t gonna solve this problem ( or any other)

anger yes but not hate you got that bit wrong . there's a big difference .

TheTallGuy · Mar 1, 2022

Crofter64 said:
Russia understood this 1st and 3rd principle of the Memorandum to include foreign meddling ( alignment in their eyes) and tempting it to join them.
1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

Certainly Russia has now breached the second principle, but in their eyes( right or wrong) that is only as a result of their understanding that the US and Western Europe had already broken the first one:
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations

That's all a load of ballcocks that Russia used to justify its actions by utilising creative interpretation - otherwise they would have presented evidence to the UN long before sponsoring the rebel forces.

BrianV · Mar 1, 2022

beardface said:
Gave him more than a green light. We removed all western troops and emptied the embassies, right when he had Ukraine encircled. May aswell have rolled out the red carpet and cracked open the champagne for him. NATO leaders basically gave him the middle finger and had complete disregard for any of Russias security concerns. So much for diplomacy ey. I hope the western leaders are happy to have the blood of Ukranians all over their hands too. What a f**ked up world we live in when a country like America practically begged him to invade. And now we are where we are. People are dying and warmongers want to turn a war between 2 countries, that still has room for dialogue and diplomacy, into a war between multiple countries. As if covid hadn't caused enough grief.

Endless sympathy, the EU could have fast tracked Ukraines application to join immediately & intervened but many EU countries don't want them so it won't happen, an alliance of EU countries the UK plus the USA could have intervened but they won't, instead they all just stand back give token assistance & watch it all happen, all of them wishing it wasn't being seen on our TV screens!

Ashtree · Mar 1, 2022

Russia needs it’s own Von Stauffenberg. This time to actually succeed in killing the barsteward at the top.

Jackov Altraids · Mar 1, 2022

BrianV said:
The idea would have been to call his bluff before he went into Ukraine by Nato quickly moving forces to the West's border with Ukraine, superior western airpower with tank destroying ability would quickly have made him step back, we have seen the long queues of Putins armoury trundling along Ukraines roads, do you really think they would do that with tank busting aircraft above?

I happen to think it's really positive that you and a few others are making this thread have a proper discussion about the events but,

I do now think you have gone full circle.

You started off blaming this conflict on the west for provoking Russia with things like posting troops near its borders .....
and now it's the 'West's' fault for not doing that.

beardface · Mar 1, 2022

BrianV said:
Endless sympathy, the EU could have fast tracked Ukraines application to join immediately & intervened but many EU countries don't want them so it won't happen, an alliance of EU countries the UK plus the USA could have intervened but they won't, instead they all just stand back give token assistance & watch it all happen, all of them wishing it wasn't being seen on our TV screens!

Best form of warfare I guess. Use someone else's troops.

Will Putin invade ?

Will Putin invade the Ukraine ?

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