Milk Price Tracker

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
How reliable is the data, and what difference does it make to the farmer? They basically drew a forecast line which follows last years production and production looks to be starting off below forecast and last years level. Now I'm no expert, but with meal hitting £400 a ton and fert at £750- £1000 depending on what day of the week it is, I could probably have predicted that. Really goes to show how little these 'industry experts' know.
the only people that really know how much milk, is going to be produced, is the people producing, we know how good/bad our fodder supplies are, how much fert we can buy/use, how we might change our system, etc, but no body ever asks us. Its all guess work, educated guess work.
To us, its obvious production is going to drop, not only here, but across the globe, fert is pretty well a global price, even a 5% drop, will have a big effect, Ukraine will further reduce stocks, chuck in a weather event, in the main corn belts, and panic stations. We know food availability is tight, if it wasn't, the nearly decent prices for cull, and prime stock, would be much lower, its called competition, a new word, for s/mkts perhaps ?
 

frederick

Member
Location
south west
the only people that really know how much milk, is going to be produced, is the people producing, we know how good/bad our fodder supplies are, how much fert we can buy/use, how we might change our system, etc, but no body ever asks us. Its all guess work, educated guess work.
To us, its obvious production is going to drop, not only here, but across the globe, fert is pretty well a global price, even a 5% drop, will have a big effect, Ukraine will further reduce stocks, chuck in a weather event, in the main corn belts, and panic stations. We know food availability is tight, if it wasn't, the nearly decent prices for cull, and prime stock, would be much lower, its called competition, a new word, for s/mkts perhaps ?
That's unfortunately simply not true.
Asking farmers how much milk they will produce has proven to be the worst way of predicting milk intake .
Running models with some of the factors you mention is far more accurate.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
i
That's unfortunately simply not true.
Asking farmers how much milk they will produce has proven to be the worst way of predicting milk intake .
Running models with some of the factors you mention is far more accurate.
in other words, its simple guess work, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, weather, hard luck, disease or simply less production, for any number of reasons, but farmers will know before the processors. Most of us have to submit a forecast, 12 months, with 3 monthly updates, fair enough, but its all done on predicted yields, any number of things could upset it, and probably do, the farmer is always the first to know.
 

Sid

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
South Molton
Screenshot_20220419-173600_GDT.jpg
 

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