Combinables Price Tracker

teslacoils

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Thank you, I believe options normally get cheaper nearer to the time the option expires?

I never hear much about them now, they used to be very popular 20 years ago.
Function of price, volatility, interest rate and duration. Or something like that. So Nov 22 is now closer, and volatility has reduced in percentage terms.
 
Since 2008 options have been much higher cost due to the volatility
Before then a couple of £ at most
Some option paid out £100 and since then the option sellers had to cover their risks better
If you took one out in July 2021 for may 22 it would have paid out £160 or more if closed out since the war started
 
how many have you already committed to pools for selling harv 22 crops. I have taken 40% as I always do, as an insurance and trade the rest on spot prices. Wished I hadnt know as I expect a fair % of the JFM 23 pools are already sold
 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
there have been plenty of post of predictions of a price fall on here in the last 2 months
some of even sold at sub 300

the only safe option as a farmer is to sit and wait till the grain is in the shed and the dust has settled
concentrate on growing this years crop and planning for next years

those with cash to spare to cover margin calls can trade futures
more fortunes have been lost than made trading on the futures

only gamble what you can lose
I know it won't happen this year, but marketing is equally as important as growing the stuff. Anyone who hasn't got any sold forward at these current high prices, is as much of a gambler as the man who commits 4t/acre.
 

4course

Member
Location
north yorks
I know it won't happen this year, but marketing is equally as important as growing the stuff. Anyone who hasn't got any sold forward at these current high prices, is as much of a gambler as the man who commits 4t/acre.
I used to do annual with quartely reviews budgeting then this last few years moved into monthly now its weekly or with the pressure/help from the t,internet putin and drought its almost daily mindst ive still nothing sold forward other than a couple of load on a pool which is likely to be less than spot but im working on the theory that the fert is paid for , and the rest is as its always been up to me
 

Jerry

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Devon
I have a seed crop of Skyfall in the ground that’s looking well.

The merchant is wanting to fix a price but I’m saying no no at present.

It will be movement at harvest or soon after to allow them to process it.

But if a dilemma now….🤷‍♂️
 

4course

Member
Location
north yorks
I have a seed crop of Skyfall in the ground that’s looking well.

The merchant is wanting to fix a price but I’m saying no no at present.

It will be movement at harvest or soon after to allow them to process it.

But if a dilemma now….🤷‍♂️
£45 over november wheat as a minimum!! youve paid extra for your seed probably gone or going to go an extra fungicide then youve foregone any milling premium and any barn busting variety yield ,even at 45 its not brilliant
 

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