Milk Price Tracker

lazy farmer · Jan 6, 2023

Looking at the figures it’s unlikely my milk price will fall below 2022s equivalent until June
Which for 2023 as a whole makes things look a lot rosier.

Sid · Jan 6, 2023

lazy farmer said:
Looking at the figures it’s unlikely my milk price will fall below 2022s equivalent until June
Which for 2023 as a whole makes things look a lot rosier.

Big difference to price coming down and being able to cut your cloth accordingly than inputs rising faster than outputs in cash flow terms!

Martyn · Jan 6, 2023

Sid said:
Niche, same as Darts farm shop would be heaving the same with those that have moved down with money and work the new full time Tuesday to Thursday online.

Plenty of farming stock in there enjoying the food, several familiar faces

lazy farmer · Jan 6, 2023

Sid said:
Big difference to price coming down and being able to cut your cloth accordingly than inputs rising faster than outputs in cash flow terms!

What are these costs that continue to rise
?
Fert down
Wheat/ feed down ( for the spring)
Fuel down (therefore contract down)
There the big ones on this farm.

Will Blackburn · Jan 6, 2023

Labour?

Sid · Jan 6, 2023

lazy farmer said:
What are these costs that continue to rise
?
Fert down
Wheat/ feed down ( for the spring)
Fuel down (therefore contract down)
There the big ones on this farm.

Your milk price last year wasn't keeping up with rising costs. Hard on cash flow, speculate to accumulate

Roll forward 12 months and milk proce has caught up, its easing but so are inputs , easier to manage.

pappuller · Jan 6, 2023

lazy farmer said:
Looking at the figures it’s unlikely my milk price will fall below 2022s equivalent until June
Which for 2023 as a whole makes things look a lot rosier.

So you may look at a comparable milk price for 22 and 23 ????

lazy farmer · Jan 6, 2023

Sid said:
Your milk price last year wasn't keeping up with rising costs. Hard on cash flow, speculate to accumulate

Roll forward 12 months and milk proce has caught up, its easing but so are inputs , easier to manage.

Income up 14p
Costs up 8.5p

lazy farmer · Jan 6, 2023

pappuller said:
So you may look at a comparable milk price for 22 and 23 ????

How knows!!!!
My current guess would be down 5p avg

dinderleat · Jan 6, 2023

lazy farmer said:
How knows!!!!
My current guess would be down 5p avg

I think it will be 2/3 years for all cost increases to filter through. Of which we could see a couple more peaks and troughs in the milk price.

lazy farmer · Jan 6, 2023

Will Blackburn said:
Labour?

Here we are running with less labour but a bit more seasonal at the busy times so actually spent less this yr even though we put remaining staff up more than inflation.

Sid · Jan 6, 2023

lazy farmer said:
Income up 14p
Costs up 8.5p

Income wasn't up 14p at the start. Fert was up.
Cashflow

frederick · Jan 6, 2023

Sid said:
Income wasn't up 14p at the start. Fert was up.
Cashflow

You just said milk price last year didn't keep up with rising costs.
Lazy has been able to demonstrate that last year his milk price increased considerably more than his costs did for the twelve month period.

On a what's app we shared together two days ago my last 12 months demonstrated more or less exactly the same story as lazy.

What may be correct is that costs stabilise or a bit more filters through and milk price will fall. If that gap narrows by more than 5.5ppl then we will be in worse territory than 2021.

Sid · Jan 6, 2023

frederick said:
You just said milk price last year didn't keep up with rising costs.
Lazy has been able to demonstrate that last year his milk price increased considerably more than his costs did for the twelve month period.

On a what's app we shared together two days ago my last 12 months demonstrated more or less exactly the same story as lazy.

What may be correct is that costs stabilise or a bit more filters through and milk price will fall. If that gap narrows by more than 5.5ppl then we will be in worse territory than 2021.

I don't doubt over the 12 months, the point I was making that the cost rose faster than the income, that is harder to deal with in cash flow terms. Milk price dropping, along side some costs dropping allows a greater amount of flexibility and planning.

The longer the period the easier it looks on paper to manage

dinderleat · Jan 6, 2023

Sid said:
I don't doubt over the 12 months, the point I was making that the cost rose faster than the income, that is harder to deal with in cash flow terms. Milk price dropping, along side some costs dropping allows a greater amount of flexibility and planning.

The longer the period the easier it looks on paper to manage

That’s where fixed contracts for inputs come in, we’ve certainly had a healthy cash flow this year so would disagree with your point.

lazy farmer · Jan 6, 2023

Sid said:
I don't doubt over the 12 months, the point I was making that the cost rose faster than the income, that is harder to deal with in cash flow terms. Milk price dropping, along side some costs dropping allows a greater amount of flexibility and planning.

The longer the period the easier it looks on paper to manage

There’s logic in there somewhere.

Sid · Jan 6, 2023

lazy farmer said:
There’s logic in there somewhere.

There is, milk price was playing catch upon way up, and costs are easing its playing catch up again.
Sweet spot was from September to January?

frederick · Jan 6, 2023

Sid said:
There is, milk price was playing catch upon way up, and costs are easing its playing catch up again.
Sweet spot was from September to January?

Still going to disagree for a lot of farmers.
I'm not the only one that had the bulk of my fert already bought. My electricity was ok until November.
My feed price didn't go too wrong until september.

However what I won't disagree with is that a lot of these prices are already pencilled in for this year at record highs and it currently looks extremely likely that the milk price wont remain high enough for long enough to make this year a good year.

lazy farmer · Jan 6, 2023

frederick said:
Still going to disagree for a lot of farmers.
I'm not the only one that had the bulk of my fert already bought. My electricity was ok until November.
My feed price didn't go too wrong until september.

However what I won't disagree with is that a lot of these prices are already pencilled in for this year at record highs and it currently looks extremely likely that the milk price wont remain high enough for long enough to make this year a good year.

Your right but who knows how many people were in the same situation.
Our electric was capped
Our feed was bought forward (though this was negated by the drought)
Our fert was bought forward ( though next yrs is in the shed )
Our labour was lower.
Inflation never got ahead of us.
as for this yr the potential is still there for a good first half so let’s do our best and enjoy the ride.

In the pit · Jan 6, 2023

lazy farmer said:
Your right but who knows how many people were in the same situation.
Our electric was capped
Our feed was bought forward (though this was negated by the drought)
Our fert was bought forward ( though next yrs is in the shed )
Our labour was lower.
Inflation never got ahead of us.
as for this yr the potential is still there for a good first half so let’s do our best and enjoy the ride.

Probaly because others are organic which is a niche market ,and his costs and milk price were further apart

Milk Price Tracker

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

0 %

Up to 25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-100%

100% I’ve had enough of farming!

Share this page