Where’s UK food production headed?

Clive · Jun 20, 2023

robs1 said:
UK food is not expensive compared to most comparable countries, yes we have costs that some others don't have but a friend from NZ was telling me some of the rules they have to deal with too, what makes it hard for UK farming to compete is overhead costs IE land and that is the same for every business whether it's shops or manufacturers, we are a small rich country with lots of people chasing land either for farming or development, add in government/ public sector overheads like rates etc and everything we buy is expensive.
It wasn't long ago that several posters on here we saying land would be £20,000 an acre and saying farmers should leverage their assets to get bigger, how it has changed, the grain we produce is a by product to the straw and has been for many years, occasionally like last year the corn makes good money but the price has slumped, the straw we sell will be going up again this year as will the hay etc we sell, perhaps others like you are beginning to realise that food production isn't appreciated at the moment and will stop, the trouble is I fear there are many who will take up the slack, too many of us are busy idiots ( meant in a nice way) . Only when the shops are empty will things change and that might be by legislative force rather than price improvement

land is 20k per acre around here (I juts had to sell 9ac of compulsory purchase)

the value of land has nothing to do with the viability of food production whatsoever.

given inflation and its devaluing of debt buying land would have been a great move when it was being recommended on here by some. even if you borrowed money at the time, the 3-4% fixed rate would mean inflation alone was buying you the asset over the last 2 years

I REALLY fear for the livestock industry especially diary - if you start reading up on about "precision fermentation" If what I was reading is true and becomes commercial reality i just can't see dairy existing 10yrs from now ........ scary times

som farmer · Jun 20, 2023

Hilly said:
Definitely, just like everything the government touch ! Turns to sh!t , they have ruined agriculture with their blooy subsidy’s, never should have been accepted by farmers in the first place .

subs were a system used by guvs, to keep food cheaper for the consumer, they compensated the farmer for 'extra' cost of production v price.

A very simple process that worked reasonably simply/well.

then the EU and civil servants, it then turned into a bloated complicated heap of bullshite, that is completely the opposite, of its original aim.

At the beginning of subs, food mattered, it was short, today, it isn't, tomorrow, it might be.

Muddyroads · Jun 20, 2023

Clive said:
It's not expensive BECAUSE imports competition keeps a lid on those prices - we all know that to be sustainably viable without subsidies that UK food prices would have to be MUCH higher

Agreed, but how does this square with your earlier comment that reduced UK production will lead to higher prices for the remaining growers?

Farmer Roy · Jun 20, 2023

Clive said:
- we all know that to be sustainably viable without subsidies that UK food prices would have to be MUCH higher

or ( & I know this is easy to say & is controversial, but - it doesnt hurt to look critically at your own operation from time to time , a bit of navel gazing if you like ), you have to lower your cost of production . . .

yes, yes I know

everyone is on a treadmill of expenditure they cant get off . . .

but, as an outsider & casual observer, it seems every farming ( livestock or arable ) post on TFF is about maximum yield, maximum production, apply more product, spend more money. Even on "drought" threads there are questions about applying more fertiliser or planting hybrid wheat seed, all about spending MORE money. That is not how you manage drought ( not just "real" drought, but dry periods in general ) in my limited experience. You tighten your belt. Watch your spending. Limit your risk. No one ever seems to ask how to manage drought by limiting spending or reducing ones risk / exposure . . .

as i said earlier, the focus always seems to be on "cheap food" & maximum production to "feed the world"
No - the focus should be on maximum profit & minimum risk. The highest yielding crop ( or beast ) isnt necessarily the most profitable.
But, I suppose because of your subsidies & payments ( which did take some of the risk out of the job & provided a bit of a safety net ) & this push for maximum productivity, this seems to be lost on many people

in my time farming, the crops that have been the most profitable, $$$ / ha, for me, have always been low input ones

andybk · Jun 20, 2023

Farmer Roy said:
or ( & I know this is easy to say & is controversial, but - it doesnt hurt to look critically at your own operation from time to time , a bit of navel gazing if you like ), you have to lower your cost of production . . .

Yes thats fine if your not shackled with high animal/crop welfare ,nature luvvies and a bureaucratic government department just itching to trip you up . remove all that and we can compete with anywhere
add to that imports that come in with minimal regulation , you might be p55sed off !

som farmer · Jun 20, 2023

Farmer Roy said:
or ( & I know this is easy to say & is controversial, but - it doesnt hurt to look critically at your own operation from time to time , a bit of navel gazing if you like ), you have to lower your cost of production . . .

yes, yes I know

everyone is on a treadmill of expenditure they cant get off . . .

but, as an outsider & casual observer, it seems every farming ( livestock or arable ) post on TFF is about maximum yield, maximum production, apply more product, spend more money. Even on "drought" threads there are questions about applying more fertiliser or planting hybrid wheat seed, all about spending MORE money. That is not how you manage drought ( not just "real" drought, but dry periods in general ) in my limited experience. You tighten your belt. Watch your spending. Limit your risk. No one ever seems to ask how to manage drought by limiting spending or reducing ones risk / exposure . . .

as i said earlier, the focus always seems to be on "cheap food" & maximum production to "feed the world"
No - the focus should be on maximum profit & minimum risk. The highest yielding crop ( or beast ) isnt necessarily the most profitable.
But, I suppose because of your subsidies & payments ( which did take some of the risk out of the job & provided a bit of a safety net ) & this push for maximum productivity, this seems to be lost on many people

in my time farming, the crops that have been the most profitable, $$$ / ha, for me, have always been low input ones

farmers need to accept they are in a drought first.

then they have to realise throwing money, eg fert, at a crop in the hope, 'it might work', is a waste of money.

in arid area's, crop yields are dictated by two things only, fertility of soil, and amount of moisture.
viability of fert, is directly linked to moisture.

and the thinking, 'it's got to be better next year', can prove to be extremely expensive.

@Farmer Roy is absolutely correct, if yield is challenged, by drought, there is absolutely nothing you can do, to increase it, all you can do, is prepare for it, by lowering your COP.

It's lowering your COP, and accepting lower yields, that the majority of farmers here, don't seem to 'get'.
And the fact that many are stuck on, and driven by, the hamster wheel.

Next year might be better, there again it might not be, that is the gamble we take.

Farmer Roy · Jun 20, 2023

andybk said:
Yes thats fine if your not shackled with high animal/crop welfare ,nature luvvies and a bureaucratic government department just itching to trip you up . remove all that and we can compete with anywhere
add to that imports that come in with minimal regulation , you might be p55sed off !

always easy to blame others . . .

as for "imports that come in with minimum regulation", i think youll find thats not correct ?
If it IS, then your Govt has a LOT to answer for

as as grower in a country that is EXPORT focused & as a grower who the majority of my produce is EXPORTED, I will have to say that EVERYTHING we export ( to a number of countries ) HAS to meet the standards & specifications of the country we export to.

crop chemicals which are approved here, cant be used on canola exported to the EU, for example

cattle HGP, while approved here, cannot be used on beef to the EU or Japanese markets, for example, but is fine for the US market where it is approved

basically, as an exporter, we HAVE to follow the rules, standards & specifications of our CUSTOMERS

andybk · Jun 20, 2023

Farmer Roy said:
always easy to blame others . . .

as for "imports that come in with minimum regulation", i think youll find thats not correct ?
If it IS, then your Govt has a LOT to answer for

think the arable boys will put you right , they can only sell red tractor to mills , yet same buyers are buying imports , grown with chems that are banned here ,
someone from your side of the world put up what they had to do to export sheep meat here and it was a simple self declaration form , yet RT here want to know the last time the dog farted .

som farmer · Jun 20, 2023

andybk said:
Yes thats fine if your not shackled with high animal/crop welfare ,nature luvvies and a bureaucratic government department just itching to trip you up . remove all that and we can compete with anywhere
add to that imports that come in with minimal regulation , you might be p55sed off !

but we are saddled with all that crap, and we are peed off with it.

what has that got to do with lowering your COP ? It's a fact of life, we have to cope with, makes lowering your COP harder.

If the output doesn't cover the input costs, something has to change, sale price, is something we cannot really influence, to many external factors beyond our control. The only thing we can have some control over, COP.

Northern territory · Jun 20, 2023

som farmer said:
but we are saddled with all that crap, and we are peed off with it.

what has that got to do with lowering your COP ? It's a fact of life, we have to cope with, makes lowering your COP harder.

If the output doesn't cover the input costs, something has to change, sale price, is something we cannot really influence, to many external factors beyond our control. The only thing we can have some control over, COP.

Fact is we can never compete with Australian beef COP simply because of economies of scale. Is someone on 200 acre going to have the same COP as 100 square miles. Even if you didn’t spray, fertilise, worm and everything else you still have insurance, wages, electric, water, drainage rates, accountants fees, fuel, tax etc.

unlacedgecko · Jun 20, 2023

suffolksmallholder said:
Yes we feed them. Yes it is difficult to not be swayed by NF the daily wail and other nay sayers but we are humans too. Compassion, and understanding is paramount and I for one would and do support them.
You have the absolute luxury of a job, a farm and if you inherit then you will be in that tiny and very wealthy minority and who happen to live in a country not torn apart be war, persecution and dictatorship.

Listen to the voices who aren’t spouting hate, you’ll be a better person!
SS

No thanks.

Illegal immigration (or invading) should be a capital crime.

Farmer Roy · Jun 20, 2023

andybk said:
think the arable boys will put you right , they can only sell red tractor to mills , yet same buyers are buying imports , grown with chems that are banned here ,
someone from your side of the world put up what they had to do to export sheep meat here and it was a simple self declaration form , yet RT here want to know the last time the dog farted .

mmm, thats not the problem or concern of countries exporting, its up to the country that is IMPORTING, ie the CUSTOMER, to set their specifications and standards, just like your supermarkets do to your products

if your standards allow what you say, then that is a failing of your Government AND your agricultural lobbyists, spokesmen & industry groups

som farmer · Jun 20, 2023

Northern territory said:
Fact is we can never compete with Australian beef COP simply because of economies of scale. Is someone on 200 acre going to have the same COP as 100 square miles. Even if you didn’t spray, fertilise, worm and everything else you still have insurance, wages, electric, water, drainage rates, accountants fees, fuel, tax etc.

Totally agree with all that.

But it doesn't alter the fact, if input costs, are greater than output, you are in the deep and murky.

To avoid getting into that position, you have to ensure inputs don't exceed output.

I fully accept that it is very difficult to do, and some will be unable to do it, but if we are forced to compete on the global market, without subs, what choice do we have ?

As frequently said on many threads on here, it doesn't seem todays politicians want farmers, and with all the crap we are saddled with, as you rightly pointed out, it would appear its true.

Times, and things will change, its making sure you are still there to exploit them.

Iben · Jun 20, 2023

Farmer Roy said:
then that is a failing of your Government AND your agricultural lobbyists, spokesmen & industry groups

Is that not what this thread is about?

lloyd · Jun 20, 2023

Clive said:
imports are cheap

uk food is expensive

Beef and lamb have been more expensive abroad
that is why we haven't been flooded out with cheap red meat imports yet!
Uk grain is traded on world prices where is this bargain food abroad?

Iben · Jun 20, 2023

The other big disadvantage we have in this country is lack of land mass compared to other exporting countries.

Most of us could lower our cop if we farmed several thousand acres each, with large 600+ acre fields. A land mass that made it worthwhile for contractors to harvest/drill from one side of the country to the other over several months, rather than here where harvest is over in six weeks from bottom of country to top.

Northern territory · Jun 20, 2023

som farmer said:
Totally agree with all that.

But it doesn't alter the fact, if input costs, are greater than output, you are in the deep and murky.

To avoid getting into that position, you have to ensure inputs don't exceed output.

I fully accept that it is very difficult to do, and some will be unable to do it, but if we are forced to compete on the global market, without subs, what choice do we have ?

As frequently said on many threads on here, it doesn't seem todays politicians want farmers, and with all the crap we are saddled with, as you rightly pointed out, it would appear its true.

Times, and things will change, its making sure you are still there to exploit them.

But fixed costs can’t be controlled quite the same, I fully accept input costs can be and have to be reduced. Same old things though what hurts output and farm profit the most.

som farmer · Jun 20, 2023

Northern territory said:
But fixed costs can’t be controlled quite the same, I fully accept input costs can be and have to be reduced. Same old things though what hurts output and farm profit the most.

fixed or variable costs, they all feed into COP.

l accept it could be extremely difficult, for some impossible, but we are looking at survival mode, guv is making things very difficult for farming, with new regs, and an assumption they can import what they need.

Some really hard choices will have to be made, each business is different, but a deep searching appraisal will never hurt any business, even if it isn't good news.

If farmers cut back on inputs, there is a huge industry that lives off selling us, those inputs, they may well drop prices.

It all comes back to basics, output has to exceed inputs. How you get there, and stay there, is up to you.

unlacedgecko · Jun 20, 2023

Iben said:
The other big disadvantage we have in this country is lack of land mass compared to other exporting countries.

Most of us could lower our cop if we farmed several thousand acres each, with large 600+ acre fields. A land mass that made it worthwhile for contractors to harvest/drill from one side of the country to the other over several months, rather than here where harvest is over in six weeks from bottom of country to top.

UK and NZ have similar land mass.

However, UK has over 4x as many farmers. So to be comparable, the industry needs to rationalise and 75% of current farmers need to retire, or otherwise exit.

Farmer Roy · Jun 20, 2023

andybk said:
think the arable boys will put you right , they can only sell red tractor to mills , yet same buyers are buying imports , grown with chems that are banned here ,
someone from your side of the world put up what they had to do to export sheep meat here and it was a simple self declaration form , yet RT here want to know the last time the dog farted .

t

unlacedgecko said:
UK and NZ have similar land mass.

View attachment 1119687 View attachment 1119688 View attachment 1119689
However, UK has over 4x as many farmers. So to be comparable, the industry needs to rationalise and 75% of current farmers need to retire, or otherwise exit.

the thing ive found about TFF, its always easier to find excuses or blame someone else . . .

Where’s UK food production headed?

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0 %

Up to 25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-100%

100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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