Where’s UK food production headed?

The Seeker said:

Well I’m in the prime of my life , I should be excited to farm, to take things on it’s not a big set up but it’s manageable but for the last year I wake up EVERY night around 3am wondering Why bother why put my neck on the line for everything all the greif and stresss ,,,, lots of stress everyone wanting to tell you all the things you should be doing all the time ( like I’m some idiot ) no, graze like this, feed ewes like that ? Vets plan , soil samples , on an on and on all with associated cost that no one talks about We have diversications and tbh it’s chalk n cheese money wise but WHAT ARE WE ALL GOING TO EAT??

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Farmers will always be able to eat
Farmers have the means and the knowledge to grow their own food

I think it’ll be the rest of the population who will have a problem in the future

Sort yourself an Acre of potatoes turnip cabbage cauli carrots etc

id start preparing and planting fruit and nut trees and digging the pond right now

Orchard full of apples plums black currants rhubarb etc
Cow or goat to milk
Few chickens
Pig to fatten
Rabbits and the odd deer?
Dig a pond and fill it with trout

etc

You do not have to change, survival is not compulsory!
In all the years I have been farming, the chat has always been, Not a good time to be farming ! Some have been very successful, some have failed.
Farming will carry on, some will prosper, some will fail.
Its the way of all business !!

Clive said:

depends on your point of view I guess - its clearly the preference of our government and tax payer so who are we to argue ?

imports are cheaper and better for (OUR as in UK's ) environment it seems ........ pass the buck

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imports are also better for our (the UKs) Carbon ledger, when we grow food the Carbon costs are accounted for by UK PLC, when we buy food grown somewhere else, the Carbon is counted against them, not us, so it helps us achieve net zero. Does it help the world reach net zero, no, but no politician can virtue signal about the world reaching net zero, only their little patch reaching it.

Clive said:

land is 20k per acre around here (I juts had to sell 9ac of compulsory purchase)

the value of land has nothing to do with the viability of food production whatsoever.

given inflation and its devaluing of debt buying land would have been a great move when it was being recommended on here by some. even if you borrowed money at the time, the 3-4% fixed rate would mean inflation alone was buying you the asset over the last 2 years

I REALLY fear for the livestock industry especially diary - if you start reading up on about "precision fermentation" If what I was reading is true and becomes commercial reality i just can't see dairy existing 10yrs from now ........ scary times

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The average of farmland isn't £20,000 but that's not the point it's too dear to make money from farming it as you have said many times owning land is an investment and separate from farming it. BUT unless you get given it, have roll over money or bought it and have finished paying for it you have to spread that cost over everything you sell, the same as buying mega machines or paying a lot of labour it all adds to the unit cost. History shows us time and time again those with the lowest cost base are the ones that survive, this time we are competing against foreign farmers too

Farmer Roy said:

or ( & I know this is easy to say & is controversial, but - it doesnt hurt to look critically at your own operation from time to time , a bit of navel gazing if you like ), you have to lower your cost of production . . .







yes, yes I know







everyone is on a treadmill of expenditure they cant get off . . .












but, as an outsider & casual observer, it seems every farming ( livestock or arable ) post on TFF is about maximum yield, maximum production, apply more product, spend more money. Even on "drought" threads there are questions about applying more fertiliser or planting hybrid wheat seed, all about spending MORE money. That is not how you manage drought ( not just "real" drought, but dry periods in general ) in my limited experience. You tighten your belt. Watch your spending. Limit your risk. No one ever seems to ask how to manage drought by limiting spending or reducing ones risk / exposure . . .











as i said earlier, the focus always seems to be on "cheap food" & maximum production to "feed the world"
No - the focus should be on maximum profit & minimum risk. The highest yielding crop ( or beast ) isnt necessarily the most profitable.
But, I suppose because of your subsidies & payments ( which did take some of the risk out of the job & provided a bit of a safety net ) & this push for maximum productivity, this seems to be lost on many people







in my time farming, the crops that have been the most profitable, $$$ / ha, for me, have always been low input ones

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As a principle, I'm in general agreement with you.
The argument often given against this here is land costs. High land values are interpreted as requiring high output farming.
What would your land value be relative to yield potential? Rent or purchase cost?

curlietailz said:

Farmers will always be able to eat
Farmers have the means and the knowledge to grow their own food

I think it’ll be the rest of the population who will have a problem in the future

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Their problem will soon become your problem. Hungry (and angry) people are going to do all they can to feed themselves, so you'd better stock up on .223 if you intend to keep your pig, goat, cow, and orchard.

Northern territory said:

Very true this. Was talking to a guy yesterday who sells his own meat, chicken, pork, beef etc. has a slaughterhouse just down the road. People bringing them from two hours away as that is the most local non major to them. This guy says there was 3 slaughtering 3 cutting up and 12 plus pen pushers, vets etc. how can that be right.

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Sounds right to me. I drove into our local, since closed, s/h and drew Dad's attention to the fact that the car park held 4 saloons all less than 3 years old and 2 ex gas board vans considerably older. Going in we found 2 slaughtermen hard at work and 4 in white coats watching. To be honest I found it demoralising thinking about this being repeated all over the country in all sorts of situations. I can't imagine how resentful these workers felt being watched over like that. Now of course we have cctv to contend with as well.

Muddyroads said:

Agreed, but how does this square with your earlier comment that reduced UK production will lead to higher prices for the remaining growers?

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If big producing countries have cheaper costs of production it keeps a lid on global prices, as they can supply plentiful volumes at low cost, yet still make a profit, so keep producing all they can.

Most things we sell are commodities which are traded globally. Hence global price affects our prices. Certainly true for grain, and on the whole true for meat. Even dairy, which as a fresh product with short shelf life, so not easy to send fresh product abroad and change local prices...... is influenced by skim milk powder prices.

Thinking grain, our prices totally follow global trade prices. However, UK prices are then adjusted depending if we are have excess supply here in our home market, or if we are short of grain. Essentially if we're a net importer or net exporter.

If all grain farmers go 50% stewardship then we'll be a net importer, and we'll see prices rise £60/t, yet that £60 swing is based on the world price of that commodity. If world wheat price is £200 and we're exporting then we get ex farm price of £170. Net importer and we'll be looking at ex farm price of £230.

^^^however, if that £60/t over global prices makes our livestock industry uncompetitive, and we have a contraction in livestock numbers, maybe demand reduces and that £60 evaporates. CS/SFI could cause us to have less grain and less livestock produced.

I hope the government know what they're doing. They're playing with fire imho.

Farmer Roy said:

always easy to blame others . . .





as for "imports that come in with minimum regulation", i think youll find thats not correct ?
If it IS, then your Govt has a LOT to answer for




as as grower in a country that is EXPORT focused & as a grower who the majority of my produce is EXPORTED, I will have to say that EVERYTHING we export ( to a number of countries ) HAS to meet the standards & specifications of the country we export to.

crop chemicals which are approved here, cant be used on canola exported to the EU, for example

cattle HGP, while approved here, cannot be used on beef to the EU or Japanese markets, for example, but is fine for the US market where it is approved

basically, as an exporter, we HAVE to follow the rules, standards & specifications of our CUSTOMERS

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Farmer Roy said:

mmm, thats not the problem or concern of countries exporting, its up to the country that is IMPORTING, ie the CUSTOMER, to set their specifications and standards, just like your supermarkets do to your products

if your standards allow what you say, then that is a failing of your Government AND your agricultural lobbyists, spokesmen & industry groups

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If a country produces 500,000t of canola, only using pesticides licenced in the EU, that in itself isn't the issue.

The issue is the other 18 million tonnes grown using neonics which is our problem, as it's all swimming about on the world market, and affects world the price.

Grass And Grain said:

The issue is the other 18 million tonnes grown using neonics which is our problem, as it's all swimming about on the world market, and affects world the price.

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That the mills have access to !

DaveGrohl said:

Christ Alive, wtf do those 12 DO all day?

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Nothing but add cost.

Ffermer Bach said:

imports are also better for our (the UKs) Carbon ledger, when we grow food the Carbon costs are accounted for by UK PLC, when we buy food grown somewhere else, the Carbon is counted against them, not us, so it helps us achieve net zero. Does it help the world reach net zero, no, but no politician can virtue signal about the world reaching net zero, only their little patch reaching it.

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This is the basis of your ag policy and nfu and the likes are assisting.

Ant...

unlacedgecko said:

UK and NZ have similar land mass.

View attachment 1119687View attachment 1119688View attachment 1119689
However, UK has over 4x as many farmers. So to be comparable, the industry needs to rationalise and 75% of current farmers need to retire, or otherwise exit.

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I got the impression that @Iben was referring to Aus not Enzid?

Iben said:

Out of interest. What is your government's policy on food production and the environment? How much do they interfere with what you would like to do via legislation? Do they have any environmental incentives?

As for producing food at lowest price, hence profitability. You have a second job alongside your farming. Is this because the farm doesn't produce sufficient profit to live on? I really appreciate you suffered severe drought for a few years, did the government help you through that period, or did they not value their farmers either?

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Poorbuthappy said:

As a principle, I'm in general agreement with you.
The argument often given against this here is land costs. High land values are interpreted as requiring high output farming.
What would your land value be relative to yield potential? Rent or purchase cost?

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hi, there are some pretty big concepts & answers amongst all that ( some may know that I like to give detailed answers ), so I will reply, but when I get a chance to answer properly
Thanks

unlacedgecko said:

UK and NZ have similar land mass.

View attachment 1119687View attachment 1119688View attachment 1119689
However, UK has over 4x as many farmers. So to be comparable, the industry needs to rationalise and 75% of current farmers need to retire, or otherwise exit.

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the harsh truth is, not everyone will survive.

that’s not necessarily good or bad, it’s just what it is

I think you’ll find the actual number of farms / farmers has declined remarkably since WW2, in all the major Ag producing / exporting countries in the world.

Just because some chemicals are banned in the UK doesn’t mean that they aren’t fully approved in the country using them

IF products are being bought / imported into the UK that use chemicals that are banned in the UK, then it is up to UK authorities to test & police UK standards & legislation. It is also up to UK farm industry groups to lobby UK government to ensure this happens. I don’t see the point of complaining about what others do, rather the focus should be on your own import restrictions.

I can guarantee that as a grower, who grows commodities primarily for an export market, we can only use inputs that are approved for that particular market. As in my comment about canola for the EU. I can also guarantee that regular, random sampling of commodities for standards, varieties, specifications & MRL levels, along with compulsory statutory vendor declarations, does happen. Both at the domestic buyer level & at the export customer end.

I fully agree that grain imported into the UK for example, should meet the same specs / standards as local, but as for expecting the whole world to be on a “level playing field”, that is a bit naive
That has never happened & will never happen. If you were an export orientated industry, you would VERY soon realise there is no such thing as a level playing field.

Surprisingly, Red Tractor doesn’t exist in the largest agricultural producing countries in the world ?
So, for someone exporting mung beans from Australia to Bangladesh, or durum from Canada to Egypt, it is completely irrelevant. All that matters is the standards of the two countries involved . . .


for the life of me, I cannot understand how the UK agricultural industries have allowed themselves to be so impotent under Red Tractor & have given up so much control.

all of our commodities / farm products, are fully tested by the buyers, within the framework of using inputs that are fully approved for their use & any government imposed environmental restrictions or legislation.
What more is required ?

Are we not missing something here. New Zealand population 5 million. Uk population 67 million and growing.