2024 lamb crop, how will it all turn out?

[Jockers84]

I think most will agree that last winter was pretty hard on sheep, and overall the grass growth this spring is well behind where it should be. Thankfully the sheep trade has remained buoyant with tight numbers, and overall the feed bills haven’t been so high due to carry over from good yields the last few years.
However what are folks predictions and plans for this year? Will there be significantly less lambs about boosting store demands after a poor lambing? Will lower numbers and higher demand offset the lower quality from the poor grazing start we’re seeing? Will feed supplies be depleted enough by the long winter to make fertiliser use and having a few bales to sell worth the initial outlay? Although the last is very area specific. Will the soaring hogg trade be there to justify keeping the long keep easy fleshing shapey lambs right through the winter and cashing the larger less winter hardy types earlier?
Questions we’re all no doubt considering and trying to hedge our bets on returning the maximum profit, so what are folks thoughts on how it will play out?

 

[Jockers84]

Bump

 

[Mc115reed]

In my opinion trade will dip as usual going into July/august… probably too around the £2.80-3kg mark… stores will be silly money probably more than fat because more and more people want too be store lamb finishers and don’t want too lamb sheep… next year feed prices will be through the roof due too a bad harvest this year… less sheep will be lambed because nobody wants too lamb sheep and replacement shearling costs got too silly so a lot didn’t buy them… meaning next years lamb crop will be a small one where we see high lamb prices all year

 

[edn]

It’s impossible to say for sure.
I can see stores being a very high price but this years lambing will have made many consider whether to keep running as many breeding sheep. You’ve also got to consider the global picture and whether import/export trade will alter significantly.

 

[spin cycle]

few boats of antipodean could change everything

many of us lambing ewes are no better off for high prices cos we've less to sell

if lamb price dips to much I won't put tups in again

 

[muleman]

The better prices havnt really reached the ones that need it most, the more commercial hill type farmer.....its been reserved for the beltex men and the Hogg finisher... .if trade doesn't hold to give everyone a taste a lot will give up/be forced out.

 

[Woolless]

In my opinion trade will dip as usual going into July/august… probably too around the £2.80-3kg mark… stores will be silly money probably more than fat because more and more people want too be store lamb finishers and don’t want too lamb sheep… next year feed prices will be through the roof due too a bad harvest this year… less sheep will be lambed because nobody wants too lamb sheep and replacement shearling costs got too silly so a lot didn’t buy them… meaning next years lamb crop will be a small one where we see high lamb prices all year

It's been my theory for a while that store lamb prices should be strong as less folk want to lamb ewes. Last year was the first time I really thought it was borne out. Hopefully the same this year!

 

[Mc115reed]

The better prices havnt really reached the ones that need it most, the more commercial hill type farmer.....its been reserved for the beltex men and the Hogg finisher... .if trade doesn't hold to give everyone a taste a lot will give up/be forced out.

Everyone keeps saying to me “f**king hell you must be a happy man atm the way the lamb trade is…” … and I keep saying “I’d be happy if I had any too sell or had sold any in the last 2-3 months yes ”

 

[Downtrodden Dad]

I’ve definitely got less lambs left due to the weather, compared with this time last year, whatever the price we get will not make up for how I’ve felt all spring. I am also starting to get annoyed with everybody telling me how good lamb prices are, I’m sure they are, but I haven’t sold any since last November so unfortunately not a huge help to me at all.

 

[Aspiring Peasants]

Going to lamb less next year, combination of

1. Getting on a bit
2. Weather
3. Need new buildings
4. Way farmers are being treated by the powers that be
5. SFI
6. The disruption from a road scheme
7. No next generation interested
8. Cost of inputs


Will reduce work load by reducing continental ewe numbers and replacing with mules lambed outside and accept some years they will take a hit due to the weather. Will run more hoggs round to this time of year to finish off grass. That isn’t a reaction to this year’s trade, have done some for years. They were good last year as well.

May buy more hoggs with lambs at foot depending on price and/or store lambs, will probably have some silage to sell, will still keep cows and probably keep calves longer to eat the grass in the summer. Will put land into herbal leys and other bits of SFI

 

[Jonp]

Small scale breeding flock (140 ewes) lambed relatively easily from the end of February and gave me a good crop of lambs. Challenge this year has been the weather and I think I was lightly brushed by SMV giving me a cruel start to lambing and more than usual runty lambs. 95% of the lambs growing well and if I avoid last years mistakes/ mismanagement of parasite control I should make a better profit this year.
As with others, not really sold anything since last year so haven't benefited from this years prices (except a few culls).
Will not be entering any subs schemes and will carry on with present numbers, breeding more of my own replacements to further reduce flock age.

 

[britt]

Only a small flock lambing from mid April outside.
I've had far too many singles this time, which I put down to the atrocious weather at and just after tupping.
I've heard others complain of fit ewes with little milk, blamed on poor grass quality from lack of spring sunshine, and others hit by SMV.
I think lamb numbers will be down thus time.

 

[LAMBCHOPS]

Schmallenberg will see a shift away from.early lambing ,yearings will be off the clock think many flocks will be sold up to take advantage of good price !(age of farmers another issue with not so many youngsters coming in).Be a big contraction of numbers being bred and stores will be dear. Don't see much profit in the store lambs as margin will be slim and more farmers if they can will keep hogg lambs round to spring.. We have had a reset upwards in prices, finished lambs won't fall much below 3 pound a kilo as store price will underpin the fat.

 

[britt]

I think the big unknown in the longer term will be the rise of "nomadic" flock taking advantage of farms using SFI options.

 

[soapsud]

It's been my theory for a while that store lamb prices should be strong as less folk want to lamb ewes. Last year was the first time I really thought it was borne out. Hopefully the same this year!

Makes sense as supply-demand dictates price. The tipping point will come long after we've retired here. Then the corporate gloop protein shakes will no doubt dominate the market .

Meantime the unusual weather patterns (not climate change per se), wars, oil price affecting shipping costs, and the other usual adverse factors affecting global supply routes will make prices rise and fall as they always have.

Our neighbours way down here go to the north country breeding auctions every year. Some are grumbling that they'll be less on offer and that means higher prices.

 

[soapsud]

Don't see much profit in the store lambs as margin

... particularly if less feed grown/available here due to this bad winter/SFI.
What are the chances of a market price rise on the back of these spring prices for sheep input costs this autumn?

 

[puppet]

Best scanning ever then a challenging outdoor lambing early April but losses no more than other years though took a lot of work. This year has shown not to be worried about later lambs and triplets slow to grow as they made the most money in Feb/March. Selling store lambs at £75 in order to keep more ewes over winter when with £5 of cake the same lambs made £160 4 months later doesn't make sense.
We get at least 1200mm rain yet the idea of housing ewes in January would scare me so luckily we can rent some fields for 6 weeks to spread them about.
The grass is jumping now so will make as much home-grown forage as possible

 

[Jackov Altraids]

I think the big unknown in the longer term will be the rise of "nomadic" flock taking advantage of farms using SFI options.

How do they winter sheep when all the options seem to make that impossible?

 

[JockCroft]

Bump

Bump as much as you wan't. From the few I have spoken too, they don't want to speak about this lambing.

See the post I put up on the "Confessions" page. That would sicken anyone.

Usually every one wanted to tell all their lambing problems. This year?

Personally this year, way to many singles, with the resultant big lamb slow lambing losses. Quite a few twins loosing one lamb at 3 > 5 days.
Know what's marked and tailed at 2 days and would predict 10 to 15% down on previous years. Most of the lambs on the ground look to be doing well but grass getting very tight.

Although partly due to new AECS, we will be dropping ewe numbers by 20% next season.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

It has been a very hard lambing season.
I'm sure most peoples % will be less than usual and that this will somewhat negated by higher prices.
I can't see anything other than a reduction in the national flock in the near future.
This could reduce the processing capability of the UK.
I certainly think there will be more 'none kill' days at the big outfits.