News
Staff Member
Expect another two billion people in the next 40 years. In the Western World life expectancy is increasing by 2 years per decade, or half of those born this year will live to be 100 years old. It also means a city the size of Birmingham needs building every three and a half weeks. That is a lot more mouths.
Land available for food production has decreased by a third over the last 40 years, the greatest threats now are biofuels and carbon sinks. Urban sprawl accounts for less than 2% of land use loss, but is permanent. In the next 40 years we will need to produce the equivalent amount of food the world has produced over the last two and a half centuries. That means intensification.
Two bogies have plagued farming; inflation of farm inputs and the increasing affordability of food as retailers lower prices for greater market share. The squeeze on farm profitability has hit producers worldwide since WW2.
Over the last two years a price shift has occurred as processors through to retailers scurry to secure supply due to world food demand. But will this be the saviour of UK sheep farming as we know it? I say no, because farm incomes will need to increase by input inflation year on year which is usually driven by other sectors of industry and that precludes any further deterioration in the Eurozone and shift in world trade balance towards the East. The big question is; how can farmers retain an appropriate share of value?
· Lower compliance costs? Don’t bank on any Government doing that.
· Increase subsidies? The European crisis will affect the next decade.
· Increase farmer ownership of value chains? Too late for the UK.
· Convince consumers to pay more? Yeah right.
· Change management and genetics to lower costs and raise productivity annually? The only realistic option, as farmers can only change what is inside the farm gate.
Each farmer should form a strategy to maintain profit as their suppliers and outlets will want their share as product prices track upwards due to world demand. Remember that farmers are price takers, buying retail, selling wholesale and paying the freight both ways.
In following blogs I will discuss the innovation which proved effective for NZ pastoral farmers to survive and prosper when overnight all seemed doomed to financial collapse. Many of these changes are relevant to the slow squeeze being put on UK pastoral farmers especially in the threat of subsidy review.
About the author Murray Rohloff:
@Global ovine
Sheep genetics and management consultant
Eight years at Invermay Agricultural Research Centre in sheep reproduction physiology (prolific flock management, breed comparisons and lamb survival studies).
Twenty five years as a leading progressive ram breeder. Awareka rams mated over half a million commercial ewes annually. Many Awareka sires have featured as trait leaders on SILACE. An instigator of Sheep Improvement Ltd. (industry owned national sheep recording facility) and instigator and leading breeder for host resistance to internal parasites. The Awareka flock was sold in 2008 and has since won the most awards for maternal breeds in the NZ Sheep Industry Awards under its new ownership since their inception in 2012.
Increased involvement in strategic and business planning of farming and restructuring of veterinary businesses since 2002. During this time numerous visits to the UK and Ireland on instructional and speaking engagements organised by Teagasc, DARNI, SAC, Eblex, HCC and Suffolk Breed Society. Part of the set-up team for Sheep Ireland in 2008.
During the last 15 years have held ongoing science and advisory roles to AgResearch Ltd. (crown owned research provider) and Ovita Ltd. (research funding provider). Instigator and former chair of FT200, an industry owned sheep production and financial benchmarking provider.
Evaluated novel genetics for out-of-season lambing, especially 3 lambings in 2 years. The original importer of Charollais and Ile de France sheep breeds, now farmed in Otago under joint ventures. Chair of Charollais breed society.
A joint venture owner of EasyRams UK based near Ellesmere.
Specialist field is strategic planning of agricultural businesses to be more profitable through appropriate structures, goals, genetics and management.
Currently is a part time farmer with 350 Ile de France ewes on irrigated pasture in Central Otago.
Land available for food production has decreased by a third over the last 40 years, the greatest threats now are biofuels and carbon sinks. Urban sprawl accounts for less than 2% of land use loss, but is permanent. In the next 40 years we will need to produce the equivalent amount of food the world has produced over the last two and a half centuries. That means intensification.
Two bogies have plagued farming; inflation of farm inputs and the increasing affordability of food as retailers lower prices for greater market share. The squeeze on farm profitability has hit producers worldwide since WW2.
Over the last two years a price shift has occurred as processors through to retailers scurry to secure supply due to world food demand. But will this be the saviour of UK sheep farming as we know it? I say no, because farm incomes will need to increase by input inflation year on year which is usually driven by other sectors of industry and that precludes any further deterioration in the Eurozone and shift in world trade balance towards the East. The big question is; how can farmers retain an appropriate share of value?
· Lower compliance costs? Don’t bank on any Government doing that.
· Increase subsidies? The European crisis will affect the next decade.
· Increase farmer ownership of value chains? Too late for the UK.
· Convince consumers to pay more? Yeah right.
· Change management and genetics to lower costs and raise productivity annually? The only realistic option, as farmers can only change what is inside the farm gate.
Each farmer should form a strategy to maintain profit as their suppliers and outlets will want their share as product prices track upwards due to world demand. Remember that farmers are price takers, buying retail, selling wholesale and paying the freight both ways.
In following blogs I will discuss the innovation which proved effective for NZ pastoral farmers to survive and prosper when overnight all seemed doomed to financial collapse. Many of these changes are relevant to the slow squeeze being put on UK pastoral farmers especially in the threat of subsidy review.
About the author Murray Rohloff:
@Global ovine
Sheep genetics and management consultant
Eight years at Invermay Agricultural Research Centre in sheep reproduction physiology (prolific flock management, breed comparisons and lamb survival studies).
Twenty five years as a leading progressive ram breeder. Awareka rams mated over half a million commercial ewes annually. Many Awareka sires have featured as trait leaders on SILACE. An instigator of Sheep Improvement Ltd. (industry owned national sheep recording facility) and instigator and leading breeder for host resistance to internal parasites. The Awareka flock was sold in 2008 and has since won the most awards for maternal breeds in the NZ Sheep Industry Awards under its new ownership since their inception in 2012.
Increased involvement in strategic and business planning of farming and restructuring of veterinary businesses since 2002. During this time numerous visits to the UK and Ireland on instructional and speaking engagements organised by Teagasc, DARNI, SAC, Eblex, HCC and Suffolk Breed Society. Part of the set-up team for Sheep Ireland in 2008.
During the last 15 years have held ongoing science and advisory roles to AgResearch Ltd. (crown owned research provider) and Ovita Ltd. (research funding provider). Instigator and former chair of FT200, an industry owned sheep production and financial benchmarking provider.
Evaluated novel genetics for out-of-season lambing, especially 3 lambings in 2 years. The original importer of Charollais and Ile de France sheep breeds, now farmed in Otago under joint ventures. Chair of Charollais breed society.
A joint venture owner of EasyRams UK based near Ellesmere.
Specialist field is strategic planning of agricultural businesses to be more profitable through appropriate structures, goals, genetics and management.
Currently is a part time farmer with 350 Ile de France ewes on irrigated pasture in Central Otago.