Ag production - Achilles heel(s)

[TelesnaAg]

Take price and regs out of it, have we reached the ceiling for production?

Frost in oz us becoming more prevalent, causing major losses in broadacre and viticulture. In the 80s we were a more mixed farm or livestock only model,now we have alot on sole broadacre models.
Add the usual drought n floods...i cant see our production getting larger unless we get frost tolerant varieties.

Europe, too wet? Sfi...net zero programs?

Saskatchewan...to dry, endless droughts?

Russia, wet and sanctions.

China, wet n droughts plus if they make a move on taiwan...they limit there trade opportunities.

Countries with rapid population growth better learn to grow food because it may not be there to buy.

In oz with an ageing land ownership group, we have alot of land siting idle.

Ant...

 

[nxy]

How can you take price and regs out of it?

Right after Russia went into Ukraine quite a significant area of sunflowers was grown around here. Some of the growers were first timers and in some cases the lack of experience and the lack of suitability of some of the land showed but it still became an important crop in the space of one season. Why? 1000 euros a Tonne that's why . If it happened again the same would happen again but people would do it better a second time.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Have a cherry Grove gone in just down the road. Now that's a one crop wonder... How many times do we get unseasonably rain in December that will cause them to split...... Very brave in my book.

 

[Magnus Oyke]

Take price and regs out of it, have we reached the ceiling for production?

Frost in oz us becoming more prevalent, causing major losses in broadacre and viticulture. In the 80s we were a more mixed farm or livestock only model,now we have alot on sole broadacre models.
Add the usual drought n floods...i cant see our production getting larger unless we get frost tolerant varieties.

Europe, too wet? Sfi...net zero programs?

Saskatchewan...to dry, endless droughts?

Russia, wet and sanctions.

China, wet n droughts plus if they make a move on taiwan...they limit there trade opportunities.

Countries with rapid population growth better learn to grow food because it may not be there to buy.

In oz with an ageing land ownership group, we have alot of land siting idle.

Ant...

Come again? I thought global warming meant things are getting hotter and Australia was already fairly warm. Now you're telling me you are getting more frosts? Magnus can't compute....

 

[essex man]

Take price and regs out of it, have we reached the ceiling for production?

Frost in oz us becoming more prevalent, causing major losses in broadacre and viticulture. In the 80s we were a more mixed farm or livestock only model,now we have alot on sole broadacre models.
Add the usual drought n floods...i cant see our production getting larger unless we get frost tolerant varieties.

Europe, too wet? Sfi...net zero programs?

Saskatchewan...to dry, endless droughts?

Russia, wet and sanctions.

China, wet n droughts plus if they make a move on taiwan...they limit there trade opportunities.

Countries with rapid population growth better learn to grow food because it may not be there to buy.

In oz with an ageing land ownership group, we have alot of land siting idle.

Ant...

Many on here moaning about low prices, wouldn't the opposite be happening if you are correct.
Price is the best indicator of this!
It doesn't indicate this!
No wonder you want to set it aside

 

[nxy]

Have a cherry Grove gone in just down the road. Now that's a one crop wonder... How many times do we get unseasonably rain in December that will cause them to split...... Very brave in my book.

My corner of France used to have Cherry orchards. Who picks the fruit in Oz? That's the problem here.

We bought a field that used to be a cherry orchard but was in grass. When we ploughed it we discovered the whole field was criss crossed with steel irrigation pipes dug in by hand about 20 cms deep. It has been a complete barsteward to clear them all and we still drag up some new undiscovered bit. To make matters worse there is a water main in the field. When I found a stop cock with the subsoiler I thought it was part of the old system so pulled it up with our jcb. Its surprisingly impressive when you pull up a big water main.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Pacific islanders (Papua New-Guinean's at the citrus farm next door to it.) , and Asians. Work like that is below Australian workers....They're to lazy.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Many on here moaning about low prices, wouldn't the opposite be happening if you are correct.
Price is the best indicator of this!
It doesn't indicate this!
No wonder you want to set it aside

No, because the removal of regulations by the shiny arses in politics for the sake of competition and cheap food for the masses has meant nothing but a transfer of wealth to processors and end of the food chain.....supermarkets.....
Why do you think farmers are whinging about low prices , yet food inflation has been the big driver for "inflation" driven economic policy for last 2 years.

 

[essex man]

No, because the removal of regulations by the shiny arses in politics for the sake of competition and cheap food for the masses has meant nothing but a transfer of wealth to processors and end of the food chain.....supermarkets.....
Why do you think farmers are whinging about low prices , yet food inflation has been the big driver for "inflation" driven economic policy for last 2 years.

You think the price of wheat is unrelated to production?
Yes food inflation has been a driver of inflation, farmers have benefited from this.

 

[glasshouse]

Take price and regs out of it, have we reached the ceiling for production?

Frost in oz us becoming more prevalent, causing major losses in broadacre and viticulture. In the 80s we were a more mixed farm or livestock only model,now we have alot on sole broadacre models.
Add the usual drought n floods...i cant see our production getting larger unless we get frost tolerant varieties.

Europe, too wet? Sfi...net zero programs?

Saskatchewan...to dry, endless droughts?

Russia, wet and sanctions.

China, wet n droughts plus if they make a move on taiwan...they limit there trade opportunities.

Countries with rapid population growth better learn to grow food because it may not be there to buy.

In oz with an ageing land ownership group, we have alot of land siting idle.

Ant...

Where is it sitting idle?

 

[principal skinner]

You think the price of wheat is unrelated to production?
Yes food inflation has been a driver of inflation, farmers have benefited from this.

Price of wheat is totally unrelated to production. Hedge funds and politics controls it.

 

[essex man]

Price of wheat is totally unrelated to production. Hedge funds and politics controls it.

That's ridiculous.
You believe production could be zero and no price reaction?

 

[principal skinner]

That's ridiculous.
You believe production could be zero and no price reaction?

Ok then, uk poor harvest, Europe poor harvest, world stocks tight. Why is wheat sub £200?

Was told last year that something like 90% of Chigaco wheat future trades have no human interaction. Algorithms and hedge funds.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Where is it sitting idle?

Plenty sitting idle here in the once very productive Goulburn Valley. Ex dairy and orchard land now doing sweet f all...

 

[Tarw Coch]

Come again? I thought global warming meant things are getting hotter and Australia was already fairly warm. Now you're telling me you are getting more frosts? Magnus can't compute....

Global warming is so last century, it’s climate change now

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Global warming is so last century, it’s climate change now

Anyway. You still get frosts in a desert 🏜
It's related to cloud cover or lack of. Which obviously also means a lack of cloud to bring rain.

 

[essex man]

Ok then, uk poor harvest, Europe poor harvest, world stocks tight. Why is wheat sub £200?

Was told last year that something like 90% of Chigaco wheat future trades have no human interaction. Algorithms and hedge funds.

Russia and ukraine exporting tens of millions of tons for one thing but there are numerous others.
Grain prices are affected predominately by production in the key exporters.
Trades having no human interaction does not mean that they are disconnected from supply and demand.
Amd hang on, a minute ago you were on about hedge funds controlling the grain price...involving human interaction obviously.
Poor harvests here and nearby mean that the price is not as low as it would otherwise be.

 

[essex man]

Ok then, uk poor harvest, Europe poor harvest, world stocks tight. Why is wheat sub £200?

Was told last year that something like 90% of Chigaco wheat future trades have no human interaction. Algorithms and hedge funds.

Hedge funds make money off the back of price movements caused by fundamentals, they don't care what the wheat price is.

 

[principal skinner]

Russia and ukraine exporting tens of millions of tons for one thing but there are numerous others.
Grain prices are affected predominately by production in the key exporters.
Trades having no human interaction does not mean that they are disconnected from supply and demand.
Amd hang on, a minute ago you were on about hedge funds controlling the grain price...involving human interaction obviously.
Poor harvests here and nearby mean that the price is not as low as it would otherwise be.

Where does a hedge fund need human interaction? The big ones are making multiple trades every second and that’s not by little Jonny sitting at his desk!

The writing is on the wall, Russia already exported too much, planting conditions across Europe and U.K. not great, late frosts in Oz, dry in South America, Canada goes from drought to drought and world supply’s are tight. So why has wheat been driven down to the level it’s at?

 

[principal skinner]

Hedge funds make money off the back of price movements caused by fundamentals, they don't care what the wheat price is.

They care very much about the price when multiple shorts need to be covered