Agents’ cheery outlook post-BPS

[Bracklandbarn]

But do you honestly believe any tenancies given up will go to new entrants . Our estate is mostly AHAs, but as soon as a farm becomes available, the land has been let on an FBT to the highest bidder or lately, one preferred tenant.
The agents told me that they envisage just two tenants eventually on the whole estate.
sadly in my opinion, there’s 3 farmsteads with houses lying empty, as the owners don’t seem bothered about spending on them to bring them up to legal letting requirements or selling them.
oh and there’s a few of my neighbours, past retirement age, that are still fit and active and very good farmers, despite paying rent . I remember one old retired tenant saying that being tenants made us better farmers, as we had to be to pay the rent.

No, I certainly don’t think that they would go to “new entrants”. Having grown up on a tenanted estate, my experience is much the same as what you are describing, hence I dropped everything, moved East and now run 700 ewes on fag packet arrangements in electric fencing from a semi detached house. however I have never completely given up on the hope that something in my area may come available. Washing out a livestock trailer on your garden, Cade lambs in the garage and a dead bin in a neighbours yard isn’t really where I want to be in 5 years time- therefore I am ever the optimist!! I suppose the bug bear is that whilst I personally know of some very good older farmers still turning a healthy profit on AHA tenancies, I also see (both at “home” and my current location) farmers who have mothballed their whole farm to see out their days, worse still in my eyes then sub letting (surely contravening their tenancy ag?!) I suppose my hope is that whether they go to “new entrants” or not,that they are replaced with someone who can progress their business now. This is what I hoped the loss of BPS would encourage

 

[midlandslad]

1) I have a good feeling there will be dosh to be made in arable farming in the short term.

2) but there is always more to be gained by land values changing.

I'd say sod £100/AC more income if land values are strong.

The

do you really think there is going to be a headlong rush into retirement

I doubt it, farmers are stubborn creatures. However this transition plan is making people think a bit harder about the future.

 

[vinnie123]

If somebody takes the £250/ac retirement payoff will the entitlements for the farm be as good as sold ,so that the next generation cannot claim anything other than new enviro type payments?

Surely “entitlements “ are over ?

 

[Hilly]

Along with diversification

Not very good if that’s needed though is it.

 

[Steevo]

In Scotland I think the total income from farming is less than all subs , I'm not sure if they mean profit or income in that measure though, I think they mean profit though.

“Total Income from Farming (TIFF) is the official measure of the profit (income minus costs) gained by the agriculture industry in Scotland.”

Total Income from Farming Estimates: 2017-2019

Total Income from Farming (TIFF) is the official measure of the profit gained by the agriculture industry in Scotland. It provides a breakdown of the value of farm production, subsidies and costs.

www.gov.scot

It’s misleading imo. It means taxable income attributed to individuals, i.e profit.

 

[steveR]

Lol I somehow doubt it!

Livestock essential for long-term soil health. Animals provide far more than meat, and utilise huge amounts of produce rejected by humans.

Far too valuable to lose

Nah.... The huge soup vats of gloop, that is then going to be used to feed the tech that manufactures the "meat" , will run on anything... Left overs into AD, then onto the land.

Soylent Green anyone?

 

[Secret Agronomist]

“Total Income from Farming (TIFF) is the official measure of the profit (income minus costs) gained by the agriculture industry in Scotland.”

Total Income from Farming Estimates: 2017-2019

Total Income from Farming (TIFF) is the official measure of the profit gained by the agriculture industry in Scotland. It provides a breakdown of the value of farm production, subsidies and costs.

www.gov.scot

It’s misleading imo. It means taxable income attributed to individuals, i.e profit.

Maybe its to do with the acronym TIFF rather than TPFF , or maybe profit is a dirty word.

 

[Hjwise]

The ELM scheme is nothing more than a pacifier for farmers for the removal of BPS, the payout is to speed up the process and to remove the people most attached to it. No doubt the strongest and fittest will survive at world prices, but anyone who thinks the current morons in charge have the best wishes of UK ag at heart are sadly mistaken. In fact just the opposite - they will happily see the UK import it’s food and export it’s pollution if it helps meet the net zero target.

 

[Secret Agronomist]

Not very good if that’s needed though is it.

Its just an alternative income stream though, same as having cereals, sheep, cows, pigs, etc etc. Just another strand to land use surely. They seem to look at farming differently elsewhere, in many countries farmers have forests for winter employment etc. They might work in ski resorts, drive trucks etc etc. Nothing wrong with having diverse income streams. I certainly don't think I'll of people who diversify, in fact they are to be admired, they just get on with it instead of blaming the government, landlords, neighbours and the like. There is far too much wallowing in self pity sometimes instead of accepting the reality of the situation.

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

In Scotland I think the total income from farming is less than all subs , I'm not sure if they mean profit or income in that measure though, I think they mean profit though.

When I first heard a quote that almost 80% of farm income in Wales was subsidy I, like you, questioned whether they really meant profit. The answer was no, they actually meant what they said!

 

[robs1]

When I first heard a quote that almost 80% of farm income in Wales was subsidy I, like you, questioned whether they really meant profit. The answer was no, they actually meant what they said!

Are these figures the profit including depreciation or after capital allowances or drawings/family labour ? Depending on which it could make a huge difference in the real situation

 

[Tarw Coch]

Are these figures the profit including depreciation or after capital allowances or drawings/family labour ? Depending on which it could make a huge difference in the real situation

He seemed quite adamant it was income.

I don’t believe it, there’s no way income could be that low

 

[Steevo]

Are these figures the profit including depreciation or after capital allowances or drawings/family labour ? Depending on which it could make a huge difference in the real situation

“Total income from farming (TIFF) measures the return to farmers, partners and directors, their spouses and other family workers for their labour, management input and own capital invested.”

NI agricultural incomes | Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs

The provisional estimates for agricultural incomes in Northern Ireland for 2022, including historical estimates from 2010, at both industry aggregate

www.daera-ni.gov.uk

It’s a very misleading term in my opinion!

 

[Secret Agronomist]

“Total income from farming (TIFF) measures the return to farmers, partners and directors, their spouses and other family workers for their labour, management input and own capital invested.”

NI agricultural incomes | Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs

The provisional estimates for agricultural incomes in Northern Ireland for 2022, including historical estimates from 2010, at both industry aggregate

www.daera-ni.gov.uk

It’s a very misleading term in my opinion!

I suppose as long as the way of measuring is kept consistent over the long term it shows trends .

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

He seemed quite adamant it was income.

I don’t believe it, there’s no way income could be that low

That's what I'm thinking. It was official data from DEFRA so perhaps it was using the definition quoted above......

 

[neilo]

I was thinking...take the payment.....buy a combine....

The ‘golden handshake’ is part of the English scheme, and I’m not sure if WAG are running with the same idea, so you may not have the option under our great devolved system of governance.

As there are different schemes either side of the border, could an English farmer take the cash to ‘retire’, sell up, and start up as a new entrant on a Welsh holding? I doubt the different agencies would be willing to cooperate enough to stop it happening.

 

[toquark]

Recently attended a zoom meeting with a respected independent land agent. He described the next 5 yrs as the biggest change in Farming in a lifetime. He painted a fairly bleak picture of agric under the Tory government’s funding plans, none of which encourage food production:

> £40K BPS will be £19k in 2024!!
> New schemes (ELMS , Carbon trading, etc) collectively will not nearly replace BPS monetarily
> 75% farms are NOT profitable w/o BPS. (obv depend on weather/prices)
> Post Brexit exporting bureaucracy will incur costs which will be borne at the farmgate. Prices will be more volatile too

He foresees 3 types of farm streams going forward:

1 Out and out large commercial hi-tech farms

2 ‘Environmental farmers’ taking advantage of schemes carbon trading, natural capital.

3 Farmers exit sector altogether taking a one off Govt payment of 250/ac to do so

He missed one.

4 Part timers.

 

[4course]

The talked about scheme to pay a farmer to retire and leave the industry does not come anywhere near the amount that would be needed to create a pension that would give anywhere near a reasonable income so as I see it this idea is not going to work on any scale

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

The talked about scheme to pay a farmer to retire and leave the industry does not come anywhere near the amount that would be needed to create a pension that would give anywhere near a reasonable income so as I see it this idea is not going to work on any scale

Especially when you factor in that a tenant will have to provide themselves with a house somehow. They won't qualify for priority for public housing so it'll either be private rented or buy.

 

[roscoe erf]

Not sure how it would be policed either. Say you were to get out. Sell up. Then buy a house.....with a 100 acre garden.......and a shed.......to house some tractors........

£250 / acre to retire ? Think I'd be wanting at least £2500 ? Greedy ? Moi ?



yet again its the arable prairie farmers that benefit from these schemes