Agents’ cheery outlook post-BPS

[Simon Chiles]

Exactly, a £28 rise in wheat price would offset my BPS, then we can really start to farm properly without tipping our caps to all the inefficient red tape, and constantly moving goalposts, oh sorry I was dreaming for a minute, they will always want to control us, so will dream up more schemes to keep us under control!

I’d concentrate on reducing your input costs whilst maintaining your current yield to achieve the same, but more realistic, outcome.

Edited. Note to self not to post whilst doing something else at the same time.

 

[ajd132]

Basically you have to be really good at what you do.

 

[glasshouse]

I’d concentrate on reducing your input costs whilst maintaining your current yield to achieve the same, but more realistic, outcome. If your figures are correct £10/tonne should do it.

So what are u going to chop?
Dream on

 

[Fake it ‘til you make it]

What does it achieve for the government though? I still can't see why they would even bother with such a payment.

Waste of taxpayers’ money IMO

 

[GeorgeK]

It's sounding like tier 1 of ELMS may still pay without farmers having to make many changes. There aren't many details yet but it's looking like it will pay for things like hedges and margins, maybe cultivation and tramlines across slopes, reduced inputs, direct drilling and cover crops. It probably won't be any more onerous to comply with than BPS and cross compliance are now, but it won't pay as much

 

[Spud]

So what are u going to chop?
Dream on

If you think you can't trim any costs at all, the future isn't going to be very bright at all for you.

 

[AT Aloss]

After 50yrs experience of "end of uk ag" scenarios from joining EU , McCsharry reforms , IACS introduction , BPS Introduction, leaving the EU and a host from diseases FM , Blue tongue, Scellemburg , I've learnt to sit back look at what you can do within your means to brace for any rough waves that may come you way , AND REMEMBER 2 things ---- 1) things probably won't be as bad as predicted and 2) if a Agent tells you anything , DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE!!!!!

Probably the best bit of advice anyone has ever put on TFF

 

[DrWazzock]

Better marketing would have made up for loss of BPS many a year here. All done sat at the telephone, the device that probably effects greater influence on my profit than any other machine. Now where’s my crystal ball.

 

[Johnnyboxer]

Lol I somehow doubt it!

Livestock essential for long-term soil health. Animals provide far more than meat, and utilise huge amounts of produce rejected by humans.

Far too valuable to lose

I doubt it ....Meat will be synthetic and grown in labs

Real meat will wither ongoing and once our generation (050’s) has died out, youngsters will eat anything easy

Look at lots of u40’s from towns, most don’t or cannot cook real food

Plant based food is being pushed hard by supermarkets

Youngsters couldn’t give a stuff about soil health (most wouldn’t understand anyway) and as long as their Netflix is working then they’re happy

Waste food? It’ll all go in a digester mate, for power

Never in a cow or bullock

 

[lloyd]

Its not so much a paper bag, more a high security prison. While there is a free market in land rentals then its an iron economic law that any payments to 'farmers' will end up partly or entirely in the pockets of 'landowners', via higher rents and capital values. Of course sometimes those two groups are in fact the same people, but equally lots aren't.

Why everyone continues to be ignorant of this fact, or pretend it doesn't exist escapes me.

Plenty of grade 1 and 2 land let on short term tenancies without bps
for maize,potatoes,sugar beet,asparagus, strawberries etc cant see
these rents falling at all infact probably increase due to the expanding
nature of agri businesses.

 

[Fat Lamb]

£5k a year to agents . Who pays this?
it’s simple enough to do your own BPS etc.

Farm managers who don't necessarily have to turn a profit (just as long as they don't make a loss). These do exist.
Farmers who have other income streams. Therefore the farm doesn't have to stand alone on its own merits.
"farmers" who are loaded already thru inheritance/privilege and are effectively just "playing at it".
etc.

 

[ajd132]

Farm managers who don't necessarily have to turn a profit (just as long as they don't make a loss). These do exist.
Farmers who have other income streams. Therefore the farm doesn't have to stand alone on its own merits.
"farmers" who are loaded already thru inheritance/privilege and are effectively just "playing at it".
etc.

Interestingly some of the most up in arms I’ve met about bps going are those with large inherited estates and lifestyles to suit!

 

[DrWazzock]

It's sounding like tier 1 of ELMS may still pay without farmers having to make many changes. There aren't many details yet but it's looking like it will pay for things like hedges and margins, maybe cultivation and tramlines across slopes, reduced inputs, direct drilling and cover crops. It probably won't be any more onerous to comply with than BPS and cross compliance are now, but it won't pay as much

Aye it’s all starting all over again. The meetings, the workshops, the piles of bumf, the websites and on line tools. All to shake it about a bit and carry on claiming after a year or three of shenanigans. Reminds me of the stores computer system we used to have at work. It cost £50 in admin to get any item booked out. The boss sent me out to Musgraves tool shop in town for a bag of hide faced mallets with. £20 note out of his own wallet as it was cheaper and a lot less rigmarole.
I reckon it will be similar for every bush and tree that finally gets planted after the 5 year consultation process. The sweat and cost on bureaucracy will dwarf what ends up on the ground.

 

[Farma Parma]

£250 / acre to retire ? Think I'd be wanting at least £2500 ? Greedy ? Moi ?

id like to think surrendering my AHA tenancy is worth more than that but thats a real big if.....

 

[4course]

I cannot see £250/ac tempting many unless they are on there last legs, you need about £15k / yr just to survive these days let alone live a half decent retirement.

I think its great if it removes stubborn old sods so a younger generation can have a go. The best farmers and the wealthiest farmers will survive from what i can see.

this stubborn old sod wont be tempted

 

[Farma Parma]

I see.....I haven't met a young person with the money to be able to buy/rent a farm, shell out on the working capital to get it running and not draw any income for 12months+ with no government support. Even those "older" farmers with masses of assets behind them are struggling.

Perhaps I'm looking in the wrong places......

your not this whole oh lets pay the old farmers off & get new blood in from scratch is floored from the outset.
how many of us followed on from our fathers & seen the lean times & struggled thru.
we all had one major helping hand, the farm was there, you had some gear etc etc

 

[Steevo]

It's sounding like tier 1 of ELMS may still pay without farmers having to make many changes. There aren't many details yet but it's looking like it will pay for things like hedges and margins, maybe cultivation and tramlines across slopes, reduced inputs, direct drilling and cover crops. It probably won't be any more onerous to comply with than BPS and cross compliance are now, but it won't pay as much

It will also probably tie farmers up in knots, paperwork and forms, for something like a £5k per year payment.

Personally I can't see people bothering given the potential risk of fines, inspections etc. The reward isn't worth the risk.

 

[yellow belly]

In the 1920s to 1930s
the only farms that survived were ones with sons to carry on
the rest gave up or went bust
in the 1930 a number of new entrants started up in farming

many of the above farmers expanded and purchased their farms over the next 30 years for the lowest land price relative to grain veg meat and milk prices ever seen

 

[4course]

The future of UK farming will be around strict cost management, better understanding of our customers and getting closer to them imho. Do that and we have a positive future.

there are plenty already close to their customers or put another way in hoc to a multi national

 

[Steevo]

In the 1920s to 1930s
the only farms that survived were ones with sons to carry on
the rest gave up or went bust
in the 1930 a number of new entrants started up in farming

many of the above farmers expanded and purchased their farms over the next 30 years for the lowest land price relative to grain veg meat and milk prices ever seen

Probably helped that food production was valued from 1939 onwards......

What might have happened had there not been a war is an interesting thought.