Australian livestock Industry Price Collapse

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Simple way to fix it. Boxed beef rather than live export.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

1500 .

They will be 650 ish kg and fat, hoping for 1,800 a head but if i cover the buying and freight ill be doing alot better than most.

They may only go for 1200, if thas the case the new ones will be under 500 a head.

Ant...

Exactly. What it comes down to is the cost to grow them out. If it's economical to do so people will still buy them.

 

[Doc]

Indo situation is all politics.

 

[kiwi pom]

Indo situation is all politics.

Perhaps the Yanks need to step in and buy more Australian produce?
They are using the country as a forward operating base for their military after all.

 

[Farmer Roy]

Isn’t this farming. Hasn’t it always been farming. The sheep farm my daughter was on in NSW got rid of half their sheep this year because they were expecting drought. The cattle farm she’s on now stocked up on feed. In Kenya we expect problems with the rains that will come with El Niño. It’s farming it’s a tough life in the unsupported world.

it’s how it is

it’s how it’s always been


Australia has always been a land of extremes ( not wanting to get into a climate change debate, but I believe those extremes are becoming more volatile & we are probably the first to feel those effects )

The biggest trick is realising this & the next trick is being able to manage it

the biggest mistake is assuming that “average” or “normal” conditions & prices are actually average & normal

I will also firmly state that I am against any form of government subsidies or long term payments to agriculture, to manage against cyclical / predictable / manageable scenarios like “drought” or low market prices . . .



PS - I was going to avoid commenting on this thread, but I ended up doing it anyway

 

[TelesnaAg]

Perhaps the Yanks need to step in and buy more Australian produce?
They are using the country as a forward operating base for their military after all.

We had low export numbers due to our local.price being high plus dollar at 70 plus cents.

Exports have definitely picked up and i suspect by this xmas will be rampant, hence exporters dream, low dollar, low cattle prices, good overseas price at the other end.

Crop prices are still ok plus dairy, has been alot of frost damage so there will be hay throughout nsw without the horrendous freight charge, which is another factor now, the cost of freight.

During covid alot of new truck imports stopped and local built ones slowed to a crawl due to parts.

So the big trucking companies started paying big money for late model smick trades and repainting them so they had there numbers, alot of cartage cintractors with 1 or a few trucks sold out and got what they paid or more for those trucks.

So now we wont have the amount of trucks around to cart the hay from vic to nsw to qld, plus 2 dolla fuel and taxes, it takes what was viable 5 years ago to being unviable now.

Ant...

 

[Lowland1]

Where my daughter is they aren't destocking but they are running out of grazing so they are feeding almond shells and pellets and the price of hay apparently is going down. It's about holding your nerve I suppose.

 

[Farmer Roy]

Where my daughter is they aren't destocking but they are running out of grazing so they are feeding almond shells and pellets and the price of hay apparently is going down. It's about holding your nerve I suppose.

with livestock, there are 2 main strategies

destock early ( thus saving $$ & keeping your land in better condition / better able to recover when seasons change ), sit it out & then buy early before everyone else has time to recover . . .

Or - hang on, keep spending $$$ & buying in feed, in “hope” of things turning around soon before you have spent more money than the animals are worth, or find that you can’t afford to spend any more $$ & there is still no market for them or they are that poor they are unsalable

the first strategy is THE best for long term ( years ) drought conditions, the second one only really works in the short term, if you are trying to maintain condition on store cattle you intend selling soon, or trying to maintain a core breeding herd or genetics . . . ( personally I believe the whole “preserving genetics” is bull sh!t, as I don’t care who you are, you will always be able to buy better stock than you have now )

Either way, it is a big management decision & one that needs to be made early

for people who get it wrong - well, that happens. I have always been firmly against any form of “drought aid”, that bails people out of poor decisions or takes the responsibility away from them. There is no excuse to have starving stock.

yes, I’m a harsh kàrnt, but this is a harsh land that doesn’t forgive people who don’t respect & understand it

 

[Farmer Roy]

If you are farming in Australia & don’t expect droughts / floods or variable markets, if you don’t plan for them & manage for them, then frankly, you are a deluded idiot who is better off doing something else . . .

 

[unlacedgecko]

with livestock, there are 2 main strategies

destock early ( thus saving $$ & keeping your land in better condition / better able to recover when seasons change ), sit it out & then buy early before everyone else has time to recover . . .

Or - hang on, keep spending $$$ & buying in feed, in “hope” of things turning around soon before you have spent more money than the animals are worth, or find that you can’t afford to spend any more $$ & there is still no market for them or they are that poor they are unsalable

the first strategy is THE best for long term ( years ) drought conditions, the second one only really works in the short term, if you are trying to maintain condition on store cattle you intend selling soon, or trying to maintain a core breeding herd or genetics . . .

Either way, it is a big management decision & one that needs to be made early

for people who get it wrong - well, that happens. I have always been firmly against any form of “drought aid”, that bails people out of poor decisions or takes the responsibility away from them. There is no excuse to have starving stock.

yes, I’m a harsh kàrnt, but this is a harsh land that doesn’t forgive people who don’t respect & understand it

I agree entirely

 

[icanshootwell]

More fool them for carrying too much stock when history tells them a disaster comes along every couple of years. Even here in the uk i keep less stock than i did to reduce the ever increasing risk and expense of possible drought and longer wet winters. They ought to farm less for better prices if they had any sense.

Most of the farms in the UK are over stocked, pressure on health, over use of wormer drench's that don't work anymore due to over use. Lack of clean ground basically.

 

[unlacedgecko]

Most of the farms in the UK are over stocked, pressure on health, over use of wormer drench's that don't work anymore due to over use. Lack of clean ground basically.

I suspect most UK farms are under stocked, and over grazed, to paraphrase Johann Zietsmann.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

We had low export numbers due to our local.price being high plus dollar at 70 plus cents.

Exports have definitely picked up and i suspect by this xmas will be rampant, hence exporters dream, low dollar, low cattle prices, good overseas price at the other end.

Crop prices are still ok plus dairy, has been alot of frost damage so there will be hay throughout nsw without the horrendous freight charge, which is another factor now, the cost of freight.

During covid alot of new truck imports stopped and local built ones slowed to a crawl due to parts.

So the big trucking companies started paying big money for late model smick trades and repainting them so they had there numbers, alot of cartage cintractors with 1 or a few trucks sold out and got what they paid or more for those trucks.

So now we wont have the amount of trucks around to cart the hay from vic to nsw to qld, plus 2 dolla fuel and taxes, it takes what was viable 5 years ago to being unviable now.

Ant...

Hay trading to Queensland feedlots at $550 delivered. Already had one transport operator / trader saying he will take everything I can get him.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

^^^^
So this plus light to moderate frosting .Plus no combine contractor fees has strongly influenced my on farm decision. That plus I have storage, plus mouths to feed of our own if the job turns pear shaped.... But given the interest I've had in hay. (3 phone calls Thursday) I strongly believe the demand will be there for GOOD hay.
Plus I'm not a grain marketer and don't have storage , so are at the mercy of harvest price and quality deductions they always manage to pull out of their asses. So I'm baling the lot.

 

[glasshouse]

Oz is land of extremes
Weather
Prices
Distances
Boom and bust is the norm
Yield can vary by ten fold yr to yr

 

[borderterribles]

More fool them for carrying too much stock when history tells them a disaster comes along every couple of years. Even here in the uk i keep less stock than i did to reduce the ever increasing risk and expense of possible drought and longer wet winters. They ought to farm less for better prices if they had any sense.

That's obvious to anyone with an ounce of sense, but the way that farming has evolved ie, produce enough to feed your immediate family and sell the surplus leads farmers to think that everyone else should produce less whilst they produce more to take advantage of the increased prices . This is why nationally imposed quotas on production work ( briefly anyway) and its also why farmers generally don't like nationally imposed quotas!

 

[Hilly]

The worry is, not for me, but for the country, no if, but when there are food shortages, will we have the infrastructure to increase production? If land has been abandoned or for that matter, all the young people have trained for jobs in town will they want to come back to farm or for that matter have the knowledge to be able to?

I would t worry about that , stuff the lot of them .

 

[Humble Village Farmer]

No obstacles in Africa. You've just got to be really tough.

I"ve been robbed at gunpoint and found the next door neighbour shot dead on his verandah ( I reckon I know at least 10 people who have been murdered ). I've had cows eaten by hyaena and leopard and had dogs speared by Maasai whilst chasing them off our grazing. There's no real law and order and white people aren't wanted. Climate wise it's a bit like Australia either too wet or too dry. There's no real markets it's hard to get spare parts etc. We get a lot of crop damage from wildlife and theft is rife.

 

[glasshouse]

That's obvious to anyone with an ounce of sense, but the way that farming has evolved ie, produce enough to feed your immediate family and sell the surplus leads farmers to think that everyone else should produce less whilst they produce more to take advantage of the increased prices . This is why nationally imposed quotas on production work ( briefly anyway) and its also why farmers generally don't like nationally imposed quotas!

Farmers are their own worst enemy.
They moaned about the milk board, look what happened there.
They moaned about the spud board, look at that now.
Set aside was an effective quota and raised prices to a sustainable level, but the nerds couldnt wait to get rid.
20% set aside in 94-96 were best years ever

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Dairy prices have remained high here compared to world price. Reason? Proccessor demand is outstripping Supply. As simple as that. My greatest fear now is that due to falling numbers and volume, there will be a contraction of processors. Retail demand will still be there. But if we get to a point of rationalization and end up with one or two like NZ then they have control again and profits don't have to be passed on.
One thing is a given though. Contraction of the dairy industry here WILL continue as the cost of entry is so high, workers are like unicorns and retiring farmers will continue unabated.