Hilly
Member
- Location
- Scottish Borders.
Brexit: serious risks to UK farm income from leaving the EU - report commissioned by NFU
- Thread starter llamedos
- Start date
arbel
Member
- Location
- Pembrokeshire
That is correct. The Chinese are now our bessie mates and Cameron and Osborne did not want to offend them. They should try exporting our dairy products to China and see the huge firewalls they have in place to make this trade virtually impossible !!
- Location
- Limousin
I take your point, but at the moment it looks like something dirty Des has just made up to humour his UKIP chums, as no one else has reported it.
RobFZS
Member
They wanted to put tariffs on chinese steel, but the eu wanted to go the whole hog and stick tarrifs on alot of other things, so it was either everything or nothing, so they voted against it. Anna soubry mentioned alot of the products they wanted to put tariffs on the other week on question time, but they're not gonna make an epic fuss about it while trying to campaign to stay in the eu.
the express does put out alot of horseshit, but they're vaguely right on this one.
the express does put out alot of horseshit, but they're vaguely right on this one.
Hilly
Member
- Location
- Scottish Borders.
NZ not in EU and they do well for themselves.
- Location
- Shropshire
Hilly
Member
- Location
- Scottish Borders.
Ha maybe not then !
Hilly
Member
- Location
- Scottish Borders.
I like the comment, "the more conservative farmer has less debt" Some will never learn, any tit can get into debt it takes a proper man to get out and stay out of debt in a low profitable enterprise like farming.
Paddy seems to have broken through those firewalls! If you guys can't organise a few loads of dairy products to China, I wouldn't be expecting too much from all that renegotiating and new trade deals BoJo and the likes are going to put in place post Brexit.
http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-milk-exports-1880771-Jan2015/
- Location
- Limousin
It doesn't look good. How much is this most expensive dairy land in the world costing them per ac @FonterraFarmer
arbel
Member
- Location
- Pembrokeshire
Well, I did broker the sale of 21 tons of block cheddar to China earlier this year, but it was a very tedious process. Right from the provision of all the documentation, product labelling and final clearance through their customs in Qinqdao. The latter required a 10p per kilo surcharge to affix labels after they objected to the originals being in font size 12. Font size 13 and a payment of over £2,000 opened the door.
When dealing with China, it is as you probably know, not a level playing field and I don't expect much from BoJo or his crowd.
But you are assuming that he will still be in a position to make decisions about such matters after Brexit? I somehow doubt that!
arbel
Member
- Location
- Pembrokeshire
My eldest daughter, who has a smallholding near Christchurch on the South Island of New Zealand says that the situation in their dairy industry is every bit as bad as ours here. With a very low population, they need to export about 90% of their production. Much of it went to China, as baby formula milk powder, but these sales are dropping away. The Chinese have a substantial dairy industry themselves and have also run into over production issues, despite producing a very inferior product.
What is winding up the New Zealanders is the number of dairy holdings being bought by the Chinese and I hear this is happening in Australia as well.
After Brexit, we should not assume that China is going to pick up the slack. There are many other trading nations out there.
FonterraFarmer
Member
- Location
- Waikato, New Zealand
In all honesty, I wouldn't know, I've always worked on the basis that you pay for land what you think its worth relative to what it produces, if people pay more than that , thats their choice.As for the media , when the chips are down, they'll stick the boot in, just like when Helen Clark said 15-20 years ago that "The dairy industry is a sunset industry", with judgement like that she will be entirely suited to be the next UN secretary general.
As for Fonterras debt, rather than looking at it in one year in isolation, I think you have to look at the big picture, as a part of a 5 year plan as one would expect that the debt to equity ratio should reduce over that time span, if not , the chop will start from the top.
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FonterraFarmer
Member
- Location
- Waikato, New Zealand
When dealing with China, just remember the odds are stacked against you before you start...
arbel
Member
- Location
- Pembrokeshire
When you speak of "they", I think we all have to consider that a Brexit will probably force some dramatic changes in government. I cannot see David Cameron and his supporters stepping easily from their pro EU position, to then running a country that had voted for exit.
Billhook
Member
FLEXIT
A slightly more scientific look at the possibilities of Brexit here and Agriculture starts on page 250
http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf
The six phases involve both short-term and longer-term negotiations, to achieve a measured, progressive separation. In the first phase, there are three possible ways of securing an exit. One is by rejoining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and trading with the remaining EU member states through the European Economic Area (EEA) – the so-called Norway Option. Another is the "shadow EEA" and the third we call the "Australian process".
Currently, €57 billion, or 40 percent of the EU budget is devoted to agricultural support in one form or another. About €4.0 billion is expended on UK agriculture and related activities, which would cease on withdrawal, unless alternative provision was made. Cessation could create a significant problem. Farming leaders are thus nervous about the possibility of leaving, especially as the strongest advocates of EU withdrawal tend to be those most opposed to farming subsidies. However, while the EU average total subsidy is about 18 percent of farming income, Norwegian farmers gain just short of 60 percent, only just ahead of Switzerland, while Iceland farmers are paid just short of 50 percent.740 In other words, those European farmers who are outside the EU benefit from much higher subsidies than those within the European Union.
Joining EFTA would give agriculture a ray of hope after Brexit.
Here are the countries listed by their GDP .
UK is number 5 in the world over twice that of Russia for all those accusing some of us as being "Little Englanders"
"Little Europeans" may be more accurate for the remain brigade.
http://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php
A slightly more scientific look at the possibilities of Brexit here and Agriculture starts on page 250
http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf
The six phases involve both short-term and longer-term negotiations, to achieve a measured, progressive separation. In the first phase, there are three possible ways of securing an exit. One is by rejoining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and trading with the remaining EU member states through the European Economic Area (EEA) – the so-called Norway Option. Another is the "shadow EEA" and the third we call the "Australian process".
Currently, €57 billion, or 40 percent of the EU budget is devoted to agricultural support in one form or another. About €4.0 billion is expended on UK agriculture and related activities, which would cease on withdrawal, unless alternative provision was made. Cessation could create a significant problem. Farming leaders are thus nervous about the possibility of leaving, especially as the strongest advocates of EU withdrawal tend to be those most opposed to farming subsidies. However, while the EU average total subsidy is about 18 percent of farming income, Norwegian farmers gain just short of 60 percent, only just ahead of Switzerland, while Iceland farmers are paid just short of 50 percent.740 In other words, those European farmers who are outside the EU benefit from much higher subsidies than those within the European Union.
Joining EFTA would give agriculture a ray of hope after Brexit.
Here are the countries listed by their GDP .
UK is number 5 in the world over twice that of Russia for all those accusing some of us as being "Little Englanders"
"Little Europeans" may be more accurate for the remain brigade.
http://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php
- Location
- Limousin
I would guess Cameron will step down in the event of a Brexit. Whether that then causes another general election remains to be seen. But I would like to see the pollsters trying to speculate on the outcome of that one.
- Location
- Limousin
Unfortunately our GDP (60%) is mostly derived from shopping rather than exporting, hence the governments desire to keep us spending and it's fear of a property value collapse. So we are basically importing goods to sell to ourselves with borrowed money.
Billhook
Member
One hundred years ago on April 13th 1916, my Grandfather was lying wounded at the bottom of a filthy trench at Souchez near Arras.
The resulting wound turned to gangrene and he had to have his leg amputated in July and was still a skeleton in October.
About seventy five years ago my father was flying Wellington and Warwick bombers and risking his life for our freedom from Nazi rule.
His great friend, a 16 stone rugby player, spent four years in a Japanese prison camp and came out weighing six stone.
A great many people have sacrificed a great deal to give us the freedom and sovereignty we have enjoyed for so long.
To give it away so cheaply is a great dishonour to them all.
This is way above any financial hardship in importance. When I hear people worrying about mobile roaming charges or increased airfares it is time that they put things in perspective.
It is a calculated risk to leave, as it is to remain, but these risks are insignificant compared to the risks people have taken in the World Wars, so even if there is some financial hardship,(and I have high hopes of things becoming better), I am prepared to suffer hardship as the price of self determination.
The resulting wound turned to gangrene and he had to have his leg amputated in July and was still a skeleton in October.
About seventy five years ago my father was flying Wellington and Warwick bombers and risking his life for our freedom from Nazi rule.
His great friend, a 16 stone rugby player, spent four years in a Japanese prison camp and came out weighing six stone.
A great many people have sacrificed a great deal to give us the freedom and sovereignty we have enjoyed for so long.
To give it away so cheaply is a great dishonour to them all.
This is way above any financial hardship in importance. When I hear people worrying about mobile roaming charges or increased airfares it is time that they put things in perspective.
It is a calculated risk to leave, as it is to remain, but these risks are insignificant compared to the risks people have taken in the World Wars, so even if there is some financial hardship,(and I have high hopes of things becoming better), I am prepared to suffer hardship as the price of self determination.