Brexit Venn

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Pasty

Member
Location
Devon
Very good but I suspect you need to change 'Acceptable to EU 27 states' to 'Acceptable to EU 2 states' and then all will fall into place. Good though.
 

Henarar

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Somerset
really ? All he is doing is showing the enormity of the task ahead.No harm in that surely?
sh!t stirring about something that hasn't happened yet
HHS is hacked off cos the fish woman hasn't come through for him, he wanted to be leaving but she has chickened out so he will have to leave with the rest of us or leave altogether :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
But there will have to be negotiations once article 50 is enacted.
I would suggest that there will be good days and dark days during that 2 yr period and off course nothing will be decided until the eleventh hour such is the nature of these things and of course at the end of it there is no guarantee of success.
I have no particular beef either way on this subject but you do appear to either blazay or in denial to the challenges ahead.
 

alex04w

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Co Antrim
My Venn will need a circle for Japanese business concerns too.
The document produced by their government is well worth reading.

You have mentioned Japan on a couple of threads as if they were some form of leading example of an economy.

This is the same country that has been in recession for a quarter of a century, has had more rounds of QE than most of us have had hot breakfasts, bought so many bonds under QE they ran out of bonds and now own half the stock market, have tried everything and cannot get their economy to work, and now propose another round of QE that will probably result in hyper inflation.

They are such a basket case at home they want to do or say anything that gets the spotlight off their complete failure e.g. meddle in Brexit. And you fell for it and thought it was a good read.

:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 

Pasty

Member
Location
Devon
You have mentioned Japan on a couple of threads as if they were some form of leading example of an economy.

This is the same country that has been in recession for a quarter of a century, has had more rounds of QE than most of us have had hot breakfasts, bought so many bonds under QE they ran out of bonds and now own half the stock market, have tried everything and cannot get their economy to work, and now propose another round of QE that will probably result in hyper inflation.

They are such a basket case at home they want to do or say anything that gets the spotlight off their complete failure e.g. meddle in Brexit. And you fell for it and thought it was a good read.

:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
Yeah but we should totally still listen to them. Not. What are they going to do? Nothing.
 

Jackov Altraids

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Devon
The answer seems quite simple to me.
We have to enact article 50 before the new year.
We then have to go all out on planning for a complete and total withdrawal from the EU. This may be contrary to EU legislation but what are they going to do about it. We can't wait for 2 years and be bent over a barrel.
There could then be the potential for a referendum on the 3 choices, in the new year of 2019;
A complete withdrawal from the EU,
Accept the deal offered by the other member states,
Agree to get back under our stone, stop whinging and go back to being a full [submissive] member of the EU.
 

Pasty

Member
Location
Devon
“If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected .”
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
 
You have mentioned Japan on a couple of threads as if they were some form of leading example of an economy.

This is the same country that has been in recession for a quarter of a century, has had more rounds of QE than most of us have had hot breakfasts, bought so many bonds under QE they ran out of bonds and now own half the stock market, have tried everything and cannot get their economy to work, and now propose another round of QE that will probably result in hyper inflation.

They are such a basket case at home they want to do or say anything that gets the spotlight off their complete failure e.g. meddle in Brexit. And you fell for it and thought it was a good read.

:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
is this the same Japan that has the third largest economy in the world and employs many thousands of workers in the UK?
 

RobFZS

Member
The answer seems quite simple to me.
We have to enact article 50 before the new year.
We then have to go all out on planning for a complete and total withdrawal from the EU. This may be contrary to EU legislation but what are they going to do about it. We can't wait for 2 years and be bent over a barrel.
There could then be the potential for a referendum on the 3 choices, in the new year of 2019;
A complete withdrawal from the EU,
Accept the deal offered by the other member states,
Agree to get back under our stone, stop whinging and go back to being a full [submissive] member of the EU.
Hard brexit won't happen, we'll end up being in the EEA as a step out of the eu, in a full on process for leaving while getting the complete entanglement with the eu undone, which will frankly take years, it took 40 years to get in to this mess, it certainly won't take 2 to get out without massive damage

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=251

Much of the speculation around what Britain should attempt to negotiate centres around what Britain shouldn't do rather than what it should. On the one hand we have John Mills of Labour Leave, absolutely adamant that the suicidal WTO option is a possibility and on the other we have Andrew Tyrie in an Open Europe report ruling out all of the options including the EEA.

"The UK need not replicate the arrangements of other countries" he asserts. It "will want more market access than Canada, whose trade deal with the EU contains only limited provisions on services, and more control and influence than Norway, which is a passive recipient of single market regulation."

This is cake and eat it stuff. Tyrie recognises the failings of the WTO option and that it should be avoided at all costs. The basis for this is that the WTO option says nothing of recognition of standards along with all the other issues surrounding non-tariff barriers. He recognises that a Canada deal is insufficient and so he leans toward a comprehensive and close relationship with the EU.

It appears he wants the same level of participation as Norway but a direct say over the rules. Some might say that is EU membership. However this blog would challenge the assertion that Norway is "a passive recipient of single market regulation". It isn't. As much as there is direct consultation and a veto mechanism within the agreement, Norway gets an enhanced say in the rules by way of being full participants in the global bodies where the rules are made. Tyrie make no real mention of this. He is merely repeating empty mantras.

This though is a common view and an enraged Tweeter informs us that "Britain does not need or want prior agreements. We can make our own agreement, not cobble together someone else's". Indeed we can make our own agreement but if we want to negotiate something as comprehensive as the EEA then we are looking at six to eight years of negotiation. Tyrie remarks that his fantasy scenario will indeed take more than two years and believes that some unspecified "transitional arrangement" will fill the void. There are no details as to what this looks like.

What critics of the EEA miss is that the EEA agreement is not just an agreement on single market participation. It is an interface mechanism with its own infrastructure for constant review and reform for the purposes of entering special conditions, exemptions and reservations. And so though we may be adopting an agreement that someone else has, there are mechanisms to tailor the agreement to the needs of the UK, be that enhanced controls over freedom of movement or better consultation on regulations.

Because it is a system of continuous development, including efforts to extend financial services access it is not set in stone. Far from cobbling together a copy of the Norway agreement we would simply be using the same conduits into the EU. The purpose of joining it is that as an agreement to which we are already a party, we would simply be switching sides, the groundwork for which we could do before even triggering Article 50 which means part of the process can be under way without having to negotiate and extension. We can have concurrent negotiations.

Once we have transitioned into EEA status we then use the mechanisms and processes to further negotiate our exit issue by issue, leaving things that work untouched. We then have no need of bespoke transitional agreements because the EEA very much is a bespoke transitional agreement with a view to eventually leaving the single market to participate in the global rules based system as it develops.

Opponents of the EEA really need to explain what the point of reinventing the wheel is. Why should we create unnecessary uncertainty to achieve much the same as what already exists? Moreover, the EU is not especially keen on a patchwork of agreements like Switzerland which need constant unstructured attention where neither side is happy with it. If it doesn't want that then why would it want to replicate an EEA style agreement solely for the benefit of the UK when it already has an interface mechanism for non-EU market participants?

More to the point, why add the complication to something which need not be complex? Effectively the EEA serves as a Brexit safe space with no cliff edges where the process of exit happens at a pace that doesn't disturb business.

What Tyrie is doing is closing down the debate, rubbishing entirely viable options in favour of a lengthy and risky process for no real advantage. You could point out the numerous deficiencies in the EEA agreement where Norway suffers, but the obvious point is that we are not Norway. We have market clout and we have world leading industries which means we have a strong hand when we seek new annexes to the agreement.

Moreover there is a structured means of reviewing the EEA agreement. Entering some custom final agreement means we have to persuade the EU to open it up for review in the future. The EEA already has review systems in place so we can revisit things we get wrong.

As to immigration, the EEA does have safeguard measures on freedom of movement and we can leverage them into a more formal quota system within the EEA framework. That would be a strong start to immigration reform. This would be sufficient if we use the opportunity to also tackle non-EU immigration issues. We will still need a fairly high turnover of EU people and we do not want to close down opportunities for UK citizens living in the EU. One thing the UK does not want to do is cut its nose off to spite its face. Full control is neither necessary or desirable and the advantages are slender.

There is every reason to believe the EU would be amenable to EEA membership. Firstly a messy Brexit is damaging to the EU economy as a whole. Secondly, as discussed, a bespoke system is time consuming and will require ongoing use of diplomatic runtime for the next decade. Using that which is already in place requires only a marginal increase in resource. The alternatives to the EU require a gargantuan commitment of intellectual resources right about the time the EU needs to be directing its trade expertise elsewhere. Not least with the alleged imminent failure of TTIP and CETA.

The EU can either concede on Freedom of Movement for the sake of a cost effective Brexit or we can create risks and complications that serve nobody. There is no reason why we should accept freedom of movement as an EU red line since every other member wants similar concessions and at some point in the future the EU, if it wants to survive, it will have to bend to this dynamic. Nobody is happy with freedom of movement as it stands and a refusal to reform it is more likely to see others moving toward exit than any special concession for the UK.

When looking at the available options it would appear that the EEA is the instrument most people can live with. Scotland will want full single market participation and so will the forty eight per cent of the UK who voted to remain. There simply isn't a large enough majority for the hardline Brexit proposed by eurosceptic Tories. It would not bring the benefits they believe it does and a hard Brexit would be considered one of the greatest unforced political errors of all time. By the same token, attempting a bespoke agreement would be considered a curiously pointless waste of energy.

From the beginning The Leave Alliance has maintained that Brexit is a process, not an event. The EEA is far from ideal but in the very first instance it does return control over some crucial areas of policy which gives us enough to be getting on with. The structure of the agreement means that we can revisit the process at our leisure and provides the least disruption for the EU and the UK which is ultimately what the markets want too. There is no value in attempting to appease the unappeasable by pursuing a hard Brexit because it will not deliver in its promises. Tory fantasies of "free trade" are for the birds. Nowhere in the real world does this exist.

It is to our great bemusement that there is such an irrational phobia of the EEA. It is is the most pragmatic, most flexible means of leaving the EU and it is not set in stone even after the fact. The often repeated canard that Norway has no influence is demonstrably untrue, as is the assertion that the EEA means accepting full EU freedom of movement. It is our view that those who persist in repeating these mantras do so for less than honest reasons.
 

Pasty

Member
Location
Devon
is this the same Japan that has the third largest economy in the world and employs many thousands of workers in the UK?
It is but they are the 3rd by GDP (stand to be corrected) and propped up by debt. Massive debt. People are already saying the if we fall to the 6th or 7th largest by GDP then BREXIT will be a failure. It's 2 different ways of looking at things. GDP / Debt. Then surplus / defecit. It's where you are and where you are going. Everyone is trying to trade themselves out of a mess.
 

Pasty

Member
Location
Devon
Hard brexit won't happen, we'll end up being in the EEA as a step out of the eu, in a full on process for leaving while getting the complete entanglement with the eu undone, which will frankly take years, it took 40 years to get in to this mess, it certainly won't take 2 to get out without massive damage
Fine by me. We are out of the EU which is a busted flush. THAT is the important thing. If it takes 40 years to sort this out, our great grandchildren may thank us for it.
 

RobFZS

Member
Fine by me. We are out of the EU which is a busted flush. THAT is the important thing. If it takes 40 years to sort this out, our great grandchildren may thank us for it.
EEA interim option is like having the stabilisers on the bike through this learning stage for our government, we have lost our trading instinct - which is a consequence of EU membership. To our eternal shame. Now we correct that.
 

Greenenergyfunder

Member
The EU "dream" is held together by Germany and France and you only need to see that both incumbent Governments are struggling in their polls - even Merkel's party was beaten by an Anti-Islam party in a poll over the weekend and I think busted flush sums up perfectly where the EU is.
I didn't vote for May, but I have been impressed by her calm approach thus far and yet the press (who were partly responsible for Brexit) and her political opponents seem to be desperate to criticise and snipe at what she is doing.
I wouldn't be 100% sure that by the time we invoked article 50 and then spent 2 years extricating ourselves that the main thrust of the EU has disintegrated amongst anti-immigration, anti-establishment and anti-austerity movements in the major EU players.
 

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Man fined £300 for bonfire-related waste offences

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Written by William Kellett from Agriland

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A man has pleaded guilty at Newtownards Magistrates’ Court to waste offences relating to a bonfire next to the electrical sub-station on the Circular Road in Newtownards, Co. Down.

Gareth Gill (51) of Abbot’s Walk, Newtownards pleaded guilty to two charges under the Waste and Contaminated Land (Northern Ireland) Order 1997, for which he was fined £150 each and ordered to pay a £15 offender’s levy

On June 25, 2018, PSNI officers went to Gill’s yard, where they found a large amount of waste consisting of scrap wood, pallets, carpet and underlay.

Discussion with Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA) officers confirmed the site...
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