- Location
- Perthshire (It's a big place!)
I sell probably 1t/acre of wheat around sowing time if the price is at all palatable then pick away at it over the next year. Usually have the last of the crop sold by the end of the year in which it is harvested (sold, not moved). I just stick to doing this as I've been burnt on the way down and up Its easier to take long term gambles if its your own money! Also I can fix wheat, milling oats and to a certain extent feed barley. But my single biggest cereal crop is now rye and until recently it's been a complete punt, so I need to spread the risk somehow. Besides which there is enough other risk in the business anyway with most of the cash flow coming from potatoes (50% on a fixed price) and carrots.What really doesn’t work is changing your strategy every year, based on what happened the previous year. Forward sellers miss some of a rising market but prices go down as well as up. They can drift down for longer than they rise too. There is no right or wrong answer - have a strategy and stick to it to get what is hopefully a good average.
You can’t get it right every time. Any TFF poster who tells you they do is a liar!