Combinables Price Tracker

gone

Member
Location
Carlow Ireland
The reduction in Ukrainian grain exports has been over estimated all last season. Between over land exports and Russian exports of Ukrainian stolen grain, total exports of Ukrainian grain is around 85% of a 5 year average. The size and importance of the Ukrainian grain was also completely over blown, I even saw one stupid commentary state that Ukraine grows 30% of global grains.
But for the last few weeks the market has been under estimating the issues.
China is the biggest grower of wheat and facing serious losses, their losses will dwarf any reduction in Ukraine.
India is the 2nd biggest wheat grower and is facing a poor harvest, even their modest reduction will be on a par with the reduction in Ukraine.
Add to that North America looking poor, Australia will not repeat their bumper harvest and South America very unlikely to repeat theirs.
All points to a rising market for me, I will not be selling at current prices.
 

Andrew1983

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Black Isle
Saw this on Twitter re worst wheat abandonment since 1917 in Midwest
 

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