Crisis, what Crisis?

[ski]

Following on from other threads is it different this time?

Farming has often been accused of crying wolf all the time, but is valid now? I think the mix of over supply in most agricultural commodities, pound vs euro rates, reducing sfp, China, Russia and the rise in cost of farmland makes it look like we are facing real difficulties. If so are we seeing a turning point which none saw coming. ( I seem to recollect reading about 3 years ago an Andersons report saying the next 10 years were to be boom, boom, and boom for farming and the banks were saying much the same. )

But surely if this is the case the churn it may cause in the industry must have an upside and will allow in new entrants and create new opportunities? Is that the silver lining?

 

[Sonoftheheir]

It is bad, but it has been bad several times in the past 25 years I have been working. If you take a long term average things are ok I suppose?

 

[joe soapy]

Round here in Devon you can see field after field that has had no fert, not been cut or grazed yet.
there has to be opportunities for new entrants to make use of, just the connections have not been made yet. Its very hard for an older farmer to take the decision to let somebody in, and the younger would be farmers cant see a return to give tham an incentive to knock on doors even if the land is virtually free.
Something totally unexpected will come along to change this, just dont know how soon

 

[milkloss]

It is bad, but it has been bad several times in the past 25 years I have been working. If you take a long term average things are ok I suppose?

I think the 'gearing' is much worse now than it would have been in the past. Land prices on the slide, machinery purchased when wheat was 200 quid or milk 35p. An interest rate rise of any significance is going to plant a lot of businesses in the carp?

 

[Condi]

Its always been the same! Wheat price goes up, people plant more, supply increase, wheat price goes down, people plant less, supply side decreases, wheat price goes up....

Long term price graph since 1900. USc/bushel, but the shape of it will be exactly the same as it would be in £/t. Graph points down in general due to bigger farms, bigger machinery, higher yields.. all making up cheap food.

T'was ever thus.

 

[cattleman123]

Round here in Devon you can see field after field that has had no fert, not been cut or grazed yet.
there has to be opportunities for new entrants to make use of, just the connections have not been made yet. Its very hard for an older farmer to take the decision to let somebody in, and the younger would be farmers cant see a return to give tham an incentive to knock on doors even if the land is virtually free.
Something totally unexpected will come along to change this, just dont know how soon

Hey i live in Devon and and i cant see them...

 

[joe soapy]

That graph shows we due a big spike pretty soon

 

[DRC]

I wonder how new entrants can make a go of it, if established farmers can't ?
More likely that big farms will get bigger. Even farms of my size, have largely become feeder farms for the bigger dairy units or AD plants, growing maize or wholecrop.
The worry is, how many dairy farms survive.

 

[buffalo_soldier]

That graph shows we due a big spike pretty soon

Isn't that what we are told every time?

 

[Condi]

That graph shows we due a big spike pretty soon

The graph stops in 2005/6 (?). Have you already forgotten that wheat was £200/t only 2 years ago!? That was the big spike. On that graph it was 10/11 $/bushel.

 

[buffalo_soldier]

I don't know what others think but it seems to have a different "feel" to it this time round

 

[jondear]

Hey i live in Devon and and i cant see them...

Same here .!I think it depends on what part .Devon's a big county and changes from each parish. Every acre around here is much sort after. With large dairy farms .Ad plant and the od millionaire with money to bury.

 

[banjo]

Very good thread, all I can talk about is myself and I'm finding things hard going this year regarding income.
There seems to be a bit of a lull before everyone knows the total of their income this year and most don't actually know what is going to happen regarding the bps system. Many of my friends seem to be the same, but no one is talking about it.
I honestly don't know the answer, and I will be reading the replays to this thread.

 

[DRC]

And yet my landlords agents, still think we should agree to another rent rise. They're not living in the real world.

 

[Big Blue Yonder]

And yet my landlords agents, still think we should agree to another rent rise. They're not living in the real world.

I have just had my rise, which I really did not agree and they could not justify but they were willing to go to land court

 

[DaveGrohl]

Its always been the same! Wheat price goes up, people plant more, supply increase, wheat price goes down, people plant less, supply side decreases, wheat price goes up....

Long term price graph since 1900. USc/bushel, but the shape of it will be exactly the same as it would be in £/t. Graph points down in general due to bigger farms, bigger machinery, higher yields.. all making up cheap food.

T'was ever thus.

View attachment 180474

Has that graph been adjusted for inflation? I bloody hope so otherwise non-farmers could look at it and wonder wtf anyone would ever farm!!

 

[tanker]

I can only speak for myself&what I see&hear around here...I don't think the dairy industry is crying wolf,every actual dairy farmer I speak to working at the coalface is extremely fearful of where we're going..

 

[J 1177]

Very good thread, all I can talk about is myself and I'm finding things hard going this year regarding income.
There seems to be a bit of a lull before everyone knows the total of their income this year and most don't actually know what is going to happen regarding the bps system. Many of my friends seem to be the same, but no one is talking about it.
I honestly don't know the answer, and I will be reading the replays to this thread.

As regards to spending we are sitting back and spending as little as poss. We are unsure of our yearly income at the moment (bps included) we have had a couple of hps run out on machinery and we would normally buy something else but not this year. The uncertainty is worrying.

When talking to machinery reps this seems to be a common theme

 

[Campbell]

A sobering thought, but if BPS,SFP is removed from the equation, most are plunged into the real world of boom or bust business.

 

[Giles1]

RBS are starting to get real,well to sniff an opportunity anyway.SFP north of the border they reckon will not be paid until April.That will really sting.We were told they are looking at setting up bridging loans to carry folk over the 4/5 months wait.So much for an understanding government.Guessed this would happen months ago.Not rocket science,but combined with high inputs and impossible to predict markets and crappy weather up here,could be set for an interesting winter.Little hay about,the Carse boys will be sweating,probably like any hay that has been made...I'm told by a dealer there is plenty of last years round bale silage left too.Neighbour has had enough and sold up to forestry,kids not interested.That will be another bunch of ewes and cattle away from the hills.