Frontier Agriculture
Member
World markets
US wheat markets ended only slightly lower yesterday despite larger losses in corn. Funds were active sellers in other commodities but wheat was the exception to the rule, with very little interest change made to the already record fund short. Forecasts continue to suggest warmer temperatures but showers have now been added and there is no extreme heat. The US winter wheat harvest is now 89% harvested which is close to average for the time of year. Spring wheat is now 10% harvested with ratings 2% down on last year but unchanged from last week at 68% good to excellent. US exports are well ahead of last week.
Argentina is forecast widespread rain this week which will further delay plantings. Conditions are ideal in Canada, Australia is still getting good showers and the Bureau of Meteorology predicts that La Niña weather model will be weak if it develops.
European weather continues to take the limelight with ongoing rain across northern France and Germany causing harvest delays and possibly further quality issues. Specific weights and yields show no sign of improving in France, which is now 50% through its harvest. It is not yet clear where the market will go to replace French milling wheat. Early reports from Germany are ok but there is not enough cut for any meaningful data yet. French farmers are not active sellers today. Matif represents a 74kg spec and delivery against this looks like it will be an issue.
A Russian newspaper reports that the Agriculture Ministry wants to suspend the wheat export tax for this season. Russia is currently the world’s biggest exporter and is expected to produce a record harvest this year. Egypt tenders today. In light of poor French quality it has been buying Black Sea wheat in recent tenders.
UK market
London wheat continues to move in a narrow price range with low volumes again yesterday. Towards the end of the day, weaker sterling and a small lift from Chicago helped London close £1.00/t higher.
OSR market
Markets took a beating yesterday as weather forecasts showed rain moving into the Midwest, which is expected to limit any heat damage to soybeans currently pod filling. Combined with an improved soybean crop rating, crude oil prices plummeting due to an increase in inventory stocks in the US and a weak macroeconomic outlook, this caused funds to bail on their large long positions in Chicago.
EU rapeseed import estimates were increased yesterday as a result of the poorer yield in the EU due to bad weather. Imports are likely to come from Canada and Australia where bumper crops are expected.
US wheat markets ended only slightly lower yesterday despite larger losses in corn. Funds were active sellers in other commodities but wheat was the exception to the rule, with very little interest change made to the already record fund short. Forecasts continue to suggest warmer temperatures but showers have now been added and there is no extreme heat. The US winter wheat harvest is now 89% harvested which is close to average for the time of year. Spring wheat is now 10% harvested with ratings 2% down on last year but unchanged from last week at 68% good to excellent. US exports are well ahead of last week.
Argentina is forecast widespread rain this week which will further delay plantings. Conditions are ideal in Canada, Australia is still getting good showers and the Bureau of Meteorology predicts that La Niña weather model will be weak if it develops.
European weather continues to take the limelight with ongoing rain across northern France and Germany causing harvest delays and possibly further quality issues. Specific weights and yields show no sign of improving in France, which is now 50% through its harvest. It is not yet clear where the market will go to replace French milling wheat. Early reports from Germany are ok but there is not enough cut for any meaningful data yet. French farmers are not active sellers today. Matif represents a 74kg spec and delivery against this looks like it will be an issue.
A Russian newspaper reports that the Agriculture Ministry wants to suspend the wheat export tax for this season. Russia is currently the world’s biggest exporter and is expected to produce a record harvest this year. Egypt tenders today. In light of poor French quality it has been buying Black Sea wheat in recent tenders.
UK market
London wheat continues to move in a narrow price range with low volumes again yesterday. Towards the end of the day, weaker sterling and a small lift from Chicago helped London close £1.00/t higher.
OSR market
Markets took a beating yesterday as weather forecasts showed rain moving into the Midwest, which is expected to limit any heat damage to soybeans currently pod filling. Combined with an improved soybean crop rating, crude oil prices plummeting due to an increase in inventory stocks in the US and a weak macroeconomic outlook, this caused funds to bail on their large long positions in Chicago.
EU rapeseed import estimates were increased yesterday as a result of the poorer yield in the EU due to bad weather. Imports are likely to come from Canada and Australia where bumper crops are expected.