Frontier Agriculture
Member
World markets
Chicago wheat has fallen to the lowest level since 4th January as confidence increases in next week’s forecast which promises good rain across the driest parts of the Plains. As much as 2.5 inches of rain could fall next week which is well timed following the recent drop in crop ratings in Kansas. If this rain materialises, the last remaining Northern Hemisphere crop issue will be pushed down the danger scale considerably.
The euro hit its highest point since November yesterday, pushing Matif down to the lowest level in over a month during the day, though it did close up off the lows. European weather forecasts are still pointing towards below average rainfall across much of Europe but there is no real crop concern yet.
The trade spat between Turkey and Russia is ongoing. One source has lowered Egypt’s wheat imports to 11 million mt, 800’000mt below the last USDA estimate which was not really expected in light of its recent heavy tender activity.
UK market
UK wheat closed fractionally lower yesterday. London futures have now slipped £2.75/t from the contract highs. Chartists are still pointing at higher levels to come but the recent fall may have broken some long term trend lines, causing less confidence to the upside.
OSR market
Funds are 13.6mmt long on Chicago soybeans and seem determined to keep the price above $10/t no matter how big the South American crop is. The market is expected to remain flat until the all-important stocks and plantings report on 31st March. If the report provides some surprises, expect some big market swings.
Chicago wheat has fallen to the lowest level since 4th January as confidence increases in next week’s forecast which promises good rain across the driest parts of the Plains. As much as 2.5 inches of rain could fall next week which is well timed following the recent drop in crop ratings in Kansas. If this rain materialises, the last remaining Northern Hemisphere crop issue will be pushed down the danger scale considerably.
The euro hit its highest point since November yesterday, pushing Matif down to the lowest level in over a month during the day, though it did close up off the lows. European weather forecasts are still pointing towards below average rainfall across much of Europe but there is no real crop concern yet.
The trade spat between Turkey and Russia is ongoing. One source has lowered Egypt’s wheat imports to 11 million mt, 800’000mt below the last USDA estimate which was not really expected in light of its recent heavy tender activity.
UK market
UK wheat closed fractionally lower yesterday. London futures have now slipped £2.75/t from the contract highs. Chartists are still pointing at higher levels to come but the recent fall may have broken some long term trend lines, causing less confidence to the upside.
OSR market
Funds are 13.6mmt long on Chicago soybeans and seem determined to keep the price above $10/t no matter how big the South American crop is. The market is expected to remain flat until the all-important stocks and plantings report on 31st March. If the report provides some surprises, expect some big market swings.