Frontier Agriculture
Member
World markets
US wheat made reasonable gains last week on the back of cold and wet weather delaying spring plantings. Over the weekend, weather took a turn for the worse across the US Plains and Midwest, bringing freezing temperatures and snow storms. Winter wheat crops are advanced for the time of year due to earlier mild temperatures. Last week rated winter wheat crops at 42% headed versus an average of 34% headed at this time of year, so crops will have been susceptible to the freezing temperatures. There are also reports of heavy snowfall breaking stems and flattening fields. As a result, US markets rallied yesterday with funds active buyers as they look to cover in some of their substantial shorts in wheat. It will take some time to assess the extent of damage caused by the weekend’s weather. The forecast for the coming week is drier without further snow forecast but temperatures remain cold.
EU weather is slightly improved with some light rains in this week’s forecast but the Balkans, eastern Ukraine and parts of Russia remain dry. The EU was shut for the bank holiday yesterday but is expected to play catch up with higher US markets today.
UK market
London wheat closed £3.10/t higher over the week on Friday helped by a steady increase in the US. Whilst the UK has been closed for the bank holiday, the US rallied strongly leading to a stronger start for London wheat this morning.
OSR market
Gains in other agricultural products have spilled over into soybeans. Midwest weather is impacting both corn plantings and wheat crops and with funds short in all product, such a scare will inevitably lead to a run up in prices until normal service returns.
Rains across parts of Europe over the weekend helped to subdue bullish inclinations, but more rain is needed, certainly in parts of France. The May outlook seems to be showing higher than normal rainfall but until it materialises, questions remain on the rapeseed crop.
With record fund support in some agricultural commodities and weather uncertainties, we can expect short term support for the complex.
US wheat made reasonable gains last week on the back of cold and wet weather delaying spring plantings. Over the weekend, weather took a turn for the worse across the US Plains and Midwest, bringing freezing temperatures and snow storms. Winter wheat crops are advanced for the time of year due to earlier mild temperatures. Last week rated winter wheat crops at 42% headed versus an average of 34% headed at this time of year, so crops will have been susceptible to the freezing temperatures. There are also reports of heavy snowfall breaking stems and flattening fields. As a result, US markets rallied yesterday with funds active buyers as they look to cover in some of their substantial shorts in wheat. It will take some time to assess the extent of damage caused by the weekend’s weather. The forecast for the coming week is drier without further snow forecast but temperatures remain cold.
EU weather is slightly improved with some light rains in this week’s forecast but the Balkans, eastern Ukraine and parts of Russia remain dry. The EU was shut for the bank holiday yesterday but is expected to play catch up with higher US markets today.
UK market
London wheat closed £3.10/t higher over the week on Friday helped by a steady increase in the US. Whilst the UK has been closed for the bank holiday, the US rallied strongly leading to a stronger start for London wheat this morning.
OSR market
Gains in other agricultural products have spilled over into soybeans. Midwest weather is impacting both corn plantings and wheat crops and with funds short in all product, such a scare will inevitably lead to a run up in prices until normal service returns.
Rains across parts of Europe over the weekend helped to subdue bullish inclinations, but more rain is needed, certainly in parts of France. The May outlook seems to be showing higher than normal rainfall but until it materialises, questions remain on the rapeseed crop.
With record fund support in some agricultural commodities and weather uncertainties, we can expect short term support for the complex.