Frontier Agriculture
Member
World markets
US wheat futures fell 2% on Wednesday on profit taking after forecasts of beneficial rains in the Southern Plains and Black Sea region.
In an AHDB conference yesterday analyst Jack Watts talked of a potential decline in Russian production due to export tax. The Telegraph has pointed to a move back to the plough in Russia as the country is the face of tumbling oil prices.
India, the world’s second largest wheat producer, is said to be considering raising its import tax from 10 to 25%. Earlier this year importers and flour mills bought 500,000mt of Australian milling wheat.
UK markets
Early gains on London futures yesterday faded away as other markets pulled back. The main trade was again the exit from the Nov ‘15 position ahead of next week’s first tender date.
The AHDB has delayed issuing its cereal and oilseed crop data due today as it seeks to ensure its robustness. Last week the NFU and Defra wheat production estimates were released at some 500,000mt apart; it has since been announced that last week’s numbers should be ‘treated with caution’ and the production number is consequently expected to be lifted considerably.
OSR markets
Although rains have accelerated planting in Brazil, some areas remain very dry. However, this won’t be of major concern for at least another three weeks.
The heat and dryness in Australia is coming to an end with much cooler weather forecast over the next 7 days.
Canadian canola is now put at 14.3mmt vs. last month’s estimates of 13.3mmt.
Sterling regained some of its strength against the euro yesterday after the big fall on Tuesday. As a result, UK OSR values had £3/t wiped off due to the change in currency alone.
Overall, there is currently nothing bullish about oilseeds but there has been some risk premium added into the market due to the Brazilian dryness.
US wheat futures fell 2% on Wednesday on profit taking after forecasts of beneficial rains in the Southern Plains and Black Sea region.
In an AHDB conference yesterday analyst Jack Watts talked of a potential decline in Russian production due to export tax. The Telegraph has pointed to a move back to the plough in Russia as the country is the face of tumbling oil prices.
India, the world’s second largest wheat producer, is said to be considering raising its import tax from 10 to 25%. Earlier this year importers and flour mills bought 500,000mt of Australian milling wheat.
UK markets
Early gains on London futures yesterday faded away as other markets pulled back. The main trade was again the exit from the Nov ‘15 position ahead of next week’s first tender date.
The AHDB has delayed issuing its cereal and oilseed crop data due today as it seeks to ensure its robustness. Last week the NFU and Defra wheat production estimates were released at some 500,000mt apart; it has since been announced that last week’s numbers should be ‘treated with caution’ and the production number is consequently expected to be lifted considerably.
OSR markets
Although rains have accelerated planting in Brazil, some areas remain very dry. However, this won’t be of major concern for at least another three weeks.
The heat and dryness in Australia is coming to an end with much cooler weather forecast over the next 7 days.
Canadian canola is now put at 14.3mmt vs. last month’s estimates of 13.3mmt.
Sterling regained some of its strength against the euro yesterday after the big fall on Tuesday. As a result, UK OSR values had £3/t wiped off due to the change in currency alone.
Overall, there is currently nothing bullish about oilseeds but there has been some risk premium added into the market due to the Brazilian dryness.
