Drought

[shakerator]

is it just me or is there a danger of serious moisture deficits going into June? Cool temperatures have masked the problem up until now, but June pressure looks higher than average. I'm not sure whether the situation is the same in the rest of Western Europe, but it is one reason why I will be rolling some grain into the new season

Any thoughts ?

 

[Brisel]

Do you have any soil moisture deficit figures for your area vs "normal" ones?

57.5mm rain here so far in May,
27.5 April
30.5 March
76 Feb
120 Jan

Hardly a drought in Dorset nor a great reason for a £75/t bull run given world stock levels.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries
Nogger's Blog has some useful maps of rainfall averages http://nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.co.uk/

 

[average farmer]

Yes things are looking a bit dry out there, only got wheat left to sell, and one load of barley, but I'm going to hold out until I need the money or the sheds are over flowing. Got some Hybrid rye to harvest that should bring some monies in.

 

[yellow belly]

we are a bit dry here but where my spring crops are the drains ran when it rained last week

in early may the drains were damp under wheat
we missed all the rain in april but got enough in may

my father remembers 1976 when we had enough in may then the drought in june july august rained on bank holiday and had 30 day of 30degrees

I have enough moisture for good yields if it does not rain again but only need an inch at grain fill for higher yields than last year
in 1996 we only had an inch a month from feb to july and averaged 4 tonne with hereward

 

[Y Fan Wen]

650mm since new year

 

[Muck Spreader]

It's been fairly dry here as well:-
Feb 56mm
Mar 44mm
Apr 22mm
May 51mm so far.

 

[franklin]

It is certainly dry, but I dont think we need much more rain now.

 

[Lincsman]

It hasnt dried out from last summer yet here, next rain required will be mid sept.. heavy clay below sea level is good sometimes!

 

[warksfarmer]

156mm this year but only 28mm so far in May.

 

[fudge]

No rain thanks. Bit more sun please.

 

[Muddyboots]

Agree with the op that cool temps are masking a moisture deficit here, a week of hot sunshine will put us in a yield robbing drought situation.

 

[Sonoftheheir]

Very dry in spud ridges where clay patches are in the fields. Quite dry overall, but that is usual I would say. Had 36mm here in May,about the average.

 

[richard hammond]

we are a bit dry here but where my spring crops are the drains ran when it rained last week

in early may the drains were damp under wheat
we missed all the rain in april but got enough in may

my father remembers 1976 when we had enough in may then the drought in june july august rained on bank holiday and had 30 day of 30degrees

I have enough moisture for good yields if it does not rain again but only need an inch at grain fill for higher yields than last year
in 1996 we only had an inch a month from feb to july and averaged 4 tonne with hereward

I do hope your right but those are brave speculative words all seasons are different, I am in mid lincs and have been walking crops
today that are showing drought damage that i believe the damage is already done, lower yields come out of early heading crops.

 

[shakerator]

What would be the practicalities of another 1976 in today's grain climate (no pun intended)?

 

[Muddyboots]

What would be the practicalities of another 1976 in today's grain climate (no pun intended)?

F------g disaster!!

 

[richard hammond]

What would be the practicalities of another 1976 in today's grain climate (no pun intended)?

What would your thoughts be? I am not looking forward to a potentially good harvest, just my thoughts!

 

[richard hammond]

F------g disaster!!

But I would not say a flipping disaster either..

 

[shakerator]

What would your thoughts be? I am not looking forward to a potentially good harvest, just my thoughts!

I feel that risks have been underestimated and the trade feels complacent about big global crops etc etc . Of course it could still be

If 76 were to repeat obviously physical would be king, and I'd expect huge disconnects between cash and futures markets

 

[richard hammond]

I feel that risks have been underestimated and the trade feels complacent about big global crops etc etc . Of course it could still be

If 76 were to repeat obviously physical would be king, and I'd expect huge disconnects between cash and futures markets

I am a very simple person and cannot quite gather all the info thrown into my small brain as to if the future harvest of the WORLD is going
to be good or bad. I listen to the trade, farmers, future traders etc and then ask opinions and then realize no body has got a clue what will REALLY happen.

 

[Minesapint]

Well the sun came out today and 20C, flag leaves curled on any wheat on the gravel, and its taking on that horrible dark colour, so unless we get some proper rain soon, its not looking too good. 24mm in May following dry April. Need that each week. Missed the rain last week which most around had.